The Truncated Discovery Process Model

The purpose of this paper is to describe a mathematical and computer model that has been developed by TransCanada for TransCanada Pipelines (TCPL) and for the Canadian Gas Potential Committee (CGPC) for future Canadian natural gas resource assessment work. It was developed in the contexts of developing a gas supply model for forecasting future Canadian gas supply for TCPL and of improving the CGPC's assessment methodologies and software. The model developed in this paper integrates two discovery process models used by the CGPC and solves the economic truncation problem for semi-mature to mature plays. It is based on applying techniques developed by G. M. Kaufman and J. D. Fuller and colleagues in new ways which extends the work of these authors. This model has a number of important advantages including: fast computational speed, integration of parametric and nonparametric statistical approaches, integration of the Kaufman and others model and the Arps-Roberts model, overcoming a PETRIMES limitation of a maximum of 1000 samples, providing a finding rate forecast for economic analysis and providing a fresh look at solving the economic truncation problem. The details of the new Modified Arps-Roberts Model (now known as the Truncated Discovery Process Model or TDPM for short) are discussed in this paper.     

蒋家沟泥石流输沙年际变化及其灾变预测

根据云南东川蒋家沟泥石流年输沙量的时序资料,分析了蒋家沟泥石流输沙的年际变化特征,发现历年输沙量变动幅度大,波动明显且年际变化频繁,用灰色系统理论的灾变预测方法,建立泥石流年输沙量的等维新息灾变预测模型,能够对未来可能出现的灾变年份进行较好的预测。在前期研究基础上,补充最新观测资料,建立了新的灾变时间序列和相应的等维新息灾变预测模型,使蒋家沟泥石流的年输沙量灾变预测得以连续进行,并对预测结果进行了检验,效果较为理想。     

On robustness of large quantile estimates of log-Gumbel and log-logistic distributions to largest element of the observation series: Monte Carlo results vs. first order approximation.

Robustness of large quantile estimates to the largest element in a sample of methods of moments (MOM) and L-moments (LMM) was evaluated and compared. Quantiles were estimated by log-logistic and log-Gumbel distributions. Both are lower bounded and two-parameter distributions, with the coefficient of variation (CV) serving as the shape parameter. In addition, the results of these two methods were compared with those of the maximum likelihood method (MLM). Since identification and elimination of the outliers in a single sample require the knowledge of the samples parent distribution which is unknown, one estimates it by using the parameter estimation method which is relatively robust to the largest element in the sample. In practice this means that the method should be robust to extreme elements (including outliers) in a sample.The effect of dropping the largest element of the series on the large quantile values was assessed for various coefficient of variation (CV) / sample size (N) combinations. To that end, Monte-Carlo sampling experiments were applied. The results were compared with those obtained from the single representative sample, (the first order approximation), i.e., consisting of both the average values (Ex_i) for every position (i) of an ordered sample and the theoretical quantiles based on the plotting formula (PP).The ML-estimates of large quantiles were found to be most robust to largest element of samples except for a small sample where MOM-estimates were more robust. Comparing the performance of two other methods in respect to the large quantiles estimation, MOM was found to be more robust for small and moderate samples drawn from distributions with zero lower bound as shown for log-Gumbel and log-logistic distributions. The results from representative samples were fairly compatible with the M-C simulation results. The Ex-sample results were closer to the M-C results for smaller CV-values, and to the PP-sample results for greater CV values.     

海水中铜离子对氨基酸—粘土体系液—固界面作用的影响

用Ｅ（％）－ｐＨ曲线法实验研究了海水中三元表面络合物的形成和构型。通过海水中金属铜离子对氨基酸—粘土界面作用的Ｅ（％）－ｐＨ曲线影响的研究,发现曲线具有“单向上移”的规律,表明甘氨酸、天冬氨酸—铜离子—高岭土三元体系在实验条件下主要形成（Ⅰ）型三元表面络合物即≡Ｓ—Ｏ—Ｍ—Ｌ。该系列论文另一部分已研究氨基酸对金属离子—粘土体系的影响,证明可形成（Ⅱ）型三元表面络合物即≡Ｓ—Ｏ—Ｌ—Ｍ。据此可以推测（Ⅰ）型和（Ⅱ）型在某一条件下可以转变构型,其中间构型可能即是Ｌｅｃｋｉｅ等提出的环形三元表面络合物。     

南海珊瑚岛礁地貌遥感识别研究

南海珊瑚岛礁总体处于退化状态,卫星遥感可以实现珊瑚礁区底质演变的监测.本文以西沙群岛海域赵述岛为研究区域,以Landsat-8卫星遥感影像为研究数据,对浅海地貌变化进行遥感分析.将影像进行水深校正和波段组合,使用最大似然法进行珊瑚礁地貌分类,可以清晰的识别灰沙岛、礁坪、礁前坡、泻湖坡、暗滩和海面六种地貌类型,以Worl...     

Analysis of Seismic Risk by Using Site Earthquake Response Intensity

Based on the site historical earthquake data,a method of seismic risk analysis is presented.Once the frequency of earthquake response intensity and the relative value showed a logarithmic linear,the maximum similarity method would be used to obtain β,λ,and Imax,and also achieve the results of risk analysis on each site.At the same time,the "logic tree" method can be used to calibrate the uncertainty of the risk on each site.Then the final results of risk analysis indicate that this method is feasible,particularly for the sites showing intensity anomaly.     

基于等相位体概念的水下激光背向散射强度的估算方法

详细讨论了海水作为激光传输信道的基本特点,在此基础上提出了等相位体的概念,分析了等相位体的形状,并且研究了等相位体背向散射强度的估算方法,为利用伪随机序列进行水下测量或通讯获得的资料估算散射强度提供一种方法.     

决策树在遥感影像分类中的应用

在充分了解决策二叉树分类过程的基础上,以西藏波密地区的TM遥感影像为研究对象,提取并分析各种典型地物的反射光谱特征,利用不同地物的光谱差异并结合人工目视判读建立了一组能够精确、快速划分遥感影像的分类规则。用ENVI建立分类决策树对实验区遥感影像进行分类,并将分类结果和传统的最大似然法相比较。结果表明：决策树分类的总体精度和Kappa分别为97.15%和0.9644,优于传统的最大似然法,取得了较为满意的分类结果。