Probability Density Functions as Botanical-Climatological Transfer Functions for Climate Reconstruction

We present a new procedure, the pdf method (pdf=probability density function), for reconstructing Quaternary climate utilizing botanical data. The procedure includes the advantages of the indicator species method by considering the fossil and modern presence and absence of taxa rather than their frequencies, thus avoiding the need for modern analog plant communities. Overcoming the problematic use of absolute limits to describe climate response ranges is the main progress of the pdf method in comparison to the indicator species method. This advantage results from estimating probability density functions (pdfs) for monthly mean January and July temperature conditional on the present day occurrence of single taxa. Gaussian distributions sufficiently approximate pdfs of many, although not all, studied taxa. On the assumption of statistical independence, the procedure calculates a joint pdf as the product of the pdfs of the individual taxa. This algorithm weights each taxon according to the extent of its climate response range expressed by its covariance structure. We interpret the maximum of the resulting pdf as the most likely climate and its confidence interval as the uncertainty range. To avoid an artificial reduction of uncertainty arising from the use of numerous similar pdfs, a preselection method is proposed based on the Mahalanobis distance between pdfs. The pdf method was applied to the Carpinus phase of a profile from Gröbern, Germany, that spans the last interglaciation (Eemian). The reconstructed most probable January and July temperatures of about 0.0°C and 18.4°C barely differ from the modern values of −0.5°C and 18.3°C.     

在"数字国土工程"中我区地学数据库建设的现状及发展趋势

近年来,在国土资源部的高度重视下,我区相继建立了一系列地学数据库。这些地学数据库的建立不仅为地矿行业提供了基础性数据,也加速了"数字国土工程"和国土资源信息化建设的步伐。随着信息技术的高速发展,利用地理信息系统(GIS)将各类地学数据有机地结合起来,形成地学数据应用与管理系统,最终通过网络服务于社会,必将是各类地学数据发展的必然趋势。     

内蒙古宝音图岩群变质基性火山岩锆石U-Pb年龄及意义

内蒙古达茂旗宝音图岩群是在达茂旗、查干呼绍地区 1:5万区调和白云鄂博幅 1:2 5万区调过程中从过去的巴特敖包群和白云鄂博群未分岩组解体出来的中级变质岩系。通过对宝音图岩群中阳起钠长片岩、二云片岩 (原岩均为基性火山岩 )进行单颗粒锆石U -Pb法年龄测定 ,获得了两条不一致线上交点年龄 (2 486± 42 )Ma、(2 496± 2 6 )Ma ,代表了宝音图岩群基性火山岩及宝音图岩群的形成时代 ;在不一致线之外不同成因的锆石的2 0 7Pb/ 2 0 6Pb表面年龄 (2 2 2 7± 15 )Ma ,寓示着 2 2 0 0Ma左右发生了一次区域性变质热事件 ;下交点年龄 (319±486 )Ma和 (40 6± 46 )Ma ,代表了 2 5 0～ 480Ma时期该区大面积岩浆侵位及宝音图岩群后期变形变质改造的时期 ,两个年龄样的获得为研究古元古代古陆的裂解及白云鄂博海槽的形成提供了直接依据。     

山西夏县台热水井水氡异常特征与地震的关系初探

为弄清山西夏县中心地震台水氡震前异常的原因 ,对山西夏县中心地震台热水井水氡 1984年以来的观测资料用概率论的数据处理方法进行了处理 ,以负异常的发震原理进行了分析 ,结果表明震前负异常的发震概率为 70 %。     

应力释放模型的改进及其在研究台湾地区地震预测问题中的应用.

应力释放模型过去主要用于研究大范围历史大地震活动规律．本文对应力释放模型进行了改进，对其能否运用于区域更小、时段更短、震级更低的情况进行了探讨；以台湾地区近百年6级以上地震为例的研究结果表明，应力释放模型仍然适用．在回溯性的地震预测检验中，用改进的应力释放模型计算出台湾地区地震发生的条件概率强度，并用其预测6级以上地震的发震时刻．结果表明，其预测精度优于泊松模型．      

铅橡胶复合阻尼器的性能试验研究

介绍作者提出的铅橡胶复合阻尼器的构造与耗能原理，通过不同形状，不同大小铅心的8个铅橡胶复合阻尼器的循环荷载试验，研究了频率、应变幅值、循环次数、铅芯直径、竖向压力等对铅橡胶复合阻尼器的影响规律。研究结果表明，铅橡胶复合阻尼器工作性能稳定，耗能性能和抗疲劳性能好。     

国际地磁参考场在我国地磁基础研究中的应用

国际地磁参考场资料在我国得到广泛应用。利用国际地磁参考场资料，我国学者研究了高斯分析、地球磁场模型及其源场可能位置、重磁关系、核幔耦合、地磁场能量、地球非偶极子磁场西向漂移等。在绘制中国地磁等值图中也利用了某些国际地磁参考场资料。     

Application of Dangerous Probability Function in Risk Estimation of Surface Rupture Earthquake：Taking the Lingwu Fault in Ningxi1 Region as on Example

Based on the fitting on paleoearthquake data of intra-plate regions in the northern part of Chi-na and giving a statistical model of time interdependence,the potential damage earthquakes in a definite future period and characteristics of present shocks along the Lingwu fault have been analyzed by using dangerous probability function and some new data concerned.We have in-ferred that the fault has entered a period that earthquakes will probably occur.There exists a potential danger that a strong earthquake with Ms7.0-7.5 will occur in 10-100a.     

河流水质风险评价的灰色-随机风险率方法

提出了量化影响河流水质的随机不确定性与灰色不确定性的水质超标灰色－随机风险率概念，建立了水质超标灰色－随机风险率评价模型。在水质单项参数评价模型中，将河流污染物浓度变量的分布处理成灰色概率分布，将污染物浓度超过水质类别标准值的风险率处理成灰色概率，即水质超标灰色－随机风险率。在水质综合评价模型中，河流水环境系统被考虑为担任某一使用可能的可靠性系统，而任意一种水质参数超标意味着河流水体使用功能不能得到应有的保证，也即表明水体综合评价超标，最后借鉴系统可靠性分析的理论和方法计算水质综合超标率。该方法应用于黄河花园口断面重金属污染风险评价。     

Les dykes basiques du massif ancien de l'Ourika (Atlas de Marrakech,Maroc) : géochimie et significationThe basic dykes of the Ourika old massif (High Atlas of Marrakech): Geochemistry and significance

The Precambrian massif of Ourika is crosscut by two systems of basic dykes, striking N40°E and N90–120°E. Using incompatible trace elements, the two systems form two distinct chemical groups, displaying a continental tholeiitic affinity. The composition variations between the two defined groups can be due to heterogeneities of mantle sources and to contamination, during the magma ascent, by the continental crust. The emplacement of these basic dykes, before the late-PIII formations, can be related to the Neoproterozoic distension generalised to the Anti-Atlas chain. To cite this article: A. Barakat et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 827–833.