三种统计预报模型在江苏省道路低温预警中的应用

为了更好地开展道路交通低温灾害的预警,减轻道路结冰给车辆行驶造成的危害,本文利用2012—2016年江苏省高速公路网AWMS系统交通气象观测数据,在对路面低温发生规律进行分析的基础上,结合多元线性回归、朴素贝叶斯以及支持向量机3种统计预报方法,开展了路面低温预警的统计建模与预报试验。结果表明:(1)江苏全省高速公路网路面温度出现0℃以下、-2℃以下、-5℃以下的低温频率均呈"北高南低"分布。(2)全省高速公路网路面温度出现0℃以下的低温时次大多在15:00到次日06:00之间。(3)在对京沪高速M9308站的单站建模与预报试验中发现,路面低温预报因子组合中以13:00气温、13:00—18:00气温变温、13:00路面温度、13:00—18:00路面变温、13:00路基温度、13:00—18:00路基变温、18:00相对湿度和18:00风速U分量为自变量组合的预报方程效果最好,3种方法中以朴素贝叶斯模型的预报准确率最高;(4)就全省高速公路网而言,3种统计预报模型的路面低温预报准确率均超过75%,通过对全路网路面低温预报的试验结果对比发现,多元线性回归方法对江苏省北部路网的预报效果最好,预报准确率大多在85%以上;而支持向量机模型对江苏省南部路网的预报效果最好,大部分站点的低温预报准确率达95%以上。     

鲁西北持续性暴雨非地转湿Q矢量分析

利用常规观测资料、NECP/NCAR提供的1°×1°FNL全球再分析资料,对2012年鲁西北一次持续性暴雨进行了湿Q矢量方法诊断分析。结果表明：此次持续暴雨出现在有利的环流背景下,降水区域集中并有明显的中尺度特征,湿Q矢量方法是分析强降水落区很好的工具;925～850 hPa湿Q矢量散度与强降水落区有较好的对应关系,但暴雨并不总是出现在湿Q矢量散度负值区中心,有时出现在湿Q矢量散度梯度大的负值区一侧;700 hPa湿Q矢量涡度正值中心与散度负值重叠的区域是中尺度低值系统发展有利的区域,与未来6～12 h暴雨落区有很好的对应;湿Q矢量锋生函数差值预报强降水落区明显优于锋生函数。     

Impact of Perturbation Schemes on the Ensemble Prediction in a Coupled Lorenz Model

Based on a simple coupled Lorenz model, we investigate how to assess a suitable initial perturbation scheme for ensemble forecasting in a multiscale system involving slow dynamics and fast dynamics. Four initial perturbation approaches are used in the ensemble forecasting experiments: the random perturbation(RP), the bred vector(BV), the ensemble transform Kalman filter(ETKF), and the nonlinear local Lyapunov vector(NLLV) methods. Results show that,regardless of the method used, the ensemble ave...     

On the local multiscale determination of the Earth’s disturbing potential from discrete deflections of the vertical

As a first approximation, the Earth is a sphere; as a second approximation, it may be considered an ellipsoid of revolution. The deviations of the actual Earth’s gravity field from the ellipsoidal “normal” field are so small that they can be understood to be linear. The splitting of the Earth’s gravity field into a “normal” and a remaining small “disturbing” field considerably simplifies the problem of its determination. Under the assumption of an ellipsoidal Earth model, high observational accuracy is achievable only if the deviation (deflection of the vertical) of the physical plumb line, to which measurements refer, from the ellipsoidal normal is not ignored. Hence, the determination of the disturbing potential from known deflections of the vertical is a central problem of physical geodesy. In this paper, we propose a new, well-promising method for modelling the disturbing potential locally from the deflections of the vertical. Essential tools are integral formulae on the sphere based on Green’s function with respect to the Beltrami operator. The determination of the disturbing potential from deflections of the vertical is formulated as a multiscale procedure involving scale-dependent regularized versions of the surface gradient of the Green function. The modelling process is based on a multiscale framework by use of locally supported surface curl-free vector wavelets.      

