Development and Utilization of the World’s and China’s Bulk Mineral Resources and their Supply and Demand Situation in the Next Twenty Years

Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world’s and China’s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world’s and China’s supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources(especially iron ores and copper ores) are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserveproduction ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world’s six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015–2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4–0.7 billion tons(Gt), 5.0–6.0 million tons(Mt), 1.1–8.9 Mt, 1.0–2.0 Mt, 1.2–2.0 Mt and 4.8–5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China’s compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores(crude steel), potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores(crude steel) will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite(primary aluminum), 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China’s demand for iron ores(crude steel), bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world’s demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015–2035, China’s accumulative demand for iron ores(crude steel) will be 20.313 Gt(13.429 Gt), 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt(0.616 Gt) of bauxite(primary aluminum), 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world’s YOY(YOY) accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China’s bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary(mine) mineral products in 2015–2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper,1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of(mine) lead, 0.109 Gt of(mine) zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world’s predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000–2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China’s crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015–2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015–2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap(iron ores) is 3.27 Gt(5.08 Gt), 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China’s bulk mineral resources in 2015–2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China’s iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%,-0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly.(1) The demand peak of China’s crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015–2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak.(2) The supply-demand contradiction of China’s bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities.(3) China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of "reducing excess production capacity".(4) In accordance with the national strategic deployment of "One Belt One Road", China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly.(5) It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling.(6) China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.     

一种底座式ADCP流量自动监测探头支撑装置的研制与应用

在流量自动监测系统中,底座式ADCP设备探头位于河底,维修极为不便。该研制装置采用304不锈钢支架配合滑轮、钢索、绞盘等手摇传动系统,将底座式ADCP设备探头从河底传送到水上岸边检修台,实现对设备探头的维护、检修、更换、安装、调试等操作,再通过该装置将底座式ADCP设备探头传送到河底原位,经十里长街等站实际应用,运行稳定可靠,运用极为方便;该装置防磁、防锈、防腐性能良好,为底座式ADCP探头提供一个很好的工作环境,且结构简单,运输方便,可作为中小河流永久流量自动监测站装置使用。     

煤田资料的铀矿二次开发技术及其找矿意义——以二连盆地ZS煤田铀矿点的发现为例

在中国北方主要盆地铀矿地质调查工作中,煤田自然伽马异常作为主要矿化信息和找矿线索,为一系列铀矿床(点)的快速发现奠定了坚实基础。为进一步提高煤田资料铀矿二次开发的高效性和准确性,运用水成铀矿理论,以中国二连盆地ZS煤矿区典型铀矿点的发现为例,初步探讨了煤田资料的铀矿二次开发技术,提出了"异常筛选与选区分析、原位验证与环境判别、等时地层格架建立与沉积体系分析、综合分析与靶区定位"四位一体的煤矿区铀矿地质调查模式。这对中国北方含煤盆地铀矿地质调查工作提供了新的找矿思路和技术路线,具有较重要的指导意义。     

我国地质钻探现状和发展前景分析

我国经济社会发展已步入“新常态”。作为地质调查和矿产勘查工作重要技术支撑的地质钻探行业,资金投入显著减少,地质钻探工作量大幅下滑,常规钻探施工产能过剩;另一方面,地质钻探新的服务领域不断扩大,包括深部科学钻探,地热能及非常规能源勘查,海洋、灾害防治、生态环境、地外天体、极地方面的钻探等。如何应对地勘行业出现的问题,是全行业共同面对的挑战。在对当前及今后一段时期地质钻探工程面临的困难、挑战和机遇等进行调研分析的基础上,对我国地质钻探未来的发展前景进行了预测,认为地质钻探工作量将进一步减少,新领域、新业态的钻探工程及先进钻探技术和装备需求将进一步加大,更加贴近国家需求,更加注重环保理念。     

北方某经济开发区地下水污染调查评价

本文应用污染指数法,对北方某经济开发区及周边地下水水质进行了污染评价,结果表明研究区地下水水质以轻污染和中污染为主,局部地区出现较重污染,主要指标为硝酸盐氮、三氯甲烷和三氯乙烯。通过对工业废水、再生水、河水水质的检测,发现研究区地表水水质与污水处理厂再生水排放密切相关,地下水污染很可能与开发区企业排污有关。由于开发区所处位置的环境敏感性和脆弱性,建议今后在开发区及附近继续开展相关研究,进一步查明地下水的硝酸盐氮及有机污染物来源、污染途径,建立完善的监测体系,以便及时切断污染源,保障城市及当地供水安全。     

