区域含水层系统结构的体视化表达及地下水位预测——以江苏省宿迁市为例

本文结合宿市区域水文地质条件的实际状况,利用GMS对宿迁市区域含水层系统结构进行了体视化表达,使建立的区域水文地质概念模型更加直观,在概念模型的基础上建立了相应的数学模型,并利用Visual MODFLOW对宿迁市不同开采条件下的地下水位变化进行了预测。结果表明：2009年末将出现两个较大的水位降落漏斗区。根据模型预测结果,提出了该区地下水合理开采的建议。     

腾冲热海地热田的概念模型

云南省腾冲县热海地热田是中国大陆上最大的一个地热田，根据１９７３年以来所获得的地质，地球化学和地球物理资料，有可能建立热海地热田的概念模型，热海地热田的盖岩层为厚约３００ｍ的中新统，热储层为前寒武系高黎贡山群内的低速层，埋深约１５００ｍ，热储流体为ＮａＣｌ型饱和水，温度为２３０～２７５℃热田的热源为地下６～７ｋｍ深的一个岩浆囊，它侵位于花岗岩之中，厚约２０ｋｍ，其顶部的温度约为６６７℃。     

裂隙岩体溶质运移模型综述

本文综述了裂隙岩体系统中溶质运移的概念模型和数学模型。分析了目前各种裂隙岩体系统中溶质运移的数学模型的适用性和优缺点，为选取合理的数学模型求解具体的问题提供了参考依据。最后提出了有待进一步研究的问题。     

"防止模拟失真,提高仿真性"是数值模拟的核心

提出地下水资源调查与评价的目标、基础、主线、手段和核心5个方面的基本关系;水文地质调查设计书应提出拟建的概念模型;指明当前数值模拟的核心是"防止模拟失真,提高仿真性";强调对水文地质条件的正确分析和建立模型论证的重要性。要避免对水文地质条件、地下水流动基本特征未加精细分析就提出数学模型。水文地质模拟者不应单纯地追求"拟合",只有在合理概化水文地质模型和采用正确的仿真技术的基础上才有真正意义上的拟合。模型识别是对水文地质条件的再认识。指出沿井孔滤管的进水流量和水头如何分布及用什么方法预测是当前井孔 含水系统数值模拟最基本的问题之一。列举了其中常见的、容易导致模拟失真的若干模拟要素。     

Design of Conceptual Model in Digital Map Database

The components of map information are analyzed theoretically in this paper ,and the map information includes mainly the spatial information,attributive information and temporal characteristics information.Then the digital map entity is defined according to construction characteristics of the map information.Finally,on the basis of the analyses of the construction characteristics of digital map entity and present conceptual model of digital map database,an abstracted conceptual model of digital map database is presented.And the Normal Form theory of relational database is discussed particularly.     

后城市景观中的乡愁与地方批判：基于“珠江夜游”艺术展的图像分析

景观研究是地理分析的关键单元。以往景观研究往往囿于物质景观的一面,忽视了观念景观的存在。本文以“珠江夜游——后珠三角景观”艺术展为案例,采用德国符号学家弗里克的“拟态理论”和焦点小组访谈法对其展开图像和内容分析,重新审视后城市化时代中观念景观所折射出来的乡愁与地方批判。研究发现,景观是研究人地关系议题的文化图像工具;观念景观是对物质景观的拟态,是基于真实世界之上的景观;“珠江夜游”艺术展通过大量的符号和观念景观的呈现,展现了后城市化时代珠三角地区民众独特的地方感知和地方记忆,也从直观和批判的视角展现了快速变化的社会现实下城市居民和城市之间的人地关系——城市本土居民表现出一种“不离地的乡愁”,并对人地关系失调的环境进行反思。研究对城市观念景观的图像和叙事分析是对传统文化地理学物质景观分析的有效补充,有利于从人的主体视角更深入地理解城市发展及其影响。     

Ecohydrologic separation alters interpreted hydrologic stores and fluxes in a headwater mountain catchment

