综合评价方法在水质评价应用中的比较研究

以黄河某取水口监测点19981999年的水质为评价对象,利用灰色关联分析法、模糊综合评价法和物元分析法分别进行了综合评价,结果表明,模糊综合评价和物元分析法的评价结果一致,"中心化"灰色关联法评价结果与上述两方法的评价结果一致.     

运用模糊数学法评价项城地下水水质

以频率统计法选择Hg、COD等评价因子,从隶属度、权重的计算以及模糊模型的选择等方面,详细介绍模糊数学法运用于项城市浅层地下水水质现状评价的过程,并结合综合指数评价结果对其进行简析.     

Fuzzy Optimization Neural Network Approach for Ice Forecast in the Inner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River/Approche d'Optimisation Floue de Réseau de Neurones pour la Prévision de la Glace Dans le Tronçon de Mongolie Intérieure du Fleuve Jaune

Abstract

In ice forecasting, a key problem is the forecast of freeze-up and break-up dates. Ice-water mechanics and the principle of heat-exchange were mainly adopted in previous research. However, the mathematical models in these studies are complex and many parameters are required in relation to upstream and/or downstream gauging stations. Moreover, too many assumptions or simplifications for these parameters and constraints directly lead to low accuracy of the models and limitations as to their practical applications. This paper develops a fuzzy optimization neural network approach for the forecast of freeze-up date and break-up date. The Inner Mongolia reach lies in the top north of the Yellow River, China. Almost every year ice floods occur because of its special geographical location, hydrometeorological conditions and river course characteristics. Therefore, it is of particular importance for ice flood prevention to forecast freeze-up date and break-up date accurately. A case study in this region shows that the proposed methodology may allow obtaining useful results.     

An integrated procedure to evaluate hydrological models

The growing concern for health‐related problems deriving from pollutants leaching is driving national and international administrations to support the development of tools for evaluating the effects of alternate management scenarios and identifying vulnerable areas. Cropping systems models are powerful tools for evaluating leachates under different environmental, social, and management conditions. As percolating water is the transport vehicle for pollutants transport in soil, a reliable evaluation of water balance models is a fundamental prerequisite for investigating pesticides and nitrate fate. As specific approaches for the evaluation of multi‐layer evolution of state variables are missing, we propose a fuzzy‐based, integrated indicator (I_SWC: 0, best; 1, worst) for a comprehensive evaluation of soil water content (SWC) simulations. We aggregated error metrics with others quantifying the homogeneity of errors across different soil layers, the capability of models to reproduce complex dynamics function of both time and soil depth, and model complexity. We tested I_SWC on a sample dataset where the models CropSyst and CERES‐Wheat were used to simulate SWC for winter wheat systems. I_SWC revealed that, in the explored conditions, the global assessment of the two models' performances allowed identification of CropSyst as the best (average I_SWC = 0·441, with a value of 0·537 obtained by CERES‐Wheat), although each model prevailed for some of the metrics. CropSyst presented the highest accuracy (average agreement module = 0·400), whereas CERES‐Wheat's accuracy was slightly worse, although achieved with a simplified modelling approach (average Akaike Information Criterion = − 230·44), thereby favouring large‐area applicability. The non‐univocal scores achieved by the models for the different metrics support the use of multi‐metric evaluation approaches for quantifying the different aspects of water balance model performances. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rangeland production: use of models incorporating aggregated knowledge and fuzzy construction

This work reports on a method using fuzzy membership functions to construct an aggregated interaction matrix in which the summation of variables is scaled according to the way rainfall and soil variables affect water availability to plants and hence influence rangeland productivity. Aggregation of the variables gives a comprehensive value which can be used to predict production. The model increases the predicability of production to 81% compared to models using rainfall alone and a multiplicative parametric one which give predictibilities of 61 and 76% respectively. The results showed that (1) the importance of rainfall in determining production was most important at lower rainfalls i.e. <350 mm; (2) soil texture and particularly slope were important through out the rainfall range (149–700 mm) investigated; and (3) soil depth was only important at the higher >350 mm rainfalls. The aggregated interaction matrix gives a measure of land productive capability.     

Fuzzy factorial analysis of snow avalanches

The mutual influence of 21 factors pertaining to terrain, weather, forest and snowpack have been discussed by 10 experts. The semantic (nil, weak, medium, high) evaluations are translated as membership degrees of fuzzy sets, and averaged between the experts by taking their fuzzy expectation value, yielding a 21 × 21 fuzzy matrix for direct interactions. Fuzzy successive multiplications and additions of the matrix give the indirect interactions. The activity and the passivity of the factors with respect to avalanches is represented by directed weighted graphs, and the average semantic values by a 4 × 4 matrix: the activity (passivity) is weak (strong) for tree damage; medium (nil) for altitude; medium (weak) for ground shape; medium (medium) for vegetation, soil, wind, microclimate, tree type, vertical distribution and mechanics of trees, snowpack distribution and snow gliding; strong (nil) for ground inclination and exposition, weather; strong (medium) for heat, precipitation, horizontal distribution of trees, snowpack constitution and stability.     

栅格图形数据叠置分析方法及其在城镇规划中应用

本文介绍用栅格数据进行图形叠置分析的方法,提出矢量数据转换为栅格数据的链拓扑法、减少栅格数据存储量的编码方法、根据模糊综合评判原理建立多因素综合评价数学模型以及叠置评价结果的类型格网合并的边界跟踪算法,最后给出一个实例说明栅格图形数据叠置分析方法在城镇规划中的应用。     

苏鲁交界及南黄海地区地震波速比的变化特征

本文主要应用多台波速比和单台波速比的方法，计算了苏鲁交界及南黄海（北纬３５°３５′至３６°００′，东经１１７°００′至１２１°００′）范围内，１９８４到１９９１年７月发生在该区域的１６３次ＭＬ≥１．７地震的波速比值，并对波速比结果进行ｔ检验和模糊数学分析识别。分析结果发现，１９８５年１月至１１月出现了不连续的波速比低值异常时段，模糊数学识别的异常从属函数在这段时间也呈现高值。异常恢复后，１９８７年     

模糊数学方法在分析日本东海地区地震前兆中的应用

本文把模糊模式识别的直接方法用于检测日本东海地区地震活动性、体积应变、地下水位、地下水氡含量、地倾斜和潮位中的前兆变化。此方法可消除诸如降雨和气温变化等干扰,使我们能更清晰地识别出地震前兆。此外,还把模糊相似方法和模糊聚类方法应用于识别地震空区及检验地震活动随时间变化的相似性。上述方法在日本其他地区同样有效,即将编入日本气象研究所板内地震预报计划中的计算机系统内。