多媒体通信技术在中国气象服务体系中的应用

基于多媒体通信技术,中国气象局构建了全国天气预报电视会商及电视会议系统。利用该系统为全国气象部门提供天气预报远程会商、行政电视电话会议、技术培训及技术交流等方面的服务功能。全国天气预报高清电视会商及电视会议系统是原有标清系统的重要升级,针对视频质量不高、系统稳定运行能力低下、组会能力不够灵活的现状,采用了先进的多媒体通信技术,建立了高清电视会商系统。介绍了的全国天气预报高清电视会商及电视会议系统结构、主要功能和关键技术,并与标清电视会商系统进行了比较。结果表明：高清电视会商系统技术领先,功能强大,是目前气象行业技术领先的视频会议系统。该系统是支撑现代气象业务体系的平台之一,在气象服务体系中具有极为重要的作用。     

山东省测绘应急会商服务系统的设计与实现

突发事件发生后迫切需要一个统一的测绘应急会商服务系统解决救灾现场、后方指挥中心与各应急参与单位之间沟通协调不便的问题。该文在对会商业务流程进行分析的基础上,从系统总体架构、系统功能设计及实现、系统关键技术等方面提出了省级测绘应急会商系统的设计和开发思路。研究了音频、视频、标绘、文字等多种会商方式集成的模式,基于数据推送的协同标绘方法,基于地理信息数据的灾害影响范围分析方法等。山东省测绘应急会商服务系统可为多级多方异地会商提供平台,适用于多种应用模式,可以服务于应急响应不同阶段。在应急响应抢险救灾阶段指挥调度、应急响应中综合评估以及应急现场综合服务等方面,为预案制定、规划设计、灾损评估及各种决策等提供内容丰富、高效便捷的地理信息服务,实现"现场—指挥中心"一体化协同应急,提高应急管理的现代化水平和各类突发事件处置应对的能力和效率,最大限度地降低灾害影响。     

A Model Output Machine Learning Method for Grid Temperature Forecasts in the Beijing Area

In this paper, the model output machine learning (MOML) method is proposed for simulating weather consultation, which can improve the forecast results of numerical weather prediction (NWP). During weather consultation, the forecasters obtain the final results by combining the observations with the NWP results and giving opinions based on their experience. It is obvious that using a suitable post-processing algorithm for simulating weather consultation is an interesting and important topic. MOML is a post-processing method based on machine learning, which matches NWP forecasts against observations through a regression function. By adopting different feature engineering of datasets and training periods, the observational and model data can be processed into the corresponding training set and test set. The MOML regression function uses an existing machine learning algorithm with the processed dataset to revise the output of NWP models combined with the observations, so as to improve the results of weather forecasts. To test the new approach for grid temperature forecasts, the 2-m surface air temperature in the Beijing area from the ECMWF model is used. MOML with different feature engineering is compared against the ECMWF model and modified model output statistics (MOS) method. MOML shows a better numerical performance than the ECMWF model and MOS, especially for winter. The results of MOML with a linear algorithm, running training period, and dataset using spatial interpolation ideas, are better than others when the forecast time is within a few days. The results of MOML with the Random Forest algorithm, year-round training period, and dataset containing surrounding gridpoint information, are better when the forecast time is longer.     

Governing geoengineering research for the Great Barrier Reef

Coral reefs are highly vulnerable to the impacts of rising marine temperatures and marine heatwaves. Mitigating dangerous climate change is essential and urgent, but many reef systems are already suffering on current levels of warming. Geoengineering options are worth exploring to protect the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) from extreme warming conditions, but we contend that they require strong governance and public consultation from the outset. Australian governments are currently funding feasibility testing of three geoengineering proposals for the GBR. Each proposal involves manipulating ocean or atmospheric conditions to lower water temperatures and thereby reduce the threat of mass coral bleaching events. Innovative strategies to protect the GBR and field testing of these is essential, but current laws do not guarantee robust governance for field testing of these technologies. Nor do they provide the foundation for a more coherent national policy on climate intervention technologies more generally. Responsible governance frameworks, including detailed risk assessment and early public consultation, are necessary for geoengineering research to build legitimacy and promote scientific progress.

Key policy insights

• Marine heatwaves pose a serious threat to coral reefs, including Australia’s iconic Great Barrier Reef.

• Australian governments have recognized the threats of warming waters, and are funding research of geoengineering options for the Great Barrier Reef.

• The limited earlier field testing of geoengineering demonstrates the need for specific governance to manage risks, build legitimacy and maintain public support.

• Australia requires a framework to govern geoengineering research and development before deployment of such technologies.

     

沈阳市防灾减灾决策气象服务系统

系统以先进的计算机通信网络为依托,采用多种信息处理技术,开发了防汛、防火、灾害性监测等针对性较强的软件,并将气象信息以图形、图象和文本等多种形式,提供给各级领导和市政府有关部门,在沈阳市的防灾减灾工作中发挥了重要作用。本文就系统的设计思路,实现的技术方法及实际应用情况作了简要介绍。     

省市县气象台之间网络天气预报会商系统

介绍了省、市、县三级气象台之间进行网络天气预报会商的基本规定、工作流程以及会商软件程序的基本功能。     

专家系统在年度会商中的应用

为了做好中国大陆年度地震趋势预测, 采用地震预报专家系统3.0对地震活动和前兆异常进行综合推理, 期望能提供一定的参考。 对2005年、 2006年全国测震、 形变、 电磁、 流体异常数据作了有选择的获取, 得到2005年、 2006年测震异常和地震前兆异常分别为82项和98项。 通过专家系统的综合推理分析, 获得了2006年度和2007年度中国大陆地震趋势预测信度结果, 结合2006年、 2007年中国大陆实际发生的5级以上地震对其进行了检验, 结果表明专家系统的预测结果基本与实际发生的5级以上的地震的位置吻合, 该方法在年度地震趋势预测中可以为地点预测提供参考。     

工程咨询企业技术创新的实践与探索

本文结合中铁二院工程集团有限责任公司的技术创新实践,分析了工程咨询企业技术创新的特点、作用与意义,探讨了工程咨询企业的技术创新途径以及实施技术创新的保障措施。     

地质灾害远程会商及应急指挥系统建设初探

本文提出了构建于卫星通讯网络的地质灾害远程会商及应急指挥系统建设的初步设想。初步构建由网络通讯平台、信息资源管理平台、信息分析及决策支持平台、信息发布及应急指挥平台组成的综合信息系统。     

桃江王家冲锑矿床地质特征及其科技咨询服务

桃江王家冲中型锑矿床，赋存在上元古界板溪群五强溪组中段灰绿色板岩中，背斜翼部的层间剥离、破碎裂隙是矿床形成的储矿构造，东西向断裂Ｖ＿４、Ｖ＿５为控矿构造。矿区一般见２～３层矿，平均厚度１．２４ｍ，平均品位Ｓｂ４．９８％。矿石矿物主要是辉锑矿。矿床成因属燕山期中低温液型锑矿床。该矿床已有７０年开采历史，去年曾出现资源危机，矿山面临关闭。笔者应邀赴矿对井下未知矿体进行预测，旨在指导生产找矿。由于科技咨询与生产找矿紧密结合，短时间内就取得了找矿突破，解了矿山燃眉之急，延长了矿山生产服务年限，社会经济效益明显。