PCA-BP神经网络在SO2浓度预报中的应用

将基于主成分分析(PCA)的BP神经网络预报方法引入大气污染预报,建立SO2浓度预报模型.结果表明:应用主成分分析对数据进行前处理,以原始预报因子的主成分作为BP神经网络的输入,降低了数据维数,消除了样本间存在的相关性,大大加快了BP神经网络的收敛速度.对模型进行预报验证,预报值与实际值之间的绝对误差为0.0098,预报值与实际值的相关系数达到0.885,得到较好的预报效果.并且比一般的BP神经网络模型具有较高的拟合和预报精度.     

Lead isotope evolution of the Central European upper mantle:Constraints from the Bohemian Massif

The Pb isotope composition of the upper mantle beneath Central Europe is heterogeneous due to the subduction of regionally contrasting material during the Variscan and Alpine orogenies.Late Variscan to Cenozoic mantlederived melts allow mapping this heterogeneity on a regional scale for the last ca.340 Myr.Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic anorogenic magmatic rocks of the Bohemian Massif(lamprophyres,volcanic rocks of basanite/tephrite and trachyte/phonolite series) concentrate mostly in the Eger Rift.Cretaceous ultramafic lamprophyres yielded the most radiogenic Pb isotope signatures reflecting a maximum contribution from metasomatised lithospheric mantle,whereas Tertiary alkaline lamprophyres originated from mantle with less radiogenic ~(206)Pb/~(204)b ratios suggesting a more substantial modification of lithospheric source by interaction with asthenosphericderived melts.Cenozoic volcanic rocks of the basanite/tephrite and trachyte/phonolite series define a linear mixing trend between these components,indicating dilution of the initial lithospheric mantle signature by upwelling asthenosphere during rifting.The Pb isotope composition of Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic magmatic rocks of the Bohemian Massif follows the same Pb growth curve as Variscan orogenic lamprophyres and lamproites that formed during the collision between Laurussia,Gondwana,and associated terranes.This implies that the crustal Pb signature in the post-Variscan mantle is repeatedly sampled by younger anorogenic melts.Most Cenozoic mantle-derived rocks of Central Europe show similar Pb isotope ranges as the Bohemian Massif.     

基于嵌入河道栅格的山洪灾害淹没模拟

文章以江西省曹水作为山洪灾害淹没模拟的研究区域,通过嵌入河道栅格修订数字地形,采用FloodArea水文淹没模型对数字高程模型(Digital Elevation Model,DEM)对修订前后的同一降水过程进行模拟,结合实地考察流域内淹没痕迹和水文站水位资料对比分析两者的模拟结果,并利用确定性系数和Nash—Sutcliffe效率系数对2000—2010年间出现的强降水过程的模拟结果进行验证。结论表明:基于嵌入河道栅格的山洪灾害淹没模拟能较好地反映曹水流域内的因降水导致的山洪推进路线、淹没范围及淹没水深,该方法可作为推算曹水流域的山洪灾害致灾临界面雨量的基础。     

莫桑比克东部滨海砂矿矿物组成及特征

滨海砂矿是目前全球最大的潜在矿产资源之一。以莫桑比克的滨海砂矿作为研究对象,利用光学显微镜、X射线衍射、扫描电镜、等离子体质谱（ICP-MS）等手段对莫桑比克东部滨海砂矿的矿物组成及特征进行了研究。并用数理统计方法讨论了重砂矿的元素赋存状态及其载体矿物。研究结果表明：（1）砂矿的矿石矿物主要为钛铁矿、金红石和锆石,脉石矿物主要为石英和长石。（2）重砂矿的主要化学组分为Ti和zr;Hf及REE为次要组分;而主要有害元素组分Th和U,其总体含量低,故重砂矿对采选加工和产品利用均无明显环境危害。（3）重砂矿中元素含量与粒度之间呈一定相关性,显示zr、Hf、U、Cr、Ta的载体矿物的粒度相对较细;Ti、Fe、V、Nb的载体矿物的粒度相对较粗。     

