A Study of the Extratropical Transformation of Typhoon Winnie （1997）

The complicated evolutive process of how a tropical cyclone transforms into an extratropical cyclone is still an unresolved issue to date, especially one which arises in a weakly baroclinic environment. Typhoon Winnie （1997） is studied during its extratropical transformation stage of extratropical transition （ET） with observational data and numerical simulations. Results show that Winnie experienced its extratropical transformation to the south of the subtropical high without intrusion of the mid-latitude baroclinic zone. This is significantly different from previous studies. Analyses reveal that the cold air, which appeared in the north edge of Winnie circulation, resulted from the precipitation drag and cooling effect of latent heat absorption associated with the intense precipitation there. The cooling only happened below 3 km and the greatest cooling was below 1 km. With the cold air and its advection by the circulation of Winnie, a front was formed in the lower troposphere. The front above is related not only to the cooling in the lower level but also to the warming effect of latent heat release in the middle-upper levels. The different temperature variation in the vertical caused the temperature gradient over Winnie and resulted in the baroclinicity.     

THE AMERICAN CHALLENGE TO BRITISH HEGEMONY, 1861–1947*

ABSTRACT. In The Shaping of America Donald Meinig describes a United States averse to challenging Britain geostrategically but emerging as a powerhouse economy by the late 1890s. But America embarked on a sustained economic struggle with Britain in 1861 by embracing protectionism; America's Civil War ironclads were as much to resist Britain as fight the Confederacy; and in 1866 uss Miantonomoh helped persuade Britain to reconsider, then pay, the Alabama Claims. Britain never retaliated in the economic struggle by moving to protectionism and in the late 1800s began to appease America in geostrategic terms. This struggle intensified in the 1920s and 1930s as America and Britain competed for control of international transportation, international communication, and the global oil supply, but by the mid‐1940s American hegemony was clear. This article traces the course of the complex economic and political struggle for hegemony in the light of recent models of transitions in the world economy.     

中国城市产业增长研究: 基于动态外部性与经济转型视角

新经济增长理论强调动态外部性对经济增长的积极作用。本研究认为动态外部性对中国城市产业增长的影响依赖于中国经济转型。利用2000年和2005年地级市及其以上城市的两位数制造业数据进行实证研究,发现动态外部性和我国城市产业增长存在非线性关系。产业专业化和本地竞争一定程度上可以促进产业增长,但是当专业化和竞争超过一定水平之后将不利于产业增长;相反,多元化程度只有达到较高水平之后才会显著促进产业增长。本研究还发现动态外部性对于市场化程度较高、参与全球化程度高、地方保护较强的产业以及位于经济自主权较大的城市的产业影响尤为显著。本文清晰地表明我国经济转轨为动态外部性的发生创造了条件。     

地震断层带流体作用的岩石化学-物理响应——来自矿物学、岩石化学、岩石物理学的启示

地震断层带是壳内深部流体的通道。流体与地震破裂带内的岩石相互作用导致其具有与地壳完整岩石完全不同的特性,包括其矿物成分、化学成分、粒度分布、孔隙度、渗透性和弹性等方面,这些特征可以视为流体与地震断层带相互作用的响应。深入研究断层岩的岩石化学和岩石物理性质将有助于准确和精细地了解地震断层岩的形成过程,分析地震能量分配,认识物质迁移的方式,解释或约束地震断层带深部探测结果等。文中以汶川地震破裂带内的断层岩为例,研究并总结了地震断层岩的渗透率、孔隙度、纵波速度、粒度分布和矿物组成等特征。结果显示,地震破裂带上的断层岩形成与地震破裂作用有关,但表现出的性质更大程度上烙有间震期流体与断层岩相互作用的印记。汶川地震破裂带上的断层岩本身并不是汶川地震破裂的直接产物,而是多次地震破裂和间震期流体与断层带相互作用的综合结果。此外,还探讨了地震破裂能、地震破裂扩展、围陷波形成及解释的问题。     

