珠江三角洲交通通达性空间格局与人口变化关系

基于1988年、1998年、2008年陆路交通网络数据,借助GIS软件,分析了1980年代以来珠三角地区交通网络通达性空间格局的变化,并采用GAM模型,定量分析了1980～2009年期间陆路交通网络与人口变化之间的关系。结果表明:研究时段内,公路交通通达性空间格局以穗-莞-深一线为最高,向外围逐渐递减;铁路交通通达性空间格局以广佛地区为中心向外围逐渐递减;陆路交通网络发展主要受公路网络的影响,铁路在整个交通网络中所起的作用较弱;各阶段通达性提高幅度差异较大,存在递减效应,第一阶段(1988～1998年)通达性提高较第二阶段(1998～2008年)更为显著;公路交通、铁路交通与人口变化关系具有差异性,公路交通对人口变化的作用显著,三个时段内其对人口变化的解释贡献率分别为11.56%、48.07%、44.92%,铁路与人口变化的关系较为薄弱,但在1990年以后,随着铁路网络扩展以及铁路运输服务水平的提高,其与人口变化的关系逐步增强。     

Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasting Based on Ensemble Output Using Generalized Additive Models and Bayesian Model Averaging

A probabilistic precipitation forecasting model using generalized additive models (GAMs) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) was proposed in this paper.GAMs were used to fit the spatial-temporal precipi...     

基于最大后验和非局域约束的非下采样轮廓波变换域SAR图像去噪方法

本文提出了一种基于最大后验和非局域约束的非下采样轮廓波变换域SAR图像去噪方法。根据SAR图像数据的特征,引入了非对数加性模型,并在该模型下对SAR图像NSCT域中的噪声分布统计建模,应用最大后验（MAP）准则和Non-Local（NL）约束相结合的方法解求SAR图像真实信号的NSCT系数。实验结果表明,本方法具有良好的去噪能力并在性能上优于当前主流方法。     

Continental shelf nurseries and recruitment variability in American plaice and yellowtail flounder on the Grand Bank: insights into stock resiliency

In 1994, a directed fishing moratorium was declared for Grand Bank American plaice (Hippoglossoides platessoides) and yellowtail flounder (Limanda ferruginea) stocks because both stocks showed severe declines in abundance from heavy exploitation during the mid 1980s and early 1990s. Four years later, the fishery for yellowtail re-opened while the plaice stock has shown little recovery and the moratorium is still in effect. To assess the possible causes of the differences in recovery between species, we examined the spatial structure and environmental characteristics of the continental shelf nursery habitats of plaice and yellowtail, and their relationship to recruitment variability and overall population size. Depth plays a major influential role determining the spatial pattern and the abundance of juveniles of both species and in the case of plaice the spatial structure of the adult population also determines the amount of nursery area utilised by juveniles. Recruitment variability was higher in plaice than in yellowtail. We found year class synchrony in both species indicating that common environmental conditions and/or biological processes are affecting recruitment in a similar manner. Density-dependent regulation appears to be more severe in yellowtail and this should contribute to a more stable population when compared to plaice. These results are discussed in terms of resiliency of both stocks to over-exploitation.     

1979年—2014年三峡库区月平均气温的时空变化分析

三峡区域气温变化长期以来受到科研人员和公众的关注。受三峡复杂地形的影响,仅仅基于气象站点观测数据很难准确获取区域气温变化的空间格局,遥感技术则可以通过提供空间连续的地表观测数据来辅助气温变化分析。以广义加性模型GAM (General Additive Model)为插值算法,以高程和夜间地表温度(LST_night)遥感产品为辅助变量,估算三峡库区1979年—2014年1 km空间分辨率的月气温数据,在此基础上分析了气温变化趋势的时空特征及其与高程和森林覆盖率的关系。研究表明,(1)在插值算法中引入遥感产品LST_night作为辅助变量可以明显改善气温估算精度,冬春季的改善幅度高于夏秋季;(2)三峡库区年平均气温在1997年后明显上升,但在2003年库区蓄水后无明显变化趋势,几乎所有月(除12月以外)的气温都呈现上升趋势,增温趋势最显著是3月和9月,3月增温主要来自于库区东部山区的贡献,而9月增温主要来自于库区西部平原的贡献;(3)多数月份(除7月、8月、9月以外)的低温上升速度超过高温上升速度,导致区域气温的动态变化范围缩小;(4)三峡库区年平均气温上升速度与高程呈正相关,即海拔越高,升温越快,但在同一海拔高度处,森林覆盖率越高,年均气温上升速度越慢,暗示森林具有抑制增温的作用。     

Applications of generalized additive model (GAM) to satellite-derived variables and fishery data for prediction of fishery resources distributions in the Arabian Sea

This study aims to illustrate how remotely sensed oceanic variables and fishing operations data can be used to predict suitable habitat of fishery resources in Geographic Information System. We used sea surface height anomaly (SSHa), sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll concentration (CC), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and fishing depth as predictor variables. Fishery data of Indian squid (Loligo spp.) and catfish (Tachysurus spp.) for study period (1998–2004) were segregated randomly to create training and validation. Catch was normalized into Catch per unit Effort (kg h^?1). Generalized additive modelling was performed on training data and then tested on validation data. Suitable ranges of SST, CC, SSHa and PAR for different species distributions were derived and integrated to predict their spatial distributions. Results indicated good match between predicted and actual catch. Monthly probability maps of predicted habitat areas coincide with high catch of the particular month for the study period.     

