A Global Reliability Assessment Method on Aging Offshore Platforms with Corrosion and Cracks

Corrosion and fatigue cracks are major threats to the structural integrity of aging offshore platforms. For the rational estimation of the safety levels of aging platforms, a global reliability assessment approach for aging offshore platforms with corrosion and fatigue cracks is presented in this paper. The base shear capacity is taken as the global ultimate strength of the offshore platforms. It is modeled as a random process that decreases with time in the presence of corrosion and fatigue crack propagati...     

船体可靠性评估

为了研究不同结构船体的寿命和使用时可靠度的关系,提出了一种基于试验的可靠度估计方法.针对不同结构船体寿命服从Weibull分布,在无失效数据情形下、置信度至少为γ和寿命为t时,根据船体寿命试验数据,给出了可靠度的单侧置信下限.该方法是在Weibull分布形状参数下限已知的情况下,能将所有的无失效寿命数据进行累加,大大提高了可靠性分析的精度.最后,对钢结构、钛合金结构、铝合金结构的船体,在寿命为t月、置信度至少为γ时,计算了3种结构船体的可靠度单侧置信下限.结果表明该方法易于计算,便于工程应用.     

基于循环孔洞扩张模型的X型圆管节点超低周疲劳寿命预测

海洋工程钢结构在服役过程中,受风、浪、流或地震等极端循环载荷的影响,易发生超低周疲劳断裂破坏,造成人员伤亡及财产损失,因此超低周疲劳断裂分析及寿命预测对于海工结构安全性评估至关重要。然而,现阶段基于累积损伤理论提出的多种超低周疲劳寿命预测模型无法对多尺度节点实现统一预测,造成了实际工程应用的不便。因此文中基于循环孔洞扩张模型开展X型圆管节点超低周疲劳寿命预测。首先,开发了基于循环孔洞扩张模型的VUSDFLD程序,实现ABAQUS与FORTRAN子程序联合应用,利用有限元分析验证循环孔洞扩张模型在X型圆管节点超低周疲劳断裂分析中的有效性;其次,根据多组X型圆管节点超低周疲劳断裂有限元分析结果,在宏观层面提出了一种基于Manson-Coffin公式的超低周疲劳寿命预测公式;最后,依据Miner理论,将适用于等幅加载的超低周疲劳寿命公式扩展至变幅加载情况,验证了多种节点尺寸下超低周疲劳公式的适用性,为工程应用提供了理论依据。     

Multiple Residence and Cyclical Migration: A Life Course Perspective*

As a result of restrictive time-space bounds in viewing migration, surprisingly little is known about the tempos and rhythms of geographical mobility in America. We discuss limitations of the conventional definition of migration and develop a life course framework of multiple residence and cyclical migration. Results of an Arizona-based case study reveal that multiple residence is common and more diverse than the annual influx of elderly snowbirds. Coming to grips with multiple residence and recurrent mobility in the United States represents a fundamental challenge in population and migration studies.     

Time-dependent behaviour of the rock mass

Summary The strength of intact rock and the rock mass is time-dependent. For intact rock experimental verification is available, for the rock mass the scale of time-dependence is a matter of judgement. Rock mass classifications do however emphasize the effect of time on tunnel stability. This paper examines the source of time-dependence in rocks and the rock mass and suggests a technique for estimating the long term strength. The long term strength of the rock mass is controlled by the time-dependent weakening of intact rock. Frictional resistance, a major source of rock mass strength, increases rather than decreases with time. Lifetime estimation for rocks can be accomplished phenomenologically or mechanistically. The first is a statistical process of wide applicability, the second is more restrictive in usage as its applies only to materials that suffer time-dependent strain (creep). Although the mechanistic route is more appealing, it has a major drawback as it concentrates on steady state creep. There is no strong evidence for steady state creep in rocks. The technique for long term prediction is developed through the analysis of the failure rate under constant load. The failure rate for a given load and environment is established from the frequency distribution of time-to-failure data as measured in static fatigue tests. As expected, the failure rate is strongly affected by both the loading and the environmental condition. The influence, however, is systematic and predictable.     

循环荷载特征对焊接工字形钢支撑低周疲劳性能的影响

通过14根铰支焊接工字形支撑在不同特征的循环轴向位移荷载下的低周疲劳试验，研究了循环轴向位移荷载的位移幅值、平均位移幅值及加载次序等因素对钢支撑低周疲劳及耗能性能的影响。研究发现，对称循环荷载中幅值越小，支撑翼缘局部屈曲发展越晚，其耗能及承载力退化也越平缓。文中提出了支撑在幅值6δ≤Δδ≤12δy的对称循环荷载下的疲劳寿命经验公式。试验表明，循环荷载的位移幅值是支撑疲劳损伤及耗能退化的最主要影响因素，过载峰效应及适当的平均压位移幅值改善了钢支撑低周疲劳及耗能性能。     

Energy demands for seismic design against low‐cycle fatigue

A seismic design procedure that does not take into account the maximum and cumulative plastic deformation demands that a structure is likely to undergo during severe ground motion could lead to unsatisfactory performance. In spite of this, current design procedures do not take into account explicitly the effect of low‐cycle fatigue. Based on the high correlation that exists between the strength reduction factor and the energy demand in earthquake‐resistant structures, simple procedures can be formulated to estimate the cumulative plastic deformation demands for design purposes. Several issues should be addressed during the use of plastic energy within a practical performance‐based seismic design methodology. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

模糊数学在混凝土构件耐久性评定中的应用初探

根据钢筋混凝土构件耐久性评估的特点，借助模糊数学的理论，将结构构件的损伤程度作为构件这一论域U上的模糊子集A，利用所构造的多元隶属函数，对构件的损伤程度进行评价，提出了一种耐久性分极评定方法，这一方法克服了以往在结构构件评价中存在的主观、经验等因素，该法的特点是使耐久性的每一级别都有确切的剩余寿命的内涵，而多元隶属函数法的引入减小了主观因素对评定结果的影响。经实例验算，该法准确率可达90%。     

陈传康的学术生命路径和学术树

通过扩展传统的生命路径 ( life path)概念、并建立学术树 ( discipline tree)概念 ,研究已故当代中国著名地理学家、旅游学家陈传康教授的学术史。在统计了陈传康教授全部 1 2 1 2种次的学术著述的基础上 ,首先在时间纬度上建立了学术生命路径曲线、系统式和时序式生命路径表 ,用以统计分析陈传康教授的学术论著种次的分布情况和变迁过程 ,一方面反映出著作量随中国当代历史的脉动而出现的起伏变化 ,另一方面通过观察时间轴上这些著述的学科点的分布变化 ,不仅体现 2 0世纪 5 0年代～ 90年代陈传康学术偏好的转徙 ,也反映出 5 0年间中国地理学整体的变化轨迹。利用学术树的概念 ,统计分析陈传康一生构筑的个人学术体系 ,最终勾勒出其一生经营的学术群落的整体景观。     

旅游目的地形象的形成过程与生命周期初探

论述旅游目的地形象形成的 8个阶段 ,并结合南京郊区旅游地的实际情况 ,对目的地形象的推广思路进行分析。从旅游者心理特征出发 ,提出了目的地形象的生命周期问题 ,通过对南京郊区旅游地形象现状的评估 ,认为钟山风景区形象趋于老化 ,面临形象的重新定位。