Larval fish abundance and physical forcing in the Gulf of Alaska, 1981–2003

The present study investigates ecological patterns and relationships to environmental variables among a time-series of larval fish species abundance from late spring surveys (1981–2003) in the northwest Gulf of Alaska (GOA). Links between interannual variation in species abundance and the physical environment were explored using generalized additive modeling (GAM). Trends in larval abundance and connections with physical variables displayed patterns that indicate unique and complex responses among species to environmental forcing during the larval period. In particular, the observed patterns suggest that ontogenetic-specific responses, representing sub-intervals of early life, are important. In addition, a notable degree of synchrony in larval abundance trends, and similarity in links with physical variables, were observed among species with common early life history patterns. The deepwater spawners, northern lampfish, arrowtooth flounder, and Pacific halibut, were most abundant in the study area during the 1990s, in association with enhanced wind-driven onshore and alongshore transport. Years of high abundance for Pacific cod, walleye pollock, and northern rock sole were associated with cooler winters and enhanced alongshore winds during spring. High larval abundance for spring–summer spawning rockfish species and southern rock sole seemed to be favored by warmer spring temperatures later in the time-series. This apparent exposure–response coupling seems to be connected to both local-scale and basin-scale environmental signals, to varying degrees depending on specific early life history characteristics. Understanding such ecological connections contributes to the evaluation of vulnerability and resilience among GOA species’ early life history patterns to fluctuating climate and oceanographic conditions. This investigation also provides crucial information for the identification of “environmental indicators” that may have a broad-spectrum effect on multiple species early life history stages, as well as those that may be more species-specific in exerting control on early life history survival. Of particular interest was the emergence of the EP–NP (East Pacific–North Pacific) teleconnection index as the top-ranked variable in the GAM models exploring the connections between late spring larval abundance and the physical environment. The EP–NP index represents an important and often primary mode of spring–summer atmospheric variability in the northeast Pacific, with a strong expression in the GOA, and its connection with species in this study implies that it may be a climate mode of significant ecological importance.     

Analysis of ship life cycles—The impact of economic cycles and ship inspections

Due to the shipping industry's international legal framework, there are loopholes in the system, which can increase the risk of incidents with high economic costs due to the substandard operation of vessels. This article uses duration analysis and through the creation of ship life cycles provides insight into the effectiveness of inspections on prolonging ship lives. The analysis accounts for fluctuations in the relevant economic environment and the (possibly time-varying) ship particulars. It is based on a unique dataset containing information on the timing of accidents, inspections and ship particular changes of more than 50,000 vessels over a 29-year time period (1978–2007). The results reveal that the shipping industry is a relatively safe industry but there is a possible over-inspection of vessels. The effect of inspections varies across ship types and the prevention of incidents with high economic costs can be improved by a coordinated approach of all types of inspections that are performed which allows the decrease of unnecessary inspections. Further, more emphasis should be placed on the rectification and follow-up of deficiencies and the implementation of the ISM code. Another added benefit for the industry would be to improve transparency related to class withdrawals and class transfers for all classification societies. Another interesting finding is that for the majority of ship types, an increase in earnings decreases the incident rate. This is in contrast to the industry perception of the impact of earnings.     

A Global Refiability Assessment Method on Aging Offshore Platforms with Corrosion and Cracks

Corrosion and fatigue cracks are major threats to the structural integrity of aging offshore platforms.For the rational estimation of the safety levels of aging platforms,a global reliability assessment approach for aging offshore platforms with corrosion and fatigue cracks is presented in this paper.The base shear capacity is taken as the global ultimate strength of the offshore plaffoms,it is modeled as a random process that decreases with time in the presence of corrosion and fatigue crack propagation.And the corrosion and fatigue crack growth rates in the main members and key joints are modeled as random variables.A simulation method of the extreme wave loads which are applied to the structures of offshore platforms is proposed too.Furthermore,the statistics of global base shear capacity and extreme wave loads are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation method.On the basis of the limit state equation of global failure mode,the instantaneous reliability and time dependent reliability assessment methods are both presented in this paper.Finally the instantaueous reliability index and time dependent failure probability of a jacket platform are estimated with different ages in the demonstration example.     

渤海水交换的数值研究-水质模型对半交换时间的模拟

介绍了几种关于水交换的概念和模型。认为以水质模型模拟半交换时间研究海域的水交换能力更全面、客观。对渤海水交换的研究表明 ,由于渤海环流结构及季节变化 ,使得渤海 3个海湾及渤海中部交换能力相差很大 ,莱州湾交换能力最强 ,辽东湾特别是其西部海域交换能力最弱。交换时间与物质初始浓度无关 ,与投放时刻、外源强迫密切相关。在治理渤海环境时 ,应分区进行 ,注意选择污染物排放时间和位置     

深水半潜式平台结构关键节点疲劳破坏机理试验研究

深水半潜式平台结构在深海环境荷载及作业动荷载的作用下容易产生疲劳损伤累积,加速疲劳裂纹扩展,导致结构发生疲劳破坏。对深水半潜式平台横撑部位的两类关键节点进行了疲劳试验研究,分析了关键节点的疲劳破坏现象、疲劳破坏过程以及疲劳裂纹扩展规律。试验结果表明:应用规范给出的裂纹扩展模型和参数估算关键节点的疲劳寿命低于试验所得的疲劳寿命,说明应用规范给出的裂纹扩展模型和参数估算节点的疲劳寿命比较安全;根据疲劳试验结果建立的关键节点的S-N曲线参数与DNV规范给出的较为吻合;关键节点焊趾处的ε-N关系曲线可以反映出关键节点疲劳破坏的三个阶段破坏规律。研究结果为有效地预测平台结构关键节点的疲劳损伤程度,及时进行维修加固延长结构的使用寿命提供参考。     