论中国半精养水库渔业及其饲料问题

中国水库放养鱼的种类、食性以及可利用的天然饵料生物决定了半精养渔业是水库渔业的主要模式。水库半精养有中、小型水库、水库库汊、网拦、网围、网箱养鱼等多种形式。其产量与肥料、饲料的投入有直接关系。最大限度地利用天然饵料,并辅以补充性人工饲料,可实现高产高效。本文以水库鱼类的营养和饲料利用为基础,论述半精养水库渔业的理论和实用技术,并提出尚须研究的问题,以推进半精养水库渔业的发展。     

Water temperature modelling: comparison between the generalized additive model,logistic, residuals regression and linear regression models

Water temperature has a significant influence on aquatic organisms, including stenotherm fish such as salmonids. It is thus of prime importance to build reliable tools to forecast water temperature. This study evaluated a statistical scheme to model average water temperature based on daily average air temperature and average discharge at the Sainte-Marguerite River, Northern Canada. The aim was to test a non-parametric water temperature generalized additive model (GAM) and to compare its performance to three previously developed approaches: the logistic, residuals regression and linear regression models. Due to its flexibility, the GAM was able to capture some of the nonlinear response between water temperature and the two explanatory variables (air temperature and flow). The shape of these effects was determined by the trends shown in the collected data. The four models were evaluated annually using a cross-validation technique. Three comparison criteria were calculated: the root mean square error (RMSE), the bias error and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSC). The goodness of fit of the four models was also compared graphically. The GAM was the best among the four models (RMSE = 1.44°C, bias = ?0.04 and NSC = 0.94).     

禁渔初期鄱阳湖流域柘林水库鱼类资源时空分布格局及影响因子

为了解长江十年禁渔初期鄱阳湖流域柘林水库鱼类资源时空分布格局及其影响因子,于2020年9月(秋季)、12月(冬季)和2021年4月(春季)、7月(夏季),采用渔获物抽样和水声学探测相结合的方法对柘林水库鱼类群落和资源密度的时空动态进行调查,并利用广义可加模型(generalized additive model, GAM)识别了影响鱼类资源变化的关键因子。调查期间共采集鱼类5目12科36属54种,鲤形目鱼类占比最高为70.38%,鳙(Hypophthalmichthys nobilis)、(Hemiculter leucisculus)和黄尾鲴(Xenocypris davidi)为优势种。水声学探测结果表明,鱼类密度(ind./1000 m³)具有明显的时空异质性,春、夏季(10.42±17.57和16.34±11.89)显著高于秋、冬季(2.74±3.33和2.02±5.07),中游(3.18±4.76)则显著低于上、下游(11.20±15.66和5.37±9.33)。GAM模型对鱼类密度的总偏差解释率为84.6%,其中经纬度、季节、叶绿素a浓度和溶解氧对鱼类密度的影响效应显著,水深和总氮的影响不显著。鱼类主要分布在29.12°~29.30°N,115.05°~115.15°E区域,显著影响鱼类分布的溶解氧和叶绿素a浓度范围分别为9~12 mg/L和5~15 μg/L。柘林水库鱼类呈现小型化趋势,为维护生态系统稳定性和鱼类多样性,后续需加强对鱼类群落结构和时空分布格局影响的机制方面的相关研究。     

1998-2012年青藏高原TRMM 3B43降水数据的校准

运用1998-2012年青藏高原的TRMM 3B43降水数据以及气象台站实测降水数据,对比分析了青藏高原地区TRMM 3B43降水数据偏差分布规律。结果表明:(1) TRMM 3B43降水数据在青藏高原地区存在明显误差,特别是降水量大的地区和月份,偏差量较大。(2)青藏高原地区TRMM 3B43降水数据偏差分布与海拔、经纬度、降水量存在密切的关系。用偏差分布规律,加法修正法结合随机森林算法对青藏高原地区TRMM 3B43降水数据进行了校准。经过校准之后,数据精度得到显著提高,有效增加了数据的可用性,多年月平均数据决定系数R²最大可达到0.9(3、10月),最小也接近于0.5(12月),效率系数E均为正值,最大可达到90(3、10月);多年季平均和多年平均降水数据中除了第一季度结果稍差外(决定系数R²为0.58),其余数据校准效果均较好。