温度、饵料种类对中华哲水蚤(Calanus sinicus)油脂积累与生长发育的影响

中华哲水蚤(Calanus sinicus)C5期幼体的油脂积累是种群在黄海冷水团中得以顺利度夏的关键过程。本研究对温度(10°C和19°C恒温,10—19°CⅠ和10—19°CⅡ变温)与饵料种类(硅藻饵料,自然饵料)双因子培养实验进行研究,探讨温度和饵料种类对中华哲水蚤油脂积累与生长发育的影响作用。结果表明,不同的温度和饵料种类对C5期幼体的油脂积累均有影响。C5期幼体在变温组的油脂积累是10°C组的31%—102%,是19°C组的1.8—6.1倍,低温有利于C5期幼体降低个体代谢消耗以增加油脂的积累。在恒温培养下,C5期幼体在硅藻饵料组的油脂积累是自然饵料组的2.8倍,硅藻饵料比自然饵料更有利于油脂的积累。雌体的体长和油囊体积均随着温度的升高而减小。与硅藻饵料相比,在自然饵料组中雌体的性腺发育速度更快,性腺成熟度更高(繁殖指数:58%—65%)。     

东海内陆架沉积物敏感粒级构成及其地质意义

沉积物粒级包含了大量的沉积环境信息,在古环境恢复和重建中被广泛应用。基于采自东海内陆架的三根沉积物岩芯,作者利用激光粒度分析方法研究了沉积物的粒度组成,确定了敏感性粒级,探讨了搬运机制及其环境意义。研究表明:东海内陆架现代沉积物含有大致相同的三个敏感性粒级,分别是粒级1(12μm)、粒级2(12—225μm)和粒级3(225μm)。从北到南敏感粒级具有逐渐细化的趋势,该趋势与长江入海沉积物向南搬运过程中发生的沉积分异作用有关。粒级1和粒级2分别由均匀悬浮次总体和递变悬浮次总体构成,而粒级3则由生物过程产生。结合该区的海洋动力特征,作者认为,粒级2可较好地用来指示冬季海洋动力强度,并具有揭示东亚冬季风强度的潜在意义。     

Missing the boat: Critical threats to coral reefs are neglected at global scale

Coral reefs have experienced a global decline due to overfishing, pollution, and warming oceans that are becoming increasingly acidic. To help halt and reverse this decline, interventions should be aimed at those threats reef experts and managers identify as most severe. The survey included responses from 170 managers, representing organizations from 50 countries and territories, and found that respondents generally agreed on the two major threats: overfishing and coastal development. However, resource allocation did not match this consensus on major threats. In particular, while overfishing receives much attention, coastal development and its attendant pollution are largely neglected and underfunded. These results call for a re-examination of how resources are allocated in coral reef conservation, with more attention given to aligning how money is spent with what are perceived to be the primary threats.     

曹妃甸近岸及周边海区碎屑矿物组成特征及其环境意义

为探讨曹妃甸近岸及周边海区沉积物碎屑矿物组成特征以及曹妃甸大规模围填海工程对其影响,作者对2013年10月采自曹妃甸及周边海区的表层沉积物样品采用轻重矿物分离的方法进行了鉴定。结果表明:大规模围填海工程在改变曹妃甸岸线形态的同时也改变了其冲淤环境,使得碎屑矿物组分在大规模围填海前后发生一定变化。研究区的沉积物整体以轻矿物为主,平均含量为97.83%,其中曹妃甸近岸平均含量为95.57%;重矿物平均含量为2.17%,其中曹妃甸近岸平均含量为4.43%。研究区的重矿物优势矿物主要有普通角闪石、绿帘石和自生黄铁矿,其中普通角闪石所占比例在曹妃甸近岸达到最高值(36.41%);轻矿物的优势矿物主要有石英、斜长石和风化碎屑,其中石英所占比例也在曹妃甸近岸达到最高值(62.72%)。研究发现,曹妃甸近岸沉积物碎屑矿物相对含量增加而重矿物基本不变,这在一定程度上揭示了大规模人工围填海工程对曹妃甸近岸及周边海区沉积环境的影响。     

大连蜈蚣藻孢子发育及生活史的研究

在实验室条件下,对大连蜈蚣藻(Grateloupia dalianensis H.W.Wang et D.Zhao)的孢子早期发育、盘状体的形成和直立枝生长进行了详细研究,对其生活史进行了详细观察,并进行了温度和光照强度对孢子发育影响的研究。结果表明:(1)孢子发育类型为间接盘状体型;(2)生活史由雌、雄配子体、四分孢子体和果孢子体三相世代组成,配子体与孢子体形态相同,属于同型世代交替,与属模蜈蚣藻(G.filicina)一致;(3)温度对盘状体和直立枝生长均有影响,最适温度均为16℃;(4)光照强度对盘状体和直立枝生长均有影响,最适光照强度分别为7 500 lx和10 000 lx。