Mesoscale eddies off Peru in altimeter records: Identification algorithms and eddy spatio-temporal patterns

Relatively little is known about coherent vortices in the eastern South-Pacific along the Peruvian coast, even with regard to basic facts about their frequency of occurrence, longevity and structure. This study addresses these issues with nearly 15 years of relatively high-resolution satellite altimetry measurements.We first compare two distinct automated methods for eddy identification. The objective validation protocol shows that the rarely-used geometrical or “winding-angle method”, based on the curvature of the streamline functions, is more accurate than the commonly-used “Okubo–Weiss algorithm”, which defines a vortex as a simple connected region with values of Okubo–Weiss parameter weaker than a given threshold.We then investigate vortices off Peru using more than 20,000 mesoscale eddies identified by the winding-angle method. Coherent eddies, characterized by a high ratio of vorticity to deformation rate, are typically formed along the coast and propagate westward at 3–6 cm s⁻¹. The vortices have a mean radius of 80 km, increasing northward, and are most frequently observed off of Chimbote (9°S) and south of San Juan (15°S). The mean eddy lifetime is about 1 month, but if eddies survive at least 2 months, the probability for surviving an additional week (or month) is constant at 90% (or 67%). Anticyclonic eddies tend to propagate northwestward whereas cyclonic vortices migrate southwestward. In general, cyclones and anticyclones are similar, except for eddies surviving at least 6 months. In this case, after a similar 3–4 months of radius and amplitude growth, amplitudes (or sizes) decay particularly rapidly for anticyclonic (or cyclonic) eddies. In terms of intensity, cyclonic eddies show a rapid decay during the first 3 months before arriving at a quasi-constant value, whereas anticyclones exhibit steady decline. Finally, eddy temporal variations were examined at seasonal and interannual scales in the “coastal” region favorable to the formation of energetic mesoscale structures. On seasonal scales, eddy activity is maximal in fall and minimum in spring. At interannual scales, the eddy activity index was maximal during the strong El Niño of 1997–1998 but another strong maximum of eddy activity also occurred late in 2004. These temporal variations are probably associated with the intensification of the upwelling thermal front and with the passage of coastal-trapped waves which generate baroclinic instabilities. Further investigation of the mechanisms involved on the eddy genesis is needed.     

凡纳滨对虾(Litopenaeus vannamei)即食虾仁在常温保藏中的货架期预测及品质分析

采用化学分析、质构检测及动力学模型建立等方法, 对凡纳滨对虾(Litopenaeus vannamei)即食虾仁在常温保藏中的细菌总数、TVB-N值、pH值、质构特性、色差值及感官评价等参数进行测定。以挥发性盐基氮TVB-N作为货架寿命的关键指示因子, 利用Arrhenius法预测常温流通高水分即食调味虾仁的货架寿命。计算结果Ea为65.26kJ/mol, k0为6.04×109, 进一步推算得到在20℃和25℃常温流通条件下, 即食虾仁产品的货架期为148.61d和94.1d。在25℃保藏3个月的虾仁虽在细菌总数、TVB-N值、pH值、感官评分、质构、色差值等方面均发生了一些变化, 但都在安全范围之内, 不影响其食用价值。本研究为常温流通的即食虾仁产品开发奠定了理论基础。     

低温贮藏罗非鱼微生物学质量变化特性和保藏期

进行了罗非鱼在0,5,10,15℃贮藏过程中的微生物学质量变化特性和高品质期、货架期的研究,并对其特定腐败菌假单胞菌、细菌总数、VBN与感官评价的一致程度进行了探讨。结果表明,罗非鱼在0～15℃温度区域是淡水鱼中鲜度下降慢的鱼种,在0,5,10,15℃贮藏中,罗非鱼的高品质期分别为11,6,3和1.5d,货架期分别为20,9.5,5和2.5d。高品质期和货架期终点的假单胞菌数平均为(6.27±0.23)Log10cfu·g-1和(7.70±0.11)Log10cfu·g-1,显示了假单胞菌计数与罗非鱼的感官鲜度及保藏期具有较可靠的一致性。高品质期和货架期终点的细菌总数平均为(6.84±0.60)Log10cfu·g-1和(8.08±0.41)Log10cfu·g-1,VBN值平均为(11.8±1.38)mg·100-1·g-1和(20.1±1.66)mg·100-1·g-1,均无显著差异(P>0.05),表明细菌总数和VBN作为罗非鱼低温贮藏的鲜度指标与感官鲜度评价有较好的一致性。     

兼济 谋食 归隐——试论陶渊明的人生之路

陶渊明有儒家"兼济"与"独善"的思想,但其中更多的是渗透着道家的"避世"和"全生"思想,其人生道路是从"兼济"到"谋食"再到"归隐"。既然在乱世中"兼济"无成,只能求生,包括避祸与谋食。避祸是既避"人间刑戮",也避"天刑"。而当谋食与人格发生冲突时,只能是归隐。陶渊明在归隐中借助诗与酒"顺物"游心",从另一意义上成就了自己。