An evaluation of systems for the integrated assessment of capture fisheries

Integrated fishery assessments are intended to take an integrated and wholistic view of fisheries management, to provide comprehensive systems-based evaluations of the sustainability of individual fisheries and their products. Using guidance derived from decision theory and management science, we develop 18 criteria to evaluate the likely effectiveness of nine integrated fishery assessment systems. The assessment systems do not consistently consider four key criteria: the socio-economic impacts of fisheries, the provision of food security, the local relevance of the assessment to the fishery under assessment, and the independent peer review of assessment outcomes. Other important areas of weakness include the lack of appropriate consultation processes relating to both the design of the assessment system and the outcomes of fishery assessments, and limitations in the quality of data and information used in assessments. Improvements will be needed in these areas across all the systems we evaluated if fishers, consumers, managers and other stakeholders are to be provided with consistently reliable assessment outcomes, and an assurance of the sustainability of capture fisheries.     

浮体间距对多浮体系统水动力系数的影响

根据三维线性势流理论，采用格林函数法，对多浮体系统的水动力系数进行了数值分析。数值算例中给出了在固定波频下水动力系数与浮体间相对位置关系曲线。水动力系数的变化幅度随着浮体间距离增大而变小。随着浮体间距的变化，水动力系数极值的出现具有明显的规律，相邻的极大值(或极小值)的间距为半个波长或一个波长。     

Inverse reconstructions of ecosystem flows in investigating regime shifts: impact of the choice of objective function

Inverse analysis is increasingly used in ecosystem modelling to objectively reconstruct a large number of unknown flows or interactions from a small number of observations. This type of analysis may be useful in relating observed regime shifts in ecosystem structure to underlying processes. Inversions of ecosystem flow networks currently use a constrained least-squares solution which at the same time minimizes the squared norm (the sum of squares) of the reconstructed flows. This minimum norm (MN) inversion is thought to be a parsimonious solution to the ecosystem flow inverse problem, but it may well not reflect how ecosystems are organised. It has been proposed instead that ecosystems evolve to maximize energy/mass flows or that they maximize the information content of the network weighted by ecosystem flows (ascendancy). We used simulated inverse experiments, where inverse analyses are applied to simulations of flow networks, to explore objective functions different than the MN generally used. We could not compute inverse solutions that maximize ascendancy because the objective function is unbounded. We could calculate inversions that maximize flows; however, these generally overestimated the simulated flows, even though the simulations were designed to maximize flows. It appears that the ecosystem flow inverse problem is too under-determined (too few data relative to the number of unknowns) to allow the use of these maximizing goal functions. We introduce a new minimization that simultaneously minimizes the squared flows and the squared differences between flows. This smoothing minimization makes the inverse flows as even as possible and it helps with some technical issues with MN inversions. The simulated inverse experiments indicated that this smoothed norm (SM) is the most robust in comparative analyses of contrasting ecosystem states, such as those that can be associated with regime shifts. Like the MN inversion, the SM inversion has no ecological basis. However, it is a conservative norm that is less likely to produce false differences between the dynamics of regimes.     

基于EMD与神经网络的机械故障诊断技术

经验模式分解 (EMD)是分析非线性、非平稳信号的有力工具 ,它将信号分解为突出了原信号的不同时间尺度的局部特征信息的内在模函数 (IMF)分量。本文通过将各 IMF分量输入到 BP网络中进行训练学习和故障诊断 ,比直接输入原信号可以提高 BP网络对故障诊断的准确率 ,而且减少了训练时间。     

Transfer-function modelling between environmental variation and mesozooplankton in the Baltic Sea

