The impact of shale gas on the costs of climate policy

The use of shale gas is commonly considered as a low-cost option for meeting ambitious climate policy targets. This article explores global and country-specific effects of increasing global shale gas exploitation on the energy markets, on greenhouse gas emissions, and on mitigation costs. The global techno-economic partial equilibrium model POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems) is employed to compare policies which limit global warming to 2°C and baseline scenarios when the availability of shale gas is either high or low. According to the simulation results, a high availability of shale gas has rather small effects on the costs of meeting climate targets in the medium and long term. In the long term, a higher availability of shale gas increases baseline emissions of greenhouse gases for most countries and for the world, and leads to higher compliance costs for most, but not all, countries. Allowing for global trading of emission certificates does not alter these general results. In sum, these findings cast doubt on shale gas’s potential as a low-cost option for meeting ambitious global climate targets.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Many countries with a large shale gas resource base consider the expansion of local shale gas extraction as an option to reduce their GHG emissions. The findings in this article imply that a higher availability of shale gas in these countries might actually increase emissions and mitigation costs for these countries and also for the world. An increase in shale gas extraction may spur a switch from coal to gas electricity generation, thus lowering emissions. At the global level and for many countries, though, this effect is more than offset by a crowding out of renewable and nuclear energy carriers, and by lower energy prices, leading to higher emissions and higher mitigation costs in turn. These findings would warrant a re-evaluation of the climate strategy in most countries relying on the exploitation of shale gas to meet their climate targets.     

The global impacts of US climate policy: a model simulation using GCAM-TU and MAGICC

To assess the potential impacts of the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, this study applied GCAM-TU (an updated version of the Global Change Assessment Model) to simulate global and regional emission pathways of energy-related CO₂, which show that US emissions in 2100 would reduce to ?2.4?Gt, ?0.7?Gt and ?0.2?Gt under scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP3.7 and RCP4.5, respectively. Two unfavourable policy scenarios were designed, assuming a temporary delay and a complete stop for US mitigation actions after 2015. Simulations by the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) indicate that the temperature increase by 2100 would rise by 0.081°C–0.161°C compared to the three original RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) if US emissions were kept at their 2015 levels until 2100. The probability of staying below 2°C would decrease by 6–9% even if the US resumes mitigation efforts for achieving its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target after 2025. It is estimated by GCAM-TU that, without US participation, increased reduction efforts are required for the rest of the world, including developing countries, in order to achieve the 2°C goal, resulting in 18% higher global cumulative mitigation costs from 2015 to 2100.

Key policy insights

• President Trump’s climate policies, including planned withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, cast a shadow on international climate actions, and would lower the likelihood of achieving the 2°C target.

• To meet the 2°C target without the US means increased reduction efforts and mitigation costs for the rest of the world, and considerable economic burdens for major developing areas.

• Active state-, city- and enterprise-level powers should be supported to keep the emission reduction gap from further widening even with reduced mitigation efforts from the US federal government.

     

A new algorithm to find raster-based least-cost paths using cut and fill operations

We developed a least-cost path analysis algorithm that satisfies a slope threshold condition in hilly terrain. The new algorithm uses an expanding moving-window to explore a combination of cells that satisfy an elevation threshold condition and then supplements this by executing cut and fill operations when there are obstacle cells between source and destination cells. Cut and fill factors regarding the difference in the actual elevation and revised elevation are considered and a least-cost path is analyzed after calculating the accumulated travel cost to the destination point. After applying the developed algorithm to synthetic and real-world data, the least accumulated travel cost from the source point can then be calculated for all cells on the raster surface by considering various slope thresholds, moving-window sizes and raster data resolutions. This algorithm can be implemented as a useful tool in GIS software as well as engineering design software utilized in the construction and mining industries.     

尺度理论视角下的“一带一路”战略解读

目前,“一带一路”已成为中国的核心发展战略之一。借鉴尺度重构和尺度政治理论,分析“一带一路”战略的内涵、影响和风险。研究发现“一带一路”战略重构了现有的国家角色和地域形式,催生了以跨国基础设施为基础、以资本和经贸合作为支撑的新尺度。该尺度一方面被国际和国内的资本和权力关系不断重构,另一方面也在重构着现有的权力关系和资本积累过程。还从尺度政治视角出发探讨了“一带一路”战略中的风险因素。在国际层面,中国既面临着基于多边国际关系和地方抵抗的尺度上推力量,也面临着基于旧有边界和尺度化表达的尺度下推因素。在国内,“一带一路”战略既面临着地方政府基于政策争夺和地方保护主义产生的重复建设问题,也存在疆独势力等通过国际联系复杂化地方趋势的风险。为了更好地推行“一带一路”战略,中国必须积极应对这些尺度政治的挑战,深入研究尺度政治的机制和破解之道,努力化解海外投资、国际合作和地方治理中的风险。     

东亚夏季大气环流和气候对冬季海温异常的邻响应和遥响应

本文通过ＩＡＰ－ＧＣＭ的数值模拟,研究了全球大气环流对黑潮海域和赤道东太平洋冬季ＳＳＴ异常的响应,并着重比较东亚大气环流和气候对黑潮区ＳＳＴＡ的响应（邻响应）和对赤道东太平洋ＳＳＴＡ的响应（遥响应）。首先,无论是黑潮区ＳＳＴＡ引起的邻响应还是赤道东太平洋ＳＳＴＡ所引起的遥响应对东亚大气环流和气候变化的影响都是明显而重要的。由于在大气中低频振荡被激发出来,其响应将持续较长时间。进一步分析表明,东亚大气环流对黑潮区或赤道东太平洋冬季正ＳＳＴＡ的响应都将造成华北地区夏季的多雨,其数值模拟结果与观测相一致。另外,赤道西太平洋地区大气的异常（尤其是对流活动）对于东亚地区大气环流和气候变化有重要作用     