龙门山断层脆-塑性转化带流变结构与汶川地震孕震机制

汶川地震发震断层为高角度逆断层,这种断层滑动和发生强震需要断层深部具备特殊的力学条件。发震断层地区地表出露若干韧性剪切带,其中不同类型石英变形具有不同的变形温度。细粒糜棱岩中的石英表现为高温位错蠕变,变形温度为500~700℃;含残斑初糜棱岩中的石英表现为中温位错蠕变,其变形温度为400~500℃;早期石英脉中的石英表现为低温位错蠕变,变形温度为280~400℃;晚期石英脉以碎裂变形为主,其变形温度为150~250℃。石英的这些变形特征显示出断层带经历了多期脆-塑性转化。根据糜棱岩中的重结晶石英的粒度估计的断层塑性流动应力为15~80MPa。石英和长石内的微量水以晶体缺陷水、颗粒边界水和流体包裹体水的形式存在,水含量随岩石的应变增加而升高,变化范围为0.01~0.15wt%。断层脆-塑性转化带内石英含有大量与裂隙愈合相关的次生流体包裹体,其捕获温度为330~350℃,流体压力为70~405MPa,估计的流体压力系数为0.16~0.9,代表强震发生后,断层带内产生的大量微裂隙逐渐愈合过程中的流体特征。在考虑断层带流体压力和应变速率变化条件下,利用石英流变参数建立了从间震期到地震成核阶段断层脆-塑性转化带流变结构和震后快速蠕滑阶段断层脆-塑性转化带流变结构。结果表明,在间震期、地震成核阶段、震后快速滑动阶段,断层强度和脆-塑性转化深度随应变速率和流体压力变化而变化,且脆-塑性转化特征与石英的变形机制、断层速度弱化和强化转化深度、汶川地震震源深度等吻合,显示映秀-北川断层具备摩擦滑动速度弱化和地震成核的基础,而断层带内存在高压流体可能是触发高角度逆断层滑动和汶川地震发生的主要机制。     

一次温带气旋的同化试验

温带气旋在浙江海域入海发展形成的瞬时大风和大浪常常会造成船只倾覆、人员伤亡等灾情。本文采用WRF中尺度数值模式对一次入海温带气旋过程进行3个试验分析,包括试验一(不同化任何资料)、试验二(将未经质量控制的云迹风资料全部放入模式同化)和试验三(将经质量控制以后的云迹风资料放入模式同化)。通过对高度场和风场等的模拟,并与实况对比,表明将经质量控制的云迹风资料放入模式可以较大程度改进温带气旋的模拟结果,为提高影响浙江海域的温带气旋预报的准确率提供一定参考。     

耕地转型的研究路径探讨

当前,土地利用转型研究总体上处于“描述-解释”阶段,高度集中在森林转型研究领域及空间形态研究路径。学术界亟须推动土地利用转型研究向科学调控阶段发展。对此,本文尝试提出耕地转型的研究路径,以期带动土地利用转型研究领域向半人工半自然复合土地系统乃至人工土地系统拓展、研究路径向非空间形态延伸。耕地转型诊断可以从空间形态转型与功能形态转型两条路径开展。其中,前一路径关注耕地的空间分布及其收缩与扩张,可以从耕地数量变化或格局变化视角开展研究;后一路径关注耕地功能的变化过程,可以从外部性或政策演进视角开展研究。由社会-生态负反馈驱动的耕地功能形态转型,主导着由社会-经济动态驱动的耕地空间形态转型进程。据此,作者构建了耕地转型调控框架及其层次分析体系。     

DIAGNOSIS OF THE DEVELOPMENTAL MECHANISM OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE USING POTENTIAL VORTICITY INVERSION OF FRONTOGENESIS

This paper diagnoses and analyses the developmental mechanism of a process of extratropical transition of a tropical cyclone which occurred over West Pacific Ocean based on a diagnosis method of potential vorticity inversion of frontogenesis.The study diagnoses quantitatively the role and effect of dynamic influence of westerly cold troughs,middle-latitude baroclinic frontal zones,cyclone cycles and unbalanced wind fields during the different stages of the extratropical transition of a tropical cyclone,and also discusses the interaction between them and the developmental mechanism.The results show that there are different developmental mechanisms during each stage of the extratropical transition and the processes are also unbalanced.     

Effects of Fe and Al incorporations on the bridgmanite–postperovskite coexistence domain

The postperovskite phase transition of Fe and Al-bearing MgSiO₃ bridgmanite, the most aboundant mineral in the Earth's lower mantle, is believed to be a key to understanding seismological observations in the D″ layer, e.g., the discontinuous changes in seismic wave velocities. Experimentally reported phase transition boundaries of Fe and Al-bearing bridgmanite are currently largely controversial and generally suggest wide two-phase coexistence domains. Theoretical simulations ignoring temperature effects cannot evaluate correctly two-phase coexistence domains under high-temperature. We show high-pressure and high-temperature phase transition boundaries for various compositions with geophysically relevant impurities of Fe²⁺SiO₃, Fe³⁺Fe³⁺O₃, Fe³⁺Al³⁺O₃, and Al³⁺Al³⁺O₃ derived from the ab initio finite-temperature free energies calculated combining the internally consistent LSDA + U method and a lattice dynamics approach. We found that at ～ 2500 K, incorporations accompanied by Fe³⁺ expand the two-phase coexistence domains distinctly, implying that D″ seismic discontinuities likely arise from the phase transition of Fe²⁺-bearing bridgmanite.