南平市气象局视频会商系统建设

南平市气象局基于政务网的可视化视频会商系统,将不同型号的省—地和地—县间视频会商系统级联在一起,把省—市会商面向辖区内县市局实时转发,降低会商系统的成本。通过此系统,地区气象台可以与省气象台及下属台站预报员及时的进行充分的天气预报交流,举办电视电话会议和业务培训等。     

洼地开采地下水的地质环境效应研究——以天津市黄港洼应急水源地为例

天津市是我国水资源缺乏、人均占有淡水资源最少的城市之一,也是我国地面沉降最为严重的地区之一。地面沉降现已成为天津市的主要地质灾害,并在一定程度上制约着天津城镇的可持续发展。天津市平原区洼地众多,这些洼地大部分是天津市的湿地分布区。在洼地内建设应急地下水水源地,既可以起到为城区供水,缓解城区的地面沉降,又可以改善洼地生态环境的作用。     

冰雪灾害条件下地质灾害应急抢险处置知识构成分析

知识库是冰雪灾害条件下地质灾害应急抢险决策支持系统的核心,知识库中的知识构成则是整个研究的基础。本文按照产生式规则法的知识表示方式,分别分析了冰雪灾害条件下地质灾害应急抢险处置知识的前提及结论部分的主要构成内容,并总结了应急抢险处置措施选择应该遵循的基本原则,另外还给出了根据知识构成抽取具体知识的范例,为冰雪灾害条件下地质灾害应急抢险知识库及决策支持系统的建立提供了基础性研究成果。     

一种基于改进SEIR模型的突发公共卫生事件风险动态评估与预测方法——以欧洲十国COVID-19为例

突发公共卫生事件会严重影响社会公众生命健康,风险评估和预测可为突发公共卫生事件有效防控提供科学依据。本文提出了一种基于SEIR模型的突发公共卫生事件风险动态评估与预测方法,将突发公共卫生事件传播与人口、医疗、经济情况相结合,耦合危险性与脆弱性,建立合理的风险评估综合指标体系,利用熵值—层次分析组合模型实现突发公共卫生事件风险动态评估。此外,本文建立了传染病传播动力学修正SEIR模型,将传染病传播动力学模拟预测与风险评估相结合,实现突发公共卫生事件演变趋势的预测和风险的动态预测。2019年12月底的COVID-19疫情是一次传播速度快、感染范围广、防控难度大的重大突发公共卫生事件。本文以欧洲10国COVID-19疫情为例,开展风险评估与风险动态预测研究,依据欧洲10国自疫情开始至2020年4月16日的疫情数据,预测了2020年4月17日—2020年5月10日疫情演变的趋势,进而实现了10国的疫情风险动态预测。本文模型预测结果表明至2020年5月10日欧洲10国疫情形势仍然严峻,预测数据与真实数据的拟合优度R ²大于0.92,预测结果与疫情真实情况基本一致,在此情况下,复工复产对于疫情防控仍然是不利的。本文提出的基于SEIR模型的公共卫生事件风险动态评估与预测方法为疫情已然传播开的国家和地区提供了风险持续评估和预测的可能,为后期疫情防控决策提供了支持,同时也可用于今后新的疫情发生时期或其他突发性公共卫生事件下风险的应急评估和预测。     

Modeling and representation for earthquake emergency response knowledge: perspective for working with geo-ontology

Earthquake emergency response is one of the three earthquake disaster mitigation work systems in China, already achieving good results in some earthquake disaster mitigation situations. Earthquake emergency plans and emergency command systems are among the most important research and operations components of emergency response. These components commonly come with challenges, such as the pertinence of emergency commands and the operability of the countermeasures to be improved. The promise for solving this problem resides with applying knowledge that aids intelligence creation for decision-making. In this paper, we put forward a conceptual model of knowledge for earthquake disaster emergency response (EDER); compositions of EDER knowledge are introduced within architecture. A modeling method incorporating geo-ontology is used to build basic modeling primitives. Geo-ontology serves to represent geospatial characteristics of the EDER knowledge and addresses a need for semantic interoperability in the modeling process. A decision problem framework and a case study have been used as theoretical framework and an application test, respectively, to evaluate the EDER knowledge architecture and models. The EDER knowledge model provides a foundation for intelligent emergency response that helps solve knowledge problems to improve earthquake disaster response.     

Airborne near-real-time monitoring of assembly and parking areas in case of large-scale public events and natural disasters

A critical requirement for an effective and coordinated response by public entities tasked with management, security, and relief during large-scale public events or natural disasters is the availability of current situational information. However, today there is a lack of comprehensive operational systems allowing a near-real-time (NRT) collection, visualization, and provision of situational information for larger areas. In this study a methodological framework is proposed, which allows an NRT extraction and visualization of situational information based on aerial image acquisition. The framework combines digital image analysis using a generic supervised information extraction approach based on statistical modeling with a downstream web-based visualization component realized through an automatic update of web services. Even though being applicable for different scenarios, the workflow will be demonstrated for the specific use-case of a NRT monitoring of open spaces including assembly and parking areas. Compared to other approaches, image analysis results indicate a high robustness and a low demand for computational power sources (7 seconds per image). Due to a high degree of automation, the proposed workflow contributes to a NRT ‘end-to-end’ monitoring system, which was developed within the VABENE (German acronym for ‘traffic management under large-scale public events and disaster conditions’) project covering all parts from the acquisition of raw aerial imagery to the dissemination of information products to end-users.     

泰安市地质灾害预警预报系统研究

主要介绍了泰安市地质灾害气象风险预警与指挥系统。系统开发的主要目的是为了更好的与泰安市地质灾害防治工作相结合,通过对气象因素及地质灾害资料的分析和研究,基于地质灾害气象预警模型,采用先进的 GIS 技术能实现对地质灾害易发风险性区域预警,能直观地了解到各部分区域的地质灾害易发风险性,为各级政府防灾减灾提供科学的技术支撑。     

微量污染物应急及在线监测技术在珠江流域水源地的应用

法国AQUAPOD Light分析仪和AQUAPOD case应急监测仪用于微量有毒有机物和常规水质参数的在线监测,可对未知有机污染物发出报警,是实用性很强的微量污染物在线监测技术手段。基于该系统已建立了17个珠江流域特征有毒污染物的在线监测模型,将其应用于珠江重点饮用水源地,并对数据模型进行了检验;系统还具备常规参数的监测能力,其对COD、TOC和硝酸盐类等污染物监测的数据经与实验室内测试结果相比较,数据误差分布的检验结果表明其准确度和精密度均较好。     

新疆地震应急基础数据的处理和建库

介绍了新疆地震应急基础数据库的构成、数据处理和建库及数据库在地震应急指挥技术系统中发挥的作用等。解决了多源数据的处理和整合、多种数据库之间的协同和关联、海量数据的集成等问题。     

楼宇内部路径规划算法研究及其应用综述

在人群密集的大型楼宇,构建基于楼宇内部空间三维拓扑结构的逃生疏散路径,是当前路径规划算法研究的难点和热点。本文对当前常见的路径规划算法进行优劣对照比较,并详细阐述其在楼宇内部逃生疏散场景应用的算法思想和主要特征,最后总结了楼宇内部路径规划算法研究的发展方向。