Recent studies have demonstrated that compartmentalized pools of water preferentially supply either plant transpiration (poorly mobile water) or streamflow and groundwater (highly mobile water) in some catchments, a phenomenon referred to as ecohydrologic separation. The omission of processes accounting for ecohydrologic separation in standard applications of hydrological models is expected to influence estimates of water residence times and plant water availability. However, few studies have tested this expectation or investigated how ecohydrologic separation alters interpretations of stores and fluxes of water within a catchment. In this study, we compare two rainfall‐runoff models that integrate catchment‐scale representations of transport, one that incorporates ecohydrologic separation and one that does not. The models were developed for a second‐order watershed at the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest (Oregon, USA), the site where ecohydrologic separation was first observed, and calibrated against multiple years of stream discharge and chloride concentration. Model structural variations caused mixed results for differences in calibrated parameters and differences in storage between reservoirs. However, large differences in catchment storage volumes and fluxes arise when considering only mobile water. These changes influence interpreted residence times for streamflow‐generating water, demonstrating the importance of ecohydrologic separation in catchment‐scale water and solute transport.     

黄土高原大理河流域水沙耦合模型应用研究

水沙模型是定量描述水沙关系及水沙规律的重要工具,现阶段国内外对于水沙模型的研究大都为基于某个典型流域的经验统计模型或基于流域大量基础资料的物理模型,极大限制了其使用范围及模拟精度.本文建立了结构与参数均具有物理意义的流域水沙耦合物理概念模型,其优点是物理概念清楚,模拟精度高,实用性强,易于深入研究泥沙基本规律.该模型将概念性水文模型和泥沙模型耦合,提出水流挟沙能力和土壤抗侵蚀能力概念,用对数曲线近似描述流域土壤抗侵蚀能力的空间变异性,在拜格诺河道水流悬移质泥沙公式基础上建立概念性沟蚀产沙公式,参照水流汇集相似性建立泥沙汇集演算公式.选取黄河中游大理河流域4个不同流域尺度的实际流域对模型进行应用检验,模拟结果表明,该模型的水流泥沙两部分均有很高的模拟精度,可以很好地模拟黄河中游地区不同流域尺度和年际尺度上的洪水过程和泥沙产生及输移过程,充分证明了该模型结构、参数和计算方法的合理性,可用于定量分析流域内各项水保措施的减水减沙效益及水沙关系变化趋势,对该模型的推广应用可做进一步分析研究.     

A Bayesian method for missing rainfall estimation using a conceptual rainfall–runoff model

The estimation of missing rainfall data is an important problem for data analysis and modelling studies in hydrology. This paper develops a Bayesian method to address missing rainfall estimation from runoff measurements based on a pre-calibrated conceptual rainfall–runoff model. The Bayesian method assigns posterior probability of rainfall estimates proportional to the likelihood function of measured runoff flows and prior rainfall information, which is presented by uniform distributions in the absence of rainfall data. The likelihood function of measured runoff can be determined via the test of different residual error models in the calibration phase. The application of this method to a French urban catchment indicates that the proposed Bayesian method is able to assess missing rainfall and its uncertainty based only on runoff measurements, which provides an alternative to the reverse model for missing rainfall estimates.     

A Conceptual Framework for Enhancing the Utility of Rainfall Hazard Forecasts for Agriculture in Marginal Environments

Semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas (especially in the tropics) are characterized by high inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability. Agriculture, which employs the bulk of the rapidly increasing populations, is largely rain-fed, low-input based and highly resource dependent. Recent spates of drought have, therefore, exacerbated the now-too-familiar specter of famine and starvation in these areas with glaring examples being the recurring episodes in sub-Saharan Africa since the great Sahel drought of 1969–1973. A great need for accurate and timely hazard forecast products in aid of agriculture thus exists.Several schemes are currently employed by various agencies around the globe in this direction. There does remain, however, a gap between product provision and user expectations. This paper examines this gap suggesting a five-point framework within which it can be addressed as an action agenda for the climate science community. The paper posits that changes are possible to existing methodologies (related to three of these points), which, within the context of current science, can greatly enhance the utility of forecast products for agriculture in marginal areas. The remaining two points have, however, been identified as requiring additional applied research and necessary pointers for addressing these issues are provided. First is the need for appropriate impact-related indicators for intra-seasonal and interannual rainfall variability that are easy to compute, amenable to forecasting and follow closely the experiences of farmers in marginal areas. The second is a consideration of appropriate forecast information formatting and communication medium that guarantee effective feedback between forecast producers and users. Specific examples of the status quo and of work currently underway are cited from southern Africa – a region currently attracting international attention as a result of recent droughts and the threat of famine.