志愿者地理信息中天桥的自动识别方法

基于天桥的几何与属性特征,提出了一种志愿者地理信息中自动识别天桥的方法。天桥从几何结构上可分为主桥和附属设施两个部分,主桥部分特征鲜明,可以视为两类分类问题,依据其几何特征和属性特征构建特征空间,利用支持向量机的方法进行识别;附属设施部分可依据已识别的天桥主桥,按照路段的长度、属性等判定规则进行识别,从而完成整个天桥的自动识别。以北京市OpenStreetMap(osm)数据进行试验验证的结果表明,本文提出的方法能有效地识别出志愿者地理信息中的典型天桥结构,可以为志愿者地理信息道路网的多尺度建模与化简、步行导航等提供帮助。     

基于Html5的Web Map矢量渲染技术研究

当下主流平台(即桌面PC,Android,IOS等)上Web浏览器都支持Html5标准。Html5的到来让Web应用的性能和易用性明显提升,其中Canvas元素是Html5标准中新增的技术之一,被JavaScript用来进行图形图像的绘制和矢量渲染。针对传统切片式Web Map存在的不足,文中以Web地图矢量渲染为研究切入点,分析一种基于JSON的地理信息数据传输格式,并使用Html5Canvas构建矢量Web Map,即在浏览器中地理数据矢量渲染的设计和实现,兼具自定义渲染风格而无需重新请求加载图层,减少瓦片请求所需的带宽,改善Web Map实时显示的性能,探索进一步直接实现Web Map空间分析能力的可行性。     

一种基于SVM的无人机影像中单个建筑物的角点检测方法

针对目前无人机影像中单个建筑物角点的检测现状,提出了一种基于支持向量机(SVM)的无人机影像中建筑物的角点检测方法。首先对4个波段的无人机影像进行多尺度分割,计算影像的NDVI,通过植被与非植被区域的波谱差异剔除植被的影响。其次,用面向对象分类法将"建筑物块"从影像中提取出来,对"建筑物块"区域用Harris算子进行边缘检测,形成建筑物边缘点集数据。随后通过设计高斯径向基将边缘样本点映射到高维特征空间,构建特征向量,采用边缘点集训练SVM分类模型,最终通过SVM分类模型从粗提取的边缘点集中检测出正确的建筑物角点,实现了单个建筑物的角点提取。     

Using pan-sharpened high resolution satellite data to improve impervious surfaces estimation

Impervious surface is an important environmental and socio-economic indicator for numerous urban studies. While a large number of researches have been conducted to estimate the area and distribution of impervious surface from satellite data, the accuracy for impervious surface estimation (ISE) is insufficient due to high diversity of urban land cover types. This study evaluated the use of panchromatic (PAN) data in very high resolution satellite image for improving the accuracy of ISE by various pan-sharpening approaches, with a further comprehensive analysis of its scale effects. Three benchmark pan-sharpening approaches, Gram-Schmidt (GS), PANSHARP and principal component analysis (PCA) were applied to WorldView-2 in three spots of Hong Kong. The on-screen digitization were carried out based on Google Map and the results were viewed as referenced impervious surfaces. The referenced impervious surfaces and the ISE results were then re-scaled to various spatial resolutions to obtain the percentage of impervious surfaces. The correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE) were adopted as the quantitative indicator to assess the accuracy. The accuracy differences between three research areas were further illustrated by the average local variance (ALV) which was used for landscape pattern analysis. The experimental results suggested that 1) three research regions have various landscape patterns; 2) ISE accuracy extracted from pan-sharpened data was better than ISE from original multispectral (MS) data; and 3) this improvement has a noticeable scale effects with various resolutions. The improvement was reduced slightly as the resolution became coarser.     

基于高分一号用于植被信息提取的假彩色数字正射影像制作方案研究

对如何利用高分一号卫星数据制作假彩色数字正射彩色影像图进行了研究,基于高分一号利用432波段组合,可以突出地显示出植被信息,处理成果纹理细节清晰,无明显噪声,高分一号数据制作的标准假彩色数字正射影像图可以保证数据成果色彩分明,植被提取和解译精度高。     

基于ArcGIS Engine的小型地籍信息管理系统的开发

在地籍信息的管理建设中,将地籍数据的属性数据与矢量数据一体化,建立小型的地籍信息管理系统,可以降低管理成本,为地籍信息管理工作提供便捷的管理手段和有效的决策。本文对地籍信息管理系统的现状进行了研究,总结了系统的总体框架,并且阐述了所涉及的关键技术,选用.NET架构搭建平台,利用C/S模式实现了小型地籍信息管理系统的开发。根据系统的需求与数据的特征,以ArcGIS Engine、VS2010、C#为开发工具,在ArcCatalog中建立文件地理数据库,实现了查询、统计、数据的编辑更新、空间分析、专题图制作、统计与输出等功能。通过实验数据验证,本系统操作简便,可满足对地籍数据管理的需要。