基于模糊分类的UBGM(1,1)-Markov模型在露天矿边坡沉降预测中的应用

针对UBGM(1,1)-Markov模型中存在2个邻近值可能被归属到不同状态,导致预测值产生偏差的问题,结合模糊分类理论,构建基于模糊分类的无偏灰色-马尔科夫模型(unbiased gray-Markov model based on fuzzy classification, FC-UBGM(1,1)-Markov)。首先对UBGM(1,1)模型进行残差修正,然后将修正后拟合值的相对残差序列作为Markov链进行区间划分,再结合模糊分类的隶属度函数,计算相对残差的模糊向量,根据隶属度确定其所属的状态。实际算例表明,该模型比传统UBGM(1,1)-Markov模型的预测效果更好。     

30年来东南红壤丘陵区土壤侵蚀度时空演变研究——以长汀县为例

土壤侵蚀动态监测是侵蚀研究体系中的重要内容,当前国内大部分研究直接引用国外监测模型,不仅在因子选取以及模型通用性上存在不足,而且对区域土壤的潜在性侵蚀危险考虑不够。因此,研究提出土壤侵蚀度的概念,作为区域土壤实际侵蚀强度与潜在侵蚀危险的综合表征,并基于人地关系系统,通过多指标的量化与建模进行土壤侵蚀度测算,从而分析福建省长汀县土壤侵蚀时空演变规律。结果表明,长汀县土壤侵蚀分布存在集中连片的特点,汀中地区的侵蚀度最高,并向周边逐渐衰减。同时,侵蚀度在变化方向上虽然存在不确定性,但总体侵蚀状况近30a来得到了明显的改善,安全区的比重从1975年的3.87%增长至2006年的56.38%,相比而言,极度侵蚀危险区的比重仅从1975年的12.3%,减少至2006年的6.66%,改善幅度较其他等级土壤有所差距,这与区域在立地条件、经济发展水平以及政策导向上的差异密切相关。研究结果说明选取侵蚀影响因子具有一定的适宜性,也证明土壤侵蚀度可以有效表征土壤侵蚀时空演变趋势。     

我国东部沿海省区城镇化水平影响因素的空间差异

本文利用2000年截面数据,用因子分析法考察了我国东部沿海省区人口城镇化影响因素的差异、特征和类型。分析结果表明,沿海省区的城镇化水平受到多种因素不同程度的影响,各省区城镇化水平的影响因素及其影响作用呈现出明显的差异化特征,既有明显受到转型期要素流动影响的省份如广东省;也有综合经济实力提高推动城镇化的区域如沪苏和浙江省;还有表现为典型的工业化带动城镇化的传统模式的省份如山东省等。省区间差异化的城镇化影响因素表明,我国沿海省区的城镇化具有明显的个性化特征。     

Elevation‐dependent responses of streamflow to climate warming

Warming will affect snowline elevation, potentially altering the timing and magnitude of streamflow from mountain landscapes. Presently, the assessment of potential elevation‐dependent responses is difficult because many gauged watersheds integrate drainage areas that are both snow and rain dominated. To predict the impact of snowline rise on streamflow, we mapped the current snowline (1980 m) for the Salmon River watershed (Idaho, USA) and projected its elevation after 3 °C warming (2440 m). This increase results in a 40% reduction in snow‐covered area during winter months. We expand this analysis by collecting streamflow records from a new, elevation‐stratified gauging network of watersheds contained within high (2250–3800 m), mid (1500–2250 m) and low (300–1500 m) elevations that isolate snow, mixed and rain‐dominated precipitation regimes. Results indicate that lags between percentiles of precipitation and streamflow are much shorter in low elevations than in mid‐ and high‐elevation watersheds. Low elevation annual percentiles (Q₂₅ and Q₇₅) of streamflow occur 30–50 days earlier than in higher elevation watersheds. Extreme events in low elevations are dominated by low‐ and no‐flow events whereas mid‐ and high‐elevation extreme events are primarily large magnitude floods. Only mid‐ and high‐elevation watersheds are strongly cross correlated with catchment‐wide flow of the Salmon River, suggesting that changes in contributions from low‐elevation catchments may be poorly represented using mainstem gauges. As snowline rises, mid‐elevation watersheds will likely exhibit behaviours currently observed only at lower elevations. Streamflow monitoring networks designed for operational decision making or change detection may require modification to capture elevation‐dependent responses of streamflow to warming. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新疆巴楚和塔什库尔干地震台下方地壳结构研究

