鄱阳湖区平垸行洪、退田还湖后的防洪减灾形势分析

根据鄱阳湖区“退田还湖”的实际资料，采用洪水模拟的方法分析计算出“退田还湖”降低湖口站洪水位和减少1954年洪水超额分洪量，分析了“退田还湖”后鄱阳湖区的防洪减灾形势，提出应继续加强对鄱阳湖区防洪工程的建设，探讨了“退田还湖”后江湖洪水关系的变化趋势。     

Meteorological Office, Pune-411 005

Natural disasters like floods, tornadoes, tropicalcyclones, heat and cold wavewreak havoc and cause tremendous loss ofproperty all over the world. Most ofthe natural disasters are either dueto weather or are triggered due toweather related processes.Extreme weather events claimed thousands oflives and caused damage on vastscale. Recent super cyclone which affectedOrissa in 1999, Bangladesh cyclone of1970 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 areexamples of some of the more damagingtropical cyclones which affected developingas well as the developed world. Heatand cold waves are also extreme events,which cause enormous losses in terms oflives lost and human discomfort and ailmentsarising out of them. The heat waveof 1995 and 1998 are still fresh in the mindof the Indian public. The estimated lossof human lives due to heat wave in 1998 was morethan 15,000. Economic losses asa result of these disasters and in particular inassociation with tropical cyclones haveincreased enormously over the last three decades.During 1961–1991, total loss oflives from drought alone was 1,333,728 overthe whole world. In terms of economiclosses, there is 8–10 fold increase from thebase figure of 1960. The socio-economicimpact of natural disaster is complex dependingupon the vulnerability of the placeand mitigation strategies that are put in place.Meteorology plays a crucial role in forewarningpeople about the severe/extremeweather systems and a constant endeavour by themeteorological services worldover has gone a long way towards minimizing thelosses caused by natural disasters.The paper summarises the natural disasterstatistics over south Asia and the possibleprediction strategies for combating theirsocio-economic impacts.     

中国热带近百年气候波动与灾害

The temperature appeared rising trend during the 20th century in China's tropics.Two cooling stages and two warming stages in the process of climatic fluctuation can be recognized.After the 1980s the climate is the warmest which corresponds to the global change,but the warmest period is the 1940s in Kunming.The climate pattern mostly appears contemporaneity of warming and humidity,which is different from the situation of whole China.The natural disasters tend to be aggravated.The number of typhoons increased.Flood damages occurred frequently in the years of more typhoons.The number of droughts and cold damages increased.It was snowed in Guangzhou.There was frost in Haikou and Yaxian.Four years of heavy snow have been recorded in Kunming.     

2003年9月19日陕西暴雨分析

利用太原地区发生的798个地质灾害个例和汛期降水资料,从地质环境背景着手,在地理信息系统(MAPGIS)支持下,对太原地质灾害危险性区划和诱发因素进行了系统研究。提出了精细的地质环境概率量化评价方法,得出了地质灾害影响因素的重要结论。建立了地质灾害预报模型,制定了预报等级标准和预报规则。经业务试验,预报结果与实况基本吻合。     

2003年2月14日新疆石河子南5.0和5.4级地震灾害减轻因素的分析

2003年2月14日新疆石河子南发生了5．0和5．4级地震。地震发生在北天山石场东南高山区内，位于亚马特断裂与斜切天山的博罗科努断裂所夹持断块的南缘。地震仅对石河子南山矿区所属的红沟煤矿、小沟煤矿与沙湾县煤矿等50、60年代建造的部分危房造成了轻微的破坏，大部分地区的房屋基本完好。造成地震灾害减轻的主要原因为多条断裂的隔震作用与居民点位于山区较平缓地带、场地条件较好等因素。     

发挥地震学会优势促进防震减灾工作--关于加强山西省地震学会管理工作的几点思考

随着我国机构改革的不断深入和社会主义市场经济体制的逐步建立和完善，地震学会同其他社会团体一样将成为现代社会的支柱之一。以山西省地震学会目前的工作现状为例，指出学会在管理体制、运行机制和活动方式等方面存在的问题，提出了发展思路及建议。     

试论实施防震减灾社会动员的途径与方法

0前言中国是一个多地震国家,频繁而严重的地震灾害给人民生命和财产带来了巨大的损失,防震减灾任务任重而道远。回良玉副总理2004年在全国防震减灾工作会议讲话中指出:“防震减灾是全社会共同的责任,要广泛动员社会各方的力量,积极投入到这项事业中来,使防震减灾逐步成为全社会的自觉行动。”因此,总结近40年我国防震减灾工作和改革开放的实践经验,对社会公众进行各种防震减灾宣传教育,广泛动员全社会力量,建立健全防震减灾社会动员机制,增强全社会防震减灾意识,是提高我国综合防震减灾能力,有效地促进地震灾害综合防御各项措施落实的重要途…     

我国地震海浪初步分析

总结了我国地震海浪的25次记录,在做初步分析后认为我国的地震海浪多由近海海洋地震引起,其多发地区为渤海沿岸与东南沿海一带.随着对沿海地区开发的深入,这类记载逐渐增多,受灾程度加大.另外分析了在社会历史变迁中,国家对海洋的开发政策、沿海开发下城市近海地理位置、沿海港口及海洋贸易的规模与地震海浪受灾程度之间的关系.     

The impact of epistemic uncertainty on an earthquake loss model

Models capable of estimating losses in future earthquakes are of fundamental importance for emergency planners, for the insurance and reinsurance industries, and for code drafters. Constructing a loss model for a city, region or country involves compiling databases of earthquake activity, ground conditions, attenuation equations, building stock and infrastructure exposure, and vulnerability characteristics of the exposed inventory, all of which have large associated uncertainties. Many of these uncertainties can be classified as epistemic, implying—at least in theory—that they can be reduced by acquiring additional data or improved understanding of the physical processes. The effort and cost involved in refining the definition of each component of a loss model can be very large, for which reason it is useful to identify the relative impact on the calculated losses due to variations in these components. A mechanically sound displacement‐based approach to loss estimation is applied to a test case of buildings along the northern side of the Sea of Marmara in Turkey. Systematic variations of the parameters defining the demand (ground motion) and the capacity (vulnerability) are used to identify the relative impacts on the resulting losses, from which it is found that the influence of the epistemic uncertainty in the capacity is larger than that of the demand for a single earthquake scenario. Thus, the importance of earthquake loss models which allow the capacity parameters to be customized to the study area under consideration is highlighted. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Annihilation of both place and sense of place: the experience of the Cheslatta T'En Canadian First Nation within the context of large-scale environmental projects

The water resources of Canada are today, and have always been, of major importance to the welfare of Canadians. Throughout most of Canada's history, these resources have been viewed within a supply–management framework and, frequently, exploited through the construction of 'megaprojects', often with little or no concern for issues such as environmental harm and social and community disruption. As in many parts of the world, those most affected by such large-scale water resource developments have been aboriginals (in Canada, 'First Nations' peoples). Although the issues of environmental, social and economic damage to First Nations as a result of water megaprojects have been investigated, little has been written about the impact of such projects – especially dam construction – on the loss of sense of place of deracinated peoples. This paper investigates one example of such loss of sense of place, that of the Cheslatta T'En forcibly removed from their ancestral lands in the 1950s so as to allow for the construction of a private hydroelectric dam by the Aluminum Company of Canada (Alcan).