河北省赤城县赵家沟金矿成矿地质条件及找矿方向初探

该矿床产于尚义-赤城深断裂南侧之水泉沟正长岩外接触带中。区内主要地层为桑于群第二岩段,原岩为一套中基一中酸性火山熔岩,含金量平均为46×10^-9。矿体主要受控于东西向断裂带中,该带既为导矿构又是容矿构造。矿体具垂直分带特点。即地表为石英脉型,往深部渐变为蚀变岩型。区内赵家沟正长岩属于印支期水泉沟碱性杂岩体东延部分,含金量平均为22.2×10^-9;赵家沟金矿床形成与该岩体密切相关,岩体外接触带是本区找矿的有利地段。     

车载LiDAR移动测量系统在城市部件采集的应用

随着数字化、信息化的发展,城市部件作为城市建设、社会发展的重要载体,对智慧城市和数字城管具有重大作用.城市建设面积不断扩大,城市部件采集与管理工作压力日益增加.车载LiDAR移动测量系统作为新兴技术,近年来快速发展,将此技术应用到城市部件采集工作中,使得采集效率、安全性、精度均有较大提升.提出一套基于车载LiDAR移动...     

Sediment yield of the lower Tana River,Kenya, is insensitive to dam construction: sediment mobilization processes in a semi‐arid tropical river system

Dam construction in the 1960s to 1980s significantly modified sediment supply from the Kenyan uplands to the lower Tana River. To assess the effect on suspended sediment fluxes of the Tana River, we monitored the sediment load at high temporal resolution for 1 year and complemented our data with historical information. The relationship between sediment concentration and water discharge was complex: at the onset of the wet season, discharge peaks resulted in high sediment concentrations and counterclockwise hysteresis, while towards the end of the wet season, a sediment exhaustion effect led to low concentrations despite the high discharge. The total sediment flux at Garissa (c. 250 km downstream of the lowermost dam) between June 2012 and June 2013 was 8.8 Mt yr^‐1. Comparison of current with historical fluxes indicated that dam construction had not greatly affected the annual sediment flux. We suggest that autogenic processes, namely river bed dynamics and bank erosion, mobilized large quantities of sediments stored in the alluvial plain downstream of the dams. Observations supporting the importance of autogenic processes included the absence of measurable activities of the fall‐out radionuclides ⁷Be and ¹³⁷Cs in the suspended sediment, the rapid lateral migration of the river course, and the seasonal changes in river cross‐section. Given the large stock of sediment in the alluvial valley of the Tana River, it may take centuries before the effect of damming shows up as a quantitative reduction in the sediment flux at Garissa. Many models relate the sediment load of rivers to catchment characteristics, thereby implicitly assuming that alterations in the catchment induce changes in the sediment load. Our research confirms that the response of an alluvial river to external disturbances such as land use or climate change is often indirect or non‐existent as autogenic processes overwhelm the changes in the input signal. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

兰新第二双线铁路防风明洞实验段风荷载数值模拟研究

介绍了高速铁路防风明洞的基本作用及设计方法;利用计算流体动力学原理中的数学模型及控制方程,对兰新第二双线铁路防风明洞大风作用下的风荷载进行了分析;通过计算工况的假定以及边界条件的合理设定,采用有限体积法建立防风明洞数值分析模型,并模拟计算了平地路段、浅路堑地段和路堤地段三大类工况和70、60、50、40m/s4种风速情况。研究结果表明：①开孔情况下,明洞各部位所受风荷载随着风速增大而增大;②明洞迎风侧均为正压,平地地段与路堤地段所受正压较接近,最大值出现在风速为70m/s时,迎风边墙正压为3202Pa;③明洞拱顶及背风侧均为负压,浅路堑地段所受负压最大值出现在风速为70m/s时,拱顶负压为-3550Pa;④各地段背风侧所受负压均小于-1500Pa,背风墙脚与背风边墙受力基本相同;⑤各地段各风速情况下,拱顶处负压均为最大;⑥开孔情况下的明洞各部位风荷载,普遍小于不开孔情况;⑦明洞开孔附近有回流风速,并随着外界风速增大而增大。     

高层建筑典型外墙保温材料火蔓延特性数值模拟研究

有机保温材料被广泛应用于高层建筑外墙保温体系的同时,也可能增加高层建筑的火灾风险。本文通过计算机模拟,着重研究了保温材料之一的聚苯乙烯泡沫塑料（EPS）的火蔓延速率、失重速率及温度场分布等特性。研究结果发现：发生火灾后,外墙保温材料可以在很短的时间内自下而上蔓延至整个材料表面,并有表皮着火的现象。在火焰到达材料顶部之前,向上火蔓延占主导地位,材料中部区域明显燃烧脱落,火焰在材料两端上部继续燃烧,有向下加速蔓延的趋势;之后,火焰沿着材料中部内侧向下剧烈燃烧,材料呈V字型燃烧直至熄灭。在高层建筑外墙外保温材料火蔓延中,不同着火点情况下的燃烧速率随时间变化的趋势相似,且会形成两个波峰。