Using the teleseismic waveform data recorded by the seismic station Bachu( hereafter referred to as station BCH) i n the Tarim Basin and the seismic station Taxkorgan(h ereafter referred to as station TAG) i n the west Kunlun Mountains for years,we applied the receiver function H-κ stacking method to study the crustal structure beneath stations BCH and TAG. The results showed that there are obvious differences in the crustal thickness beneath stations BCH and TAG,and the regional crustal thickness and terrain have a very good corresponding relationship. There are high crustal average V P/ V S values beneath the two stations. The crustal thickness is 44 km,and the crustal average wave velocity ratio is 1. 849 beneath station BCH. There is a sharp discontinuity in the middle of the crust beneath station BCH at a depth of 21 km. There is a low average P wave velocity and low V P/ V S from the surface to the discontinuity beneath station BCH.The depth of the discontinuity is consistent with the lower interface of the focal depth from accurate location in the Jiashi earthquake source area adjacent to station BCH; and may be the crustal brittle-ductile conversion boundary. The crustal thickness is 69 km,and the crustal average wave velocity ratio is 1. 847 beneath station TAG,a thicker crust and high V P/ V S may indicate that materials in the lower crustal are prone to plastic flow,which is responsible for the thickening of the crust.     

Power and politics in climate change adaptation efforts: Struggles over authority and recognition in the context of political instability

Throughout the world, climate change adaptation policies supported by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have provided significant sources of funding and technical support to developing countries. Yet often the adaptation responses proposed belie complex political realities, particularly in politically unstable contexts, where power and politics shape adaptation outcomes. In this paper, the concepts of authority and recognition are used to capture power and politics as they play out in struggles over governing changing resources. The case study in Nepal shows how adaptation policy formation and implementation becomes a platform in which actors seek to claim authority and assert more generic rights as political and cultural citizens. Focusing on authority and recognition helps illuminate how resource governance struggles often have very little to do with the resources themselves. Foundational to the argument is how projects which seek to empower actors to manage their resources, produce realignments of power and knowledge that then shape who is invested in what manner in adaptation. The analysis adds to calls for reframing ‘adaptation’ to encompass the socionatural processes that shape vulnerability by contributing theoretical depth to questions of power and politics.     

砂砾石大坝填筑碾压的相关试验与研究

针对南疆砂砾石填筑大坝进行碾压试验,验证坝体填筑设计压实标准的合理性、检验22 t自行式振动碾的适用性及其性能的可靠性。本试验主要采用室内相对密度试验、现场的碾压测定出碾压遍数、碾压沉降及相应密实度及其他试验参数,通过试验参数列表、试验参数包络线图与设计标准值的比较,得出最佳砂砾石填筑方案,同时也确定大坝填筑时的施工碾压控制参数,从而确保了工程质量。     

磁相变与地壳地球物理异常

我们曾提出过一种可能导致地磁和地壳电导率异常的来源：地壳中的二级磁相变,即居里（尼尔）深度附近磁化率的显著提高.这一现象能很好地解释一些来源不明的地磁异常.本文总结了在中地壳深度处、薄且高磁导率异常体的一维和多维大地电磁特征.高磁导率层引起的异常与高电导率层导致的异常相比,大小上可相比拟,但符号相反.无论在什么情况下,经典的大地电磁解释容易导致一个不真实的极厚高阻层,并且在地磁异常附近有与之对应的空间波长,二级磁相变也被认为是这一现象的可能解释.尽管在地壳中是否存在二级磁相变还有一定争议,但最近的一些固体物理实验结果进一步表明它可能是地壳各种地球物理异常的来源之一.     

具有随机状态转移矩阵的Kalman滤波

讨论状态转移矩阵为随机性矩阵时的Kalman滤波方法,并给出滤波的具体算法及分析滤波的收敛特性和参数的取值范围。通过实际算例证实了该滤波方法的有效性。