模块化模糊神经网络的数值预报产品释用预报研究

综合应用预报量自身时间序列的拓展,数值预报产品和模块化模糊神经网络方法,进行了一种新的数值预报产品释用预报研究。将这种新方法与常规的数值预报产品完全预报(PP)方法进行了对比试验。结果表明,这种模块化模糊神经网络数值预报产品释用预报方法比PP预报方法的预报精度显著提高。并且,通过对预报模型“过拟合”现象的研究发现,这种模块化模糊神经网络的数值预报产品释用预报模型具有很好的泛化性能。     

东北大部旱情缓解 粤闽局地暴雨成灾──1997年5月

东北大部旱情缓解粤闽局地暴雨成灾—１９９７年５月—徐良炎（国家气候中心，北京１０００８１）５月份，东北大部、华北北部及黄淮等地普降喜雨，旱情缓解；西北东部、华北西部等地降水偏少，旱情持续或发展。南方大部地区雨水比较调匀，无大范围旱涝发生，但华南局地遭...     

湘鄂赣二叠纪岩相古地理研究

湘鄂赣二叠纪沉积盆地是在华南陆块基础上发育而成，具有扬子克拉通北缘被动大陆边缘盆地，扬子克拉通盆地，湘赣板内拉张盆地和华夏克拉通边缘盆地等四类。根据古暴露等标志，建立了各类盆地的沉积层序，并进行了区域对比。     

中国东部中新生代盆地成因及其地球动力学

中国东部大兴安岭－太行山－武陵山重力梯度带一线以东至太平洋西岩，大陆连缘中新生代盆地系的形成，中生代岩浆活动，盆地基本特征同Ｍｏｈｏ、岩石圈和软流圈及上地幔基本特征的内在联系等都表明，它们在时空和成因上有一定联系，可以纳入同一地球动力学过程之中，这种动力学机制可能与岩石圈界，地壳底界的拆离作用有关。     

The Organization of Production in High Technology Industries: An Empirical Assessment*

Recent attention given to the concept of vertical integration and disintegration of production processes has identified the existence of a continuum, with small, flexibly specialized producers at one end and large, mass production units at the other end. Firms along the continuum constantly strive for the optimum combination of economies of scale and scope. This paper attempts to identify the organizational characteristics of high technology firms in one industrial complex of the U.S. Manufacturing Belt. A principal components analysis is performed on a number of theoretically relevant variables for a sample of high technology establishments in Northeast Ohio. The results indicate that the region contains a variety of organizational forms ranging from isolated workshops to large, vertically integrated assembly plants. These findings conform to expectations derived from recent conceptualizations in the literature. Additional empirical research will further enhance understanding of the processes that shape the organization of production in territorial complexes.     

三角洲平原上网结河的发育与聚煤作用

龙潭组上段（２４＃煤顶板到１２＃煤）是盘县地区含煤最好的层段，对该区西北部本段地层的研究表明其中发育有网结河体系。河道沉积由多层叠置的鞋带状砂体组成，湿地沉积主要由菱铁质泥质岩夹薄层板状细砂岩（决口扇沉积）和煤组成。河流的发育和聚煤作用都显示幕式性，可能主要受海平面变化的控制。网结状河道被认为是海侵期对低位下切河谷充填过程中经侧向冲裂水道并相互连通形成的；稳定、连续的厚煤层发育于河道大范围废弃后的海侵晚期，其次是高水位早期。     

Generating fracture networks using iterated function systems

In order to model flow and transport in fractured rocks it is important to know the geometry of the fracture network. A stochastic approach is commonly used to generate a synthetic fracture network from the statistics measured at a natural fracture network. The approach presented herein is able to incorporate the structures found in a natural fracture network into the synthetic fracture network. These synthetic fracture networks are the images generated by Iterated Function Systems (IFS) as introduced by Barnsley (1988). The conditions these IFS have to fulfil to determine images resembling fracture networks and the effects of their parameters on the images are discussed. It is possible to define the parameters of the IFS in order to generate some properties of a fracture network. The image of an IFS consists of many single points and has to be suitably processed for further use.     

Genesis and distribution of mineral waters as a consequence of recent lithospheric dynamics: the Rhenish Massif,Central Europe

Three major, interdependent processes control the genesis and distribution of mineral and thermal waters in the Rhenish Massif, Central Europe: (a) Magmatic processes in the upper mantle provide most of the CO₂ to produce bicarbonate waters in shallow aquifers. (b) Extension of the brittle upper crust enables the ascent of sodium chloride waters. (c) Uplift and erosion shape the massif's relief, which determines the extent of flow systems and the distribution of thermal springs. The chemistry of mineral waters further depends on the aquifers' mineral composition. A comprehensive set of hydrological, chemical, tectonic and geophysical data on the Rhenish Massif has been compiled. It was used to classify the mineral waters and to map the spatial distribution of water properties. The composition of cuttings from several representative wells producing different water types shows that the hydrothermal alteration of the aquifer rocks consists mainly of kaolinization of chlorite and dissolution of feldspar. Numerical transport simulations favour two modes of groundwater flow: topography-driven flow and the pressure-driven ascent of basement brines along active faults. Thermal convection is less important.     

A physical statistical approach to erosion

Erosion is a complex process consisting of many components such as surface runoff, impact of raindrops, wind forces, soil and rock mechanics, etc. Trying to integrate all these processes into a physical model seems to be hopeless. In order to understand the variety of natural shapes and patterns produced by erosion we present an integrated statistical approach. Our model is based on simple physical constraints for the separation of amalgamated particles (abrasion) and for the movement of loose particles (denudation) and on the laws of statistics. After some simplifications, we obtain a nonlinear system of partial differential equations which is solved using finite volume techniques. The model is suitable for the formation of different types of rill systems and the episodic behaviour of erosion processes, a kind of self-organized criticality. Besides effects of inhomogeneities, e.g. the formation of terraces can be investigated.     

Conservation tillage and input use

 There continues to be a question as to the overall effectiveness of conservation tillage practices in reducing the impact of agricultural production on the environment. While it is generally recognized that water runoff and soil erosion will decline further, as tillage and mulch tillage systems are not used more extensively on cropland, what will happen to pesticide and fertilizer use remains uncertain. To gain some insight into this, the conservation tillage adoption decision is modelled. On the assumption that the decision to adopt conservation tillage is a two-step procedure, the first decision is whether or not to adopt a conservation tillage production system and the second concerns the extent to which conservation tillage should be used – appropriate models of the Cragg and Heckman (dominance) type are estimated. Based on farm-level data on corn production in the United States for 1987, the profile of a farm on which conservation tillage was adopted is that the cropland had above-average slope and experienced above-average rainfall, the farm was a cash grain enterprise, and it had an above-average expenditure on pesticides and a below-average expenditure on fuel and custom pesticide applications. Additionally, for a farm adopting a no-tillage production practice, an above-average expenditure was made on fertilizer. Received: 18 September 1995 · Accepted: 6 December 1995