基于多种TSM方法的北京国家奥林匹克体育中心2月颗粒物来源解析

利用HYSPLIT(Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory)模型和ERA_INTERIM数据,计算2013—2017年北京奥林匹克体育中心(以下简称奥体中心)2月期间抵达的72 h后向轨迹,并结合聚类分析方法和污染物浓度数据,分析2月不同轨迹对奥体中心污染物浓度的影响,采用四种不同的轨迹分析方法分析奥体中心污染物来源特征,并通过实例分析了不同轨迹分析方法的优缺点和适用性。结果表明:奥体中心2月主导气流明显,为西北路径,出现概率为55.85%;清洁通道为北向气流,污染来源为南向路径和偏东路径,对应颗粒物浓度最高;通过轨迹统计方法得到奥体中心2月颗粒物主要污染来源为河北地区、山东半岛、黄渤海区域、新疆北部与河西走廊。此外,研究发现潜在源贡献函数和浓度权重轨迹方法适用于近距离污染源的识别;停留时间浓度加权方法采用确定性办法通过迭代可以精准识别出北京奥体中心主要污染物来源;定量传输偏差分析方法引入不确定性概念,适用于大范围确定性污染源识别,但同时会产生虚假的污染物来源。不过,采用RTWC方法和QTBA方法相结合可消除QTBA方法带来的虚假污染源。     

GPS水汽反演技术在四川地区的应用研究

根据四川网络GPS站点附近的气压、温度计算了天顶静力学延迟量,经过综合分析,得到了最适于四川地区的天顶静力学延迟模型。建立了适于四川地区的加权平均温度计算公式,并说明了此公式的有效性。使用了全球气压和温度模型（GPT）代替实测气象数据进行水汽反演,将GPT可降水量与实测气象可降水量、探空数据可降水量以及实际降水量进行比较分析,得出了一些有益结论。     

北京夏季O3垂直分布与气象因子的相关研究

通过分析2000年7月26日～8月22日北京325 m气象塔的O3浓度梯度观测资料及同期的气象资料,探讨了O3与NOx、风速、风向、温度及相对湿度的关系.通过建立不同风向下O3浓度与NOx、温度、相对湿度及风速的多元回归方程,证实了高浓度的O3是NOx与气象条件综合作用的结果,利用可得到的气象资料及NOx浓度值进行O3污染预报的尝试是可行的.     

Using sediment rating parameters to evaluate the changes in sediment transport regimes in the middle Yellow River basin,China

This study analyses the changes in sediment transport regimes in the middle Yellow River basin (MYRB) using sediment rating parameters. Daily streamflow and suspended sediment concentration data were collected at 35 hydrological stations from the 1950s to 2016, which can be divided into three periods based on the type and intensity of human activities: the base stage before 1970, the restraining stage from 1971 to 1989, and the restoration stage after 2002. Data within each period were fitted by log‐linear sediment rating curves and the sediment rating parameters were utilized to analyse the spatial and temporal variations in sediment transport regimes. The results show that sediment rating parameters are indicative of sediment transport regimes. In the base stage and the restraining stage, the hydrological stations can be categorized into four groups based on their locations on the rating parameter plot. The stations with small drainage basins were characterized by the highest sediment transport regime, followed by those located in the coarse‐particle zone, the loess zone, and the mountainous/forest zone. In the restoration stage, the difference in sediment transport regimes between different geomorphic zones became less distinguishable than in previous stages. During the transition from the base stage to the restraining stage, sediment rating parameters showed no significant changes in sediment transport regimes in all four geomorphic groups. During the transition from the restraining stage to the restoration stage, significant changes were observed in the coarse‐particle zone and the mountain/forest zone, indicating that the revegetation programme and large reservoirs imposed a stronger influence on sediment transport regimes in these two zones than in the rest of the MYRB. This study provides theoretical support for evaluating sediment transport regimes with sediment rating parameters.     