Time series of freshwater runoff, seawater salinity, temperature and oxygen were used in transfer functions (TF) to model changes of mesozooplankton taxa in the Baltic Sea from the 1960’s to the 1990’s. The models were then compared with long term zooplankton monitoring data from the same period. The TF models for all taxa over the whole Baltic proper and at different depth layers showed statistically significant estimates in t-tests. TF models were further compared using parsimony as a criterion. We present models showing 1) r² > 0.4, 2) the smallest residual standard error with the combination of exploratory variables, 3) the lowest number of parameters and 4) the highest proportional decrease in error term when the TF model residual standard error was compared with those of the univariate ARIMA model of the same response variable. Most often (7 taxa out of a total of 8), zooplankton taxa were dependent on freshwater runoff and/or seawater salinity. Cladocerans and estuarine copepods were more conveniently modelled through the inclusion of seawater temperature and oxygen data as independent variables. Our modelling, however, explains neither the overall increase in zooplankton abundance nor a simultaneous decrease found in the neritic copepod, Temora longicornis. Therefore, biotic controlling agents (e.g. nutrients, primary production and planktivore diets) are suggested as independent variables for further TF modelling. TF modelling enabled us to put the controlling factors in a time frame. It was then possible, despite the inherent multiple correlation among parameters studied to deduce a chain-of-events from the environmental controls and biotic feedback mechanisms to changes in zooplankton species. We suggest that the documented long-term changes in zooplankton could have been driven by climatic regulation only. The control by climate could be mediated to zooplankton through marine chemical and physical factors, as well as biotic factors if all of these were responding to the same external control, such as changes in the freshwater runoff. Increased runoff would explain both the increasing eutrophication, causing the overall increase of zooplankton, and the changes in selective predation, contributing to decline of Temora.     

波浪作用下海床动力反应的数值分析

近海和离岸建筑物的基通常处于连续不断的小风浪作用之下，可将其变形视为弹性。基于二维广义Biot理论，提出了线性或非线性波浪作用下饱和弹性海床动力应应的时域有限元数值解法。静力平衡条件和Biot方程组成的边值方程可视为其特例，在比较算例中，数值计算得到的孔压和有效应力幅值沿海床深度的分布与解析解十分吻合。土骨架和孔隙流体的加速度对海床动力反应的影响很小。具体算例表明，线性波沿缓坡海床传播时，土层中超静孔压和有效应力幅值随之增大，有可能发生滑动坡坏。所提出的数值解法能够灵活地处理非线性波浪荷载，海底复杂地质条件和波浪沿缓坡传播等复杂情况。     

On the geologic structure of the Explora Escarpment (Weddell Sea,Antarctica) revealed by satellite and Shipboard data evaluation

Bathymetric, gravity, and magnetic data from Antarctic expeditions with RV POLARSTERN and satellite altimeter data from the Geosat Geodetic Mission are analysed using methods from geostatistics and geophysical inverse theory.The Explora Escarpment represents the edge between the Antarctic Continental Shelf and the Weddell Abyssal Plain. It is an important link in the reconstruction of Gondwana breakup, but a feature as large as the 2000 m deep Wegener Canyon was only discovered in 1984, when extensive bathymetric, gravimetric, and magnetic surveys with RV POLARSTERN began.Geostatistics, the theory of regionalized variables, is applied to integrate dense surveys of Wegener Canyon and sparse observations in adjacent areas into maps with full coverage of the 230 km by 330 km area at 10°–20° W/70°–72° S. The resultant highresolution bathymetric and gravity maps reveal detailed structures of the Explora Escarpment. Using geophysical inversion, the gravity terrain effect is calculated. Satellite data are used for their better coverage, but have much lower resolution. Nevertheless, the structures of Wegener Canyon and other more prominent features appear with surprisingly good correlation also in the Geosat altimeter data. While it was initially supposed that Wegener Canyon is purely an erosional structure, the magnetic map now provides evidence of the canyon's tectonic origin.     

Theory and Practice of Soft Clay Engineering

-The shear strength and deformation properties of soft clay are discussed first. Then some methods for predicting the performance of soft clay foundation are proposed. Finally, case histories are presented to illustrate some discussed aspects of soft clay.     

Shoreline variability via empirical orthogonal function analysis: Part I temporal and spatial characteristics

Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) or principal components were used to extract the significant modes of shoreline variability from several data sets collected at three very different locations. Although EOFs have proven to be a valuable tool in the analysis of nearshore data, most applications have focused on the ability of the technique to describe cross-shore or profile variability. Here however, EOFs were used to help identify the dominant modes of longshore shoreline variability at Duck, North Carolina, the Gold Coast, Australia, and at several locations within the Columbia River Littoral Cell in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. In part one of this analysis, characteristic patterns of shoreline variability identified by the EOF analysis are described in detail. At each site, the dominant modes consisting of the first four eigenfunctions were found to describe nearly 95% of the total shoreline variability. At both Duck and the Gold Coast, several interesting longshore periodic features suggestive of sand waves were identified, while boundary effects related to natural headlands and navigational structures/entrances dominated the Pacific Northwest data sets.