Effect of rainfall as a component of climate change on estuarine fish production in Queensland, Australia

The speculation that climate change may impact on sustainable fish production suggests a need to understand how these effects influence fish catch on a broad scale. With a gross annual value of A$ 2.2 billion, the fishing industry is a significant primary industry in Australia. Many commercially important fish species use estuarine habitats such as mangroves, tidal flats and seagrass beds as nurseries or breeding grounds and have lifecycles correlated to rainfall and temperature patterns. Correlation of catches of mullet (e.g. Mugil cephalus) and barramundi (Lates calcarifer) with rainfall suggests that fisheries may be sensitive to effects of climate change. This work reviews key commercial fish and crustacean species and their link to estuaries and climate parameters. A conceptual model demonstrates ecological and biophysical links of estuarine habitats that influences capture fisheries production. The difficulty involved in explaining the effect of climate change on fisheries arising from the lack of ecological knowledge may be overcome by relating climate parameters with long-term fish catch data. Catch per unit effort (CPUE), rainfall, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and catch time series for specific combinations of climate seasons and regions have been explored and surplus production models applied to Queensland's commercial fish catch data with the program CLIMPROD. Results indicate that up to 30% of Queensland's total fish catch and up to 80% of the barramundi catch variation for specific regions can be explained by rainfall often with a lagged response to rainfall events. Our approach allows an evaluation of the economic consequences of climate parameters on estuarine fisheries, thus highlighting the need to develop forecast models and manage estuaries for future climate change impact by adjusting the quota for climate change sensitive species. Different modelling approaches are discussed with respect to their forecast ability.     

Empirical tools for simulating salinity in the estuaries in Everglades National Park,Florida

Salinity in a shallow estuary is affected by upland freshwater inputs (surface runoff, stream/canal flows, groundwater), atmospheric processes (precipitation, evaporation), marine connectivity, and wind patterns. In Everglades National Park (ENP) in South Florida, the unique Everglades ecosystem exists as an interconnected system of fresh, brackish, and salt water marshes, mangroves, and open water. For this effort a coastal aquifer conceptual model of the Everglades hydrologic system was used with traditional correlation and regression hydrologic techniques to create a series of multiple linear regression (MLR) salinity models from observed hydrologic, marine, and weather data. The 37 ENP MLR salinity models cover most of the estuarine areas of ENP and produce daily salinity simulations that are capable of estimating 65–80% of the daily variability in salinity depending upon the model. The Root Mean Squared Error is typically about 2–4 salinity units, and there is little bias in the predictions. However, the absolute error of a model prediction in the nearshore embayments and the mangrove zone of Florida Bay may be relatively large for a particular daily simulation during the seasonal transitions. Comparisons show that the models group regionally by similar independent variables and salinity regimes. The MLR salinity models have approximately the same expected range of simulation accuracy and error as higher spatial resolution salinity models.     

岩浆岩冷缩裂隙形成机制、类型及成矿作用

岩浆冷缩裂隙是岩浆岩原生裂隙的重要类型。以往多学科、多角度的节理及裂隙研究不同程度地涉及到该类节理,取得了丰富的认识,但这些研究在冷缩裂隙的特点、形成机理、分类、裂隙的基本特征及其影响因素、成矿作用特点等方面系统性尚显不足,认识尚有争议。在前人研究的基础上,通过对不同机制和制约因素下岩浆冷缩裂隙的形成规律、裂隙类型,以及发育特点、裂隙（系统）规模和成矿作用特点等的探讨,分析不同裂隙类型的成矿作用特征,构建受体冷缩裂隙控制的斑岩型矿床的容矿裂隙概念模型,讨论其网状裂隙系统的裂隙特征、网状裂隙系统与斑岩的空间关系及其成矿作用和特点,较系统地归纳了岩浆冷缩裂隙的特点,丰富了斑岩型矿床的研究方法,对该类型矿床的理论研究具有一定的参考意义。     

“配料法”用于广西桂东片持续性暴雨预报

使用2000--2009年micaps资料,通过天气学原理结合统计学分类的方法,对桂东片持续性暴雨天气个例进行分型。运用概念模型分析法,建立分类型概念模型。利用“配料法”的思路,对概念模型及其物理量特征进行配料,选取环境场、水汽、抬升和不稳定为主要配料,通过对暴雨配料指标的组合判断,得出有、无暴雨的预报,依此建立桂东片...     

济南市北部地热田地热资源量计算与评价

为合理开发利用济南市北部地热田的地热资源,以新近系馆陶组和古近系东营组热储层为研究对象,根据收集的地球物理勘探、水文地质调查、钻孔数据等资料,建立了热储概念模型,计算了热储层的地热资源量和地热流体可采量,评价了地热资源的开发利用。研究表明,研究区热储类型为孔隙裂隙型热储,地热资源丰富,热储层中储存的地热资源量为2.25×1019J,地热流体可采资源量为2.05×105 m3/d。计算和评价成果可为该区地热资源的进一步开发、管理提供依据。     

通向城乡韧性的蓝绿空间整体规划研究：概念框架与实现路径（英文）

面对气候变化影响和城市化生态环境问题,城乡韧性是区域国土空间发展的新目标。蓝绿空间是一个内在紧密联系的自然、人工绿色空间和水体的网络系统,能以一种缓和接纳与适应互动的方式来消解系统内部和外部的压力,减小气候变化影响和人工建设扰动,提供多样化的复合功能。本文通过界定城乡蓝绿空间概念内涵、复合生态功能及其与城乡韧性目标价值的契合关系,构建“韧性目标—资源识别—整体布局—差异管控”的城乡蓝绿空间整体规划概念框架,提出整合与协调的多尺度蓝绿空间规划（蓝绿廊道网络构建、蓝绿开放空间规划和蓝绿基础设施布置）和基于样条分区的管控途径,旨在提升水文生态绩效与复合功能服务,从而提高城乡韧性。     

地表热通量对陕南强降水的影响

青藏高原对流云团东移常造成长江流域暴雨等灾害性天气发生,当前这类暴雨是业务预报上难点之一。开展高原云团东移特征及其演变机理研究具有重要意义,结合已有研究成果,针对高原东移云团的相关研究进行回顾和总结,包括高原东移云团引发长江流域暴雨的观测事实、东移云团的活动特征及其环流条件,凝练了高原云团东移的物理模型,最后针对地形影响对流降水发展的经典研究成果进行了简要的概述。

     

工作流理论中系统需求模型及其形式化描述

描述了系统需求元模型的概念体系,提出了系统需求元模型的内容,描述了系统需求定义与分析的流程,最后采用了一种层次描述法与Petri网描述法相结合的形式化描述方法对系统需求的结果进行描述。     

湖北省梅雨期特大暴雨的环流分析和概念模型

通过对湖北省梅雨期２７例非局地特大暴雨资料的分析，概括了天气尺度、次天气尺度系统的一般特征和作用；采用动态分析方法，归纳出两类基本环流型；结合物理量场的分析，建立了强锋区和暖涡旋两类典型特大暴雨系统的概念模型。