气侯时间序列变点的推断

本文研究时间序列的变点问题。所给出的统计方法可用来推断一个时间序列是否存在变点，存在几个变点以及变点在什么位置。这种统计推断方法可用于气候阶段的划分。     

变形分析的Bayes估计与检验

由于观测条件的变化，观测值方差将产生随机波动。本文根据Ｂａｙｅｓ估计理论，推导了线性模型待估参数的分布函数及观测值方差估计公式，并将其用于位移检验。计算结果表明，在同样的置信度下，本方法更符合实际。文中还对参数估值的统计性质进行了讨论。     

Performance of a base isolator with shape memory alloy bars

A new and innovative base isolation device is introduced in this paper based on extensive research carried out by the authors and their co-workers. A prototype of the device was built and experimentally tested on the shaking table. The new base isolation device consists of two disks, one vertical cylinder with an upper enlargement sustained by three horizontal cantilevers, and at least three inclined shape memory alloy (SMA) bars. The role of the SMA bars is to limit the relative motion between the base and the superstructure, to dissipate energy by their super-elastic constitutive law and to guarantee the re-centring of the device. To verify the expected performance, a prototype was built and tested under sinusoidal waves of displacement of increasing frequency with different amplitudes. It is shown that the main feature of the proposed base isolation device is that for cyclic loading, the super-elastic behavior of the alloy results in wide load-displacement loops, where a large amount of energy is dissipated.     

山西运城东郭井水温梯度测试及其结果分析

山西运城东郭观测井是山西省"十五"项目新建的地下流体物理观测井,于2007年10月12日进行数字观测正式产出资料。根据"十五"前兆台网《SZW-1A型数字式温度计(V2004)》安装条件要求,2007年12月25日对观测井进行了一次水温梯度测试,目的是了解该井井水温度背景值,确定水温观测部位,明确井筒中的热系统与含水层的关系,为下一步分析水温微动态提供参考依据。     

液化场地桥梁群桩基抗震分析简化方法

基于已完成的液化场地土—桩—桥梁结构地震相互作用振动台试验,利用两步法、等效单桩法,建立了液化场地群桩基础抗震分析的动力非线性文克尔地基梁模型。该模型考虑了桩—土相互作用的影响。首先,按照等刚度原则将群桩简化为等效单桩;其次,选用弹簧元件和阻尼原件并联的宏单元模拟桩—土动力相互作用;然后,计算地震作用下自由场地的土体位移和孔压比;最后,将地震作用下自由场地土体位移和孔压比作为模型的外部激励,计算桩的动力反应规律。将简化方法计算结果与液化场地桥梁桩基振动台试验结果进行对比发现,两者吻合较好,验证了简化方法的正确性。     

基于验后方差估计原理导出的选权迭代法剔除粗差

将抗差估计的思想融入到粗差探测的算法中,设计出对模型误差,特别是粗差具有抵抗能力的粗差探测算法.基于验后方差估计原理导出的选权迭代法即为抗差佑计的一种,首先是应用最小二乘法来计算观测值的参数x、残差V、协因数阵Qvv及单位权σ0 的初值,然后再根据残差和有关的参数,按所选择的权函数,计算每个观测值的权,经过迭代计算求得...     

Non-invasive lab test in the monitoring of vadose zone contaminated by light non-aqueous phase liquid

We discuss a strategy capable of a quantitative long-term monitoring of water saturation and volume variation of light non-aqueous phase liquids in the soil. The goal was reached monitoring a controlled sand cell contaminated with classical gasoline over 124 days, using geophysical methods such as electrical resistivity tomography, induced polarization and ground penetrating radar. We show that empirical relations, linking the water saturation to the physical parameters measured as resistivity from electrical resistivity tomography and travel time from georadar with advanced processing, are good tools for this purpose. The consistence of the proposed process is validated by both good overlap of results carried out from electrical resistivity tomography and georadar and theoretical models simulating the actual experiment.     

Comparison of ten notable meteorological drought indices on tracking the effect of drought on streamflow

ABSTRACT

Ten notable meteorological drought indices were compared on tracking the effect of drought on streamflow. A 730-month dataset of precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration for 88 catchments in Oregon, USA, representing pristine conditions, was used to compute the drought indices. These indices were correlated with the monthly streamflow datasets of the minimum, maximum and mean discharge, and the discharge monthly fluctuation; it was revealed that the 3-month Z-score drought index (Z3) has the best association with the four streamflow variables. The Mann-Kendall trend detection test applied to the latter index time series mainly highlighted a downward trend in the autumn and winter drought magnitude (DM) and an upward trend in the spring and summer DM (p = 0.05). Finally, the Pettitt test indicated an abrupt decline in the annual and autumn DM, which began in 1984 and 1986, respectively.     

A fundamental procedure and calculation formula for evaluating gravel liquefaction

Field investigations following the 2008 Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake identified 118 liquefaction sites, most of which are underlain by gravelly sediment in the Chengdu Plain and adjacent Mianyang area, in the Sichuan Province. Gravel sediment in the Sichuan province is widely distributed; hence it is necessary to develop a method for prediction and evaluation of gravel liquefaction behavior. Based on liquefaction investigation data and in-situ testing, and with reference to existing procedures for sandy soil liquefaction evaluation, a fundamental procedure for gravel liquefaction evaluation using dynamic penetration tests (DPT) is proposed along with a corresponding model and calculation formula. The procedure contains two stages, i.e., pre-determination and re-determination. Pre-determination excludes impossible liquefiable or non-liquefiable soils, and re-determination explores a DPT-based critical N120 blows calculation model. Pre-determination includes three criteria, i.e., geological age, gravel contents, gravel sediment depths and water tables. The re-determination model consists of five parameters, i.e., DPT reference values, gravel contents, gravel sediment depths, water tables and seismic intensities. A normalization method is used for DPT reference values and an optimization method is used for the gravel sediment depth coefficient and water table coefficient. The gravel liquefaction evaluation method proposed herein is simple and takes most influencing factors on gravel sediment liquefaction into account.     

粉煤灰浸出特性试验研究

利用浸出试验方法,对火电厂粉煤灰进行浸出特性的测定,对其有害特性进行鉴别并分析其浸出规律,从而为地下水受粉煤灰排水影响后的水质预测、堆灰场选址、环境影响评价提供依据.