Robustness of flood-model calibration using single and multiple events

ABSTRACT

Lack of discharge data for model calibration is challenging for flood prediction in ungauged basins. Since establishment and maintenance of a permanent discharge station is resource demanding, a possible remedy could be to measure discharge only for a few events. We tested the hypothesis that a few flood-event hydrographs in a tropical basin would be sufficient to calibrate a bucket-type rainfall–runoff model, namely the HBV model, and proposed a new event-based calibration method to adequately predict floods. Parameter sets were chosen based on calibration of different scenarios of data availability, and their ability to predict floods was assessed. Compared to not having any discharge data, flood predictions improved already when one event was used for calibration. The results further suggest that two to four events for calibration may considerably improve flood predictions with regard to accuracy and uncertainty reduction, whereas adding more events beyond this resulted in small performance gains.     

西秦岭断裂走滑与盆地的耦合——西秦岭—松甘块体新生代向东走滑挤出的证据

新生代西秦岭—松甘块体向东挤出是印度—欧亚大陆碰撞后青藏东北部一种主要应变响应形式 ,它构成青藏高原东部走滑调节带的北支 ,并与南部印支挤出构造一起共同调节和吸收大陆碰撞后青藏东部的变形。西秦岭岷县—宕昌断裂的走滑与新生代盆地在时空上的耦合 ,明显展示出西秦岭—松甘块体向东走滑挤出历程并提供了走滑作用的定量标尺。古近纪岷县—宕昌断裂的走滑位移量为 36km ,而新近纪则为 76km ,相应的平均走滑速率分别为 0 .0 86mm/a和 0 .37mm/a ,表明新生代西秦岭—松甘块体向东挤出的幅度至少为 112km。西秦岭新生代幔源岩浆活动是在块体挤出背景下 ,块体旋转停止、断裂面弯曲和走滑加速等诸事件耦合的结果 ,同时也是断裂走滑的物质和时间记录器 ,表明岷县—宕昌断裂新生代的走滑波及到了岩石圈底部 ,记录了青藏东北部变形响应的动力学机制从以块体旋转为主向快速走滑为转变的时间 ,即西秦岭—松甘块体向东快速挤出的可能时间为 2 1.1～ 2 5 .4Ma。     

Glacial outlet valley size–ice drainage area relationships: some considerations

Previous work indicates that large variations in the power‐law relationship, relating glacial outlet valley size to ice drainage area, may occur between different glaciological settings. In this paper, we take issue with methods used to quantify the relationships of outlet valley size to drainage area size and propose a general method for comparing power‐law relationships between study areas, to determine whether or not such power‐law scalings are similar. Based on this method, we demonstrate that outlet valleys have a similar sensitivity to variation in ice‐contributing area irrespective of their glaciological setting, contrary to earlier findings. Minor variation in such relationships may reflect the different lithological and glaciological settings of the study sites and provide an insight into the physics of glacial erosional development of landscapes. Despite their limitations, we conclude that power‐law relationships are valid and, when interpreted carefully, provide a useful basis for comparing the efficiency of glacial erosion processes in different locations. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于Delaunay三角网模型的等高线地形特征提取及谷地树结构化组织

基于Delaunay三角网模型在矢量等高线基础上通过弯曲特征分析，给出了一种地形结构特征提取及谷地树组织的方法，与传统的基于DEM或TIN数据结构提取地形特征的方法相比，该方法不仅得到了谷地系统在平面图上的拓扑结构，还获得了河谷在空间分布上的汇水范围，依托矢量线、多边形的几何关系判断，增强了谷地树组织中的结构化，避免了DEM方法中的噪音干扰，方法的核心是Delaunay三角网在单根等高线弯曲深度表达上的层次结构识别。基于系统地实验详细讨论了3种树的结构化组织：等高线弯曲特征嵌套结构表达的二叉树、谷地系统拓扑关系表达的平面结构树、水文意义上主支流河谷表达的语义层次树。     

基于Delaunay三角网模型的等高线地形特征提取及谷地树结构化组织

基于Delaunay三角网模型在矢量等高线基础上通过弯曲特征分析，给出了一种地形结构特征提取及谷地树组织的方法，与传统的基于DEM或TIN数据结构提取地形特征的方法相比，该方法不仅得到了谷地系统在平面图上的拓扑结构，还获得了河谷在空间分布上的汇水范围，依托矢量线、多边形的几何关系判断，增强了谷地树组织中的结构化，避免了DEM方法中的噪音干扰，方法的核心是Delaunay三角网在单根等高线弯曲深度表达上的层次结构识别。基于系统地实验详细讨论了3种树的结构化组织：等高线弯曲特征嵌套结构表达的二叉树、谷地系统拓     

大别山造山带与安徽沿江中新生代盆地的盆山耦合关系

安徽沿江中新生代盆地位于大别山造山带南缘，为先挤压、后伸展形成的叠合盆地，是探讨扬子板块陆内深俯冲—大别山造山带隆起与中、下扬子盆地沉降的耦合关系的理想场所。在早中生代，大别山为华南和华北大陆碰撞造山带，华南地壳向深处俯冲并承受超高压变质作用，超高压变质岩不断向上折返，沿江坳陷具有前陆盆地性质，盆地充填有晚三叠世—中侏罗世磨拉石层序；在晚中生代，在中国东部整体的拉张背景下，大别山变质带完全折返上隆，处于变质核杂岩隆升状态，而沿江坳陷具有裂陷盆地性质，充填有晚侏罗世—早白垩世、晚白垩世—古近纪两个红色碎屑构造层序，起因于地壳拆沉而产生的均衡隆升和伸展断陷的构造耦合。     

Seasonal Trend in the Occurrence of Nocturnal Drainage Flow on a Forested Slope Under a Tropical Monsoon Climate

Using data for one year, we examined the vertical wind speed profileson a mountain slope covered with forest in northern Thailand undera tropical monsoon climate. We defined two profile patterns: higherwind speeds at greater heights (Pattern 1) and lower wind speeds atgreater heights (Pattern 2). We classified 9.4% of the data as Pattern 2;this pattern tended to occur during the night, at low wind speeds, and with high outgoing longwave radiation. In addition, stable stratification anddecoupling between the canopy surface air and the overlying layers wereobserved when Pattern 2 occurred frequently. These facts suggested thatPattern 2 was caused by a nocturnal drainage flow. The occurrence ofPattern 2 showed a clear seasonal trend, indicating that there is a seasonaltrend in the occurrence of nocturnal drainage flows. Pattern 2 was observedmore frequently between August and February and less frequently betweenMarch and July. This corresponded to the seasonal trend in wind speed, butdid not correspond to the seasonal trend in the outgoing longwave radiation.     

内蒙古海拉尔～二连盆地群含煤地层层序和聚煤盆地类型的划分

海拉尔～二连盆地群蕴藏着丰富的煤、石油,是内蒙古乃至全国能源资源供应的重要基地之一。本文对盆地群的含煤地层层序和聚煤盆地类型进行分析研究,得出以下结论:海拉尔～二连盆地群早白垩世含煤地层层序自下而上划分为底砂砾岩段、粉砂泥岩含煤段、泥岩段、上粉砂岩含煤段、上砂砾岩段;海拉尔～二连盆地群的盆地类型分为半地堑盆地、地堑盆地、断陷—坳陷型盆地。     

银座大厦深基坑地下水疏干措施

在深基坑开挖中采取常规降水措施，经常会产生含水层疏不干的问题。本文以银座大厦工程为例，探讨了其中原因，并且总结出疏干地下水的主要措施和辅助措施。