PM10 Source Apportionment in Ahvaz,Iran, Using Positive Matrix Factorization

Source apportionment of particulate matter <10 µm in diameter (PM₁₀), having considerable impacts on human health and the environment, is of high priority in air quality management. The present study, therefore, aimed at identifying the potential sources of PM₁₀ in an arid area of Ahvaz located in southwest of Iran. For this purpose, we collected 24‐h PM₁₀ samples by a high volume air sampler. The samples were then analyzed for their elemental (Al, As, B, Ba, Be, Ca, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, K, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, Pb, Se, Si, Sn, Sr, Li, Ti, V, Zn, Mo, and Sb) and ionic (NH, Cl^?, NO, and SO) components using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry and ion chromatography instruments, respectively. Eight factors were identified by positive matrix factorization: crustal dust (41.5%), road dust (5.5%), motor vehicles (11.5%), marine aerosol (8.0%), secondary aerosol (9.5%), metallurgical plants (6.0%), petrochemical industries and fossil fuel combustion (13.0%), and vegetative burning (5.0%). Result of this study suggested that the natural sources contribute most to PM₁₀ particles in the area, followed closely by the anthropogenic sources.     

俯冲带板内地震竖向位移谱阻尼修正系数模型研究

基于日本K-NET和KiK-net台网中4695条俯冲板内地震记录的竖向分量,建立了位移谱阻尼修正系数(DMF)模型.采用基于场地周期的场地分类方法,并通过固定效应法推导出模型系数.该DMF模型考虑了谱周期、阻尼比和场地条件的影响,可以用来调整与震源和距离无关的设计反应谱.利用阻尼比对数的二次方程式对原数据进行拟合回归...     

一次积-层混合云系垂直结构和降水机制的飞机观测资料分析与数值模拟

积-层混合云是影响北京地区的重要降水云系,运用飞机探测资料结合中尺度数值模式WRF,对2014年9月23日发生在北京地区的一次积-层混合云系的垂直结构和降水机制进行了探测资料分析和数值模拟研究。通过分析云系的雷达回波演变,发现云中的对流泡没有出现爆发式增长,回波在垂直方向上增长不明显,此次过程属于积-层水平混合型云系降水。飞机探测资料分析显示,上、下午探测云系的液态水含量都不高（最大低于1 g/m3）;在云系不同高度,飞机探测到的冰晶形状主要有板状、针柱状、辐枝状和不规则状,由于云中过冷水含量相对较低,聚合冰晶的数量明显多于凇附冰晶,冰晶的聚合是云中粒子增长的主要过程。对模拟云系垂直微物理结构和降水粒子的源、汇项分析得到:高层,由凝华产生的冰晶和雪晶在过冷水含量较低的环境中不断聚并、长大并下落,云系中霰的含量很低,增大的冰晶和雪晶下落至0℃层附近融化是产生地面降水的主要机制。此外,融化层附近,雨滴捕获云滴不断长大并下降至地面也是地面降水的另一个重要来源。      

Uncertainty analysis of CO_2 flux components in subtropical evergreen coniferous plantation

We present an uncertainty analysis of ecological process parameters and CO2 flux components (Reco, NEE and gross ecosystem exchange (GEE)) derived from 3 years’ continuous eddy covariance meas-urements of CO2 fluxes at subtropical evergreen coniferous plantation, Qianyanzhou of ChinaFlux. Daily-differencing approach was used to analyze the random error of CO2 fluxes measurements and bootstrapping method was used to quantify the uncertainties of three CO2 flux components. In addition, we evaluated different ...     

Numerical modelling of heat shock-assisted rock fracture

This paper presents a numerical investigation on the effects of thermal shock as a pretreatment of rock prior to comminution. More specifically, the effect of heat shock-induced cracks on the uniaxial compressive strength of rock is numerically studied. The chosen constitutive model of rock employs a (strong) embedded discontinuity finite element formulation to describe cracks. The thermomechanical problem that governs the heat shock pretreatment of rocks is considered as an uncoupled problem because of a highly dominating role of the external heat influx. Two solution methods of the global problem are presented: an explicit-explicit dynamic scheme and an implicit-implicit quasi-static scheme. The model performance is tested in simulations on heterogeneous numerical rock samples subjected first to a heat shock pretreatment and then to a mechanical compression test. According to the results, the compressive strength of intact granite rock having the axial splitting failure mode can be substantially reduced by heat shock pretreatment.