南京河西地区岩土体剪切波速与土层深度的关系

南京河西地区是南京市重点开发的新市区,该区域工程地质条件相似,主要为长江高河漫滩地质地貌单元。本文选取该地区47个典型钻孔的岩土体剪切波速资料,采用三种数学模型进行统计回归分析,运用相关系数R（或测定系数R^2）检验Vs-H之间的线性相关关系,并根据计算的SD值选择较优的数学模型。统计结果表明,该地区各类岩土体的Vs-H线性相关关系显著,说明采用上述数学模型进行Vs-H回归是可行的。对两个工程场地进行剪切波速预测,并对场地类别作出划分,检验结果表明,该地区各类岩土体的Vs-H经验关系是可靠的,符合当地岩土特征,在样本深度范围内有足够的工程应用精度,可以应用。     

建立基于土地利用的交通发生量模型的研究

针对出行生成预测中变量众多以及多重相关性问题,以常州调查数据为样本,分别采用逐步回归分析方法和偏最小二乘回归（PLSR）方法,建立基于土地利用形态的交通发生量模型。并对两者建模方法进行分析比较．结果表明PLSR能有效地解决变量多重相关性问题,模型意义清晰,效果显著。     

Study on strength reduction factors considering the effect of classification of design earthquake

Introduction The strength reduction factor is defined as the lateral yielding strength required to avoid yielding in the system when subjected to a given ground motion, to the lateral yielding strength required to maintain the displacement ductility ratio demand equal to a pre-determined target duc-tility ratio under the same ground motion. The strength reduction factors are not only the key fac-tors in determining seismic action for force-based seismic design, but also one of the key parame-t…     

清水池震害综合预测方法

对基于池壁裂缝宽度预测清水池震害程度的方法进行了深入研究,该方法与清水池快速预测方法（如经验统计回归方法）相比有较强的理论依据,但是当池壁受拉钢筋应力超过其屈服应力时,采用该方法会导致计算结果与实际裂缝宽度不符。因此,壁板裂缝宽度方法适用于评定清水池轻微破坏及以下的震害等级,当清水池壁板受拉钢筋屈服后,应采用震害经验统计回归模型对清水池震害等级进行评定。建议将上述2种预测方法相结合作为清水池震害预测的综合方法。     

Chi-square regression for seismic strength parameter relations, and their uncertainties, with applications to an M w based earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe

A generalized chi-square regression approach to establishempirical relations between different types of seismic strengthparameters with uncertainties in all input data is presented anddiscussed in comparison with standard least-squares techniques.The chi-square technique can consider errors of individual entriesbut can also be applied when errors are not exactly known and onlyweaker quantitative constraints can be made. It can preserve thesymmetry of the derived relations and is preferred for complexregression models. Results for three types of regression modelsare presented for (1) a linear relation between M _Sand m _bfor events in the North Atlantic Ocean; (2) a quadratic relationbetween M _w and M _L forevents in central Europe; (3) linearrelations between M _L and I ₀,with logarithmic dependency ofthe focal depth, for several regions in central and northernEurope.     

Predicting ordinary kriging errors caused by surface roughness and dissectivity

The magnitude of kriging errors varies in accordance with the surface properties. The purpose of this paper is to determine the association of ordinary kriging (OK) estimated errors with the local variability of surface roughness, and to analyse the suitability of probabilistic models for predicting the magnitude of OK errors from surface parameters. This task includes determining the terrain parameters in order to explain the variation in the magnitude of OK errors. The results of this research indicate that the higher order regression models, with complex interaction terms, were able to explain 95 per cent of the variation in the OK error magnitude using the least number of predictors. In addition, the results underscore the importance of the role of the local diversity of relief properties in increasing or decreasing the magnitude of interpolation errors. The newly developed dissectivity parameters provide useful information for terrain analysis. Our study also provides constructive guides to understanding the local variation of interpolation errors and their dependence on surface dissectivity. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.