基于Sugeno型模糊推理的震中烈度预测模型

以Sugeno型模糊推理系统为基础,建立了以震级和震源深度为输入,以震中烈度为输出的震中烈度预测模型,并以四川地区震例数据为例,对模型构建的关键环节进行了详细的说明.通过与参考文献中的拟合模型进行预测数据对比分析,可得本文的推理预测模型精度更高,误差更小,且有更强的扩展性.     

西藏高烈度区农牧民安居工程中的试验数据知识和抗震模糊集

通过振动台模拟地震试验,对5个模型结构的试验结果进行了分析。从大量的试验数据和图形信息中提取抗震知识,建立抗震设防三水准对应的试验地震动强度和模型破坏状态的模糊集,为西藏地震高烈度区农牧民安居工程中采用可经受住强烈地震的结构类型和抗震措施,提供了评估依据。     

湖南猛洞河漂流气候舒适度评价及预报方程的建立

文章选取湖南省永顺县气象站1971-2000年各月的平均气温、相对湿度和风速资料,作为评价气候环境对漂流旅游舒适度的影响因子,对湖南省内著名的漂流景点、全国仅有的两条四星级漂流线路之一的猛洞河进行气候舒适度的模糊综合评判,并根据该评判模式建立了猛洞河漂流气象条件舒适度的预报方程。结果表明：(1)每年3-11月均可进行漂流旅游,其中气候条件较为舒适的时间为每年的5-9月,最为适宜的时间是6-8月,其中7-8月为漂流的旺季。(2)猛洞河气候舒适度判定结果与漂流景区的客流量相关程度达到0.859,表明气象因子是影响猛洞河漂流客流量的最主要因素。(3)在模糊综合评判的基础上,文章建立了猛洞河漂流每日气象条件舒适度预报方程,在实际应用中能为漂流游客提供指导。     

太子河流域水质模糊综合评价

采用模糊数学方法对太子河流域水质进行综合评价。沿程选取老官砬子、兴安、参窝坝下等8个干流断面和汤河桥、河洪桥、孟柳等6个支流断面,确定五日生化需氧量(BOD5)、化学需氧量(COD)、氨氮(NH3-N)、挥发酚(FN)等7个指标为评价因子,通过建立评价因子矩阵,计算各因子的权重及进行模糊综合运算,得出各监测断面的综合水质状况。水质模糊综合评价结果表明,太子河干流和支流各监测断面的综合水质较差,V类水质断面所占比例达85.7%。在各项评价指标中,BOD5和挥发酚所占权重较高,其次为COD和NH3-N等,这几项指标应该作为太子河流域十二.五污染减排和治理的重点。     

模糊数学在岩溶储层地热资源勘探风险评价中的应用——以重庆山地型岩溶热储为例

重庆市岩溶储层地热资源丰富,开发利用历史悠久,但地热资源勘探风险较大。本文利用模糊综合评价法建立了风险评价模型,该模型中包含了热储构造开启程度、热储构造部位、沟谷切割程度、物探效果、热储埋深、热储厚度、热储岩层倾角、热异常情况、热储层位9个风险因子,每个因子划分为风险小、风险中等、风险大3级,并对其进行量化处理。最后对全市23个高隆起背斜两翼46个相对独立的山地型高隆起岩溶地热田共79个地热单元进行了地热资源勘探风险模糊数学综合评判。结果表明,有18个单元为风险小,42个单元为风险中等,19个单元为风险大。风险小的地热田一般热储汇水面积较大、补给径流循环条件好、热储顶板埋深1000-1800 m、热储厚度≥300 m、热储岩层倾角25-40°、深部裂隙较发育;风险大的地热田热储汇水面积较小、补给径流循环条件差、热储顶板埋深≥2500 m、热储厚度〈200 m、热储岩倾角〈20°176;或≥40°176;、深部裂隙不发育;风险中等地热田的地质特征则介于二者之间。评价结果较好地反映出了重庆市岩溶热储地热资源勘探风险状况。     

Pumping-rate control for contaminated groundwater with VOCs by using fuzzy inference model

In this paper, a new method is proposed for the remediation of contaminated groundwater. The method is based on fuzzy inference and risk evaluation. The effectiveness of the presented method is assessed in numerical simulations. The main results of the study are as follows: 1) A pump-and-treat control algorithm was proposed by using the fuzzy inference and the human health risk calculation model, 2) It was found that applying the proposed algorithm was likely to reduce the pumped quantity, and 3) It was found that the proposed model can be used to notify residents of the human health risk; the model is based on the ASTM RBCA model for residents. A new fuzzy control system for contaminated groundwater can be used as a useful model for characterising the effects of contaminants on human health and providing helpful information on the human risk assessment of the contaminated groundwater site.     

关于有限群超可解性的一种新判定方法

利用子群的弱s-置换性质研究超可解子群的积的问题,并给出群的超可解性的一些判别方法。设群G可以表示为2个子群A和B的积,A在G中拟正规且B为超可解,如果A的Sylow子群的所有极大子群在G中弱s-置换,则G为超可解群。从而得到1个群为超可解群的这样的一种新判别法。     

φ积分型压缩条件下弱相容映象的几个公共不动点定理

为了强化理论知识的应用,在这篇论文中,利用度量空间中自映象的弱相容性条件,讨论φ积分型压缩条件的公共不动点存在性和唯一性问题,证明了几个新的公共不动点定理,文章改进和发展了Pathk,Verma和张勇等的结果。     

基于模糊理论的气象科研项目风险与绩效评估

通过对项目风险进行综合分析、审定,确立一种气象科研项目的立项风险评估指标及体系的准则;从风险角度出发,构建出一组多级指标的项目风险评估指标体系;采用定性和定量相结合的方法,提出一种基于模糊理论的风险评估体系和模型,对科研项目的立项进行综合评估,给出评估意见,给决策提供指导意见;同时,提出一种气象科研项目绩效考核及推广方法.     

Development and application of oil-spill risk assessment model for offshore pipeline

To the potential oil-spill risk caused by offshore pipeline more attention has been paid after the Dalian oil spill incident from oil-pipeline explosion. Since then an issue about how to prevent and control the sudden oil-spill from the offshore pipeline has been raised. In this paper, we proposed an optimized model to analyze the main causes （probability） of spill and the consequence with the fuzzy comprehensive assessment model. Considering the complicated assessment process for oil-spill, the assessment factor system involving the spill probability and consequence was established based on the operative manual and statistic leakage/damage data of offshore pipeline in order to estimate the integrated spill risk score automatically. The evaluated factors of spill probability could be grouped into five aspects：corrosion, fatigue, national damage, third party, and operational fault;the consequence evaluated factors of spill included hazard of oil and impact-controlling capability. With some modifications based on experts’ opinions, each of the evaluated factors in our work was developed with a relative weight and evaluation criterion. A test example for an offshore pipe-line in the Bohai waters was described to show how the model can be used for an actual case in more detail. By using the oil-spill risk assessment model, it is easy to determine the risk level associated with the ongoing activity and management level and hence to take the risk mitigation action immediately.