《翁同龢日记》中的冷暖感知记录及其对气候冷暖变化的指示意义

依据清代《翁同龢日记》(以下简称《日记》)中逐日的冷暖感知记录和同时期的器测月均温资料,采用相关分析和线性回归分析等统计方法,以月为基本统计单元,对《日记》中冷暖感知记录反演气候变化的能力进行了分析。结果说明,《日记》中的冷暖感知记录可以用于气候变化研究,但是最佳代用指标因气候变化的时间尺度和季节而异。总体而言,极热、偏热、偏凉、极冷日数对年内月到季时间尺度气候变化的代表性较好,其中尤以偏凉和极冷日数最佳。对于年际尺度上的气候波动,从季节对比来看,冷暖感知日数反演夏季(6—8月份)月均温的能力最差;从冷暖感知类型对比来看,极冷日数是多个月份月均温的最佳代用指标,1、3、5、9和12月份的最佳代用指标均是极冷日数。并且,还可以依据极冷日数的多寡识别极端冷、极端热年。由此可见,古代私人日记中的冷暖感知记录可以用于反演历史时期气候的冷暖变化。     

孟加拉湾风暴造成红河州一次强降水的诊断分析

应用MICAPS常规资料结合FY-2卫星云图,通过天气分析与物理量诊断分析方法,对红河州2007年5月16～18日的持续性强降水天气过程进行了分析。这次过程主要影响天气系统为初夏孟加拉湾风暴、700 hPa切变线及地面冷锋,冷空气侵入孟加拉湾风暴外围环流导致强降水发展并持续。冷锋切变南下有利于水汽凝结量的增加及强降水天气发生发展环境的形成。孟加拉湾风暴带来的充沛水汽输送和强烈的上升运动与不稳定大气为持续强降水发生发展提供了有利条件。卫星云图上强对流云团覆盖区与红河州强降水区相对应。     

山西2006年"4·11"强寒潮天气预报服务及冻害灾情评估

2006年4月11日,山西全省出现强寒潮天气,并伴有大范围雨雪,给部分地区造成严重冻害,直接经济损失达17亿之多。前期降水少、气温高、日照充足,致使中南部冬小麦拔节期提前。冷空气势力强大,降温急剧,是导致冻害发生的直接原因。山西各级气象部门对这次强寒潮天气进行了及时准确的预报、决策服务,取得了较为明显的社会和经济效益。今后,需进一步提高重大天气过程联防、监测、预警能力,提高预报、预测水平。     

Analysis of the structure and propagation of a simulated squall line on 14 June 2009

A squall line on 14 June 2009 in the provinces of Jiangsu and Anhui was well simulated using the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) model. Based on high resolution spatial and temporal data, a detailed analysis of the structural features and propagation mechanisms of the squall line was conducted. The dynamic and thermodynamic structural characteristics and their causes were analyzed in detail. Unbalanced flows were found to play a key role in initiating gravity waves during the squall line's development. The spread and development of the gravity waves were sustained by convection in the wave-CISK process. The squall line's propagation and development mainly relied on the combined effect of gravity waves at the midlevel and cold outflow along the gust front. New cells were continuously forced by the cold pool outflow and were enhanced and lifted by the intense upward motion. At a particular phase, the new cells merged with the updraft of the gravity waves, leading to an intense updraft that strengthened the squall line.     

1929—1930年中国极端冷冬事件的重建*

气候变暖背景下,极端寒冷事件仍有发生且常伴随严重的经济、社会影响,需要更为深入的研究。1929—1930年极端冷冬事件作为增暖背景下的极端冷事件,对其研究相对缺乏。通过收集并分析民国时期的气象器测资料和报刊资料,对1929—1930年中国极端冷冬事件进行探讨。结果表明: (1)本次冷冬的空间范围包括华北地区、长江流域(重庆至入海口段)和北疆地区,西北地区可能存在冷冬;寒冷的核心时段为1929年12月到次年1月。(2)本次冷冬时空范围内的地区月平均气温极端性强,华北、长江流域的12月份均温都超过十年一遇的冷事件水平,长江流域、北疆地区的1月份均温均超过五十年一遇水平;但月最低气温的极端性较弱,大部分站点月的最低温达到五年一遇水平,部分站点月超过十年一遇水平。(3)本次冷冬至少经历了7次区域性或全国性的降温事件,其中有3次降温事件达到全国性寒潮事件标准,时段分别为12月1—5日、12月16—20日和1月1—5日;其中第1次和第3次是影响中国的典型中路寒潮路径,第2次降温过程的时空特征不显著。(4)综合本次冷冬前旱后涝气候特点、该时段内ENSO(厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)指数的变化以及前人对ENSO和中国气候变异的关系研究,推测1920s末到1930s初期的气象灾害很大程度受影响于ENSO事件。     

北半球冬季各阻塞系统对大范围极端温度异常的单独和协同影响

本文利用1979～2015年ERA-interim逐日再分析资料,对比分析了格陵兰阻高（GB）、大西洋—欧洲阻高（AEB）、乌拉尔山阻高（UB）和北太平洋阻高（NPB）四个阻高系统对年际尺度和天气尺度地面温度及极端冷日的单独和协同影响。结果表明,各阻高与地面温度之间的统计关系十分复杂,同一阻高系统可影响多个地区的温度异常,同一个地区的地面温度一般可受到多个阻高系统的不同影响。通过分离单阻高和多阻高（双阻高、三阻高和四阻高）组合的情形,本文的结果进一步表明,UB对欧亚大陆地面温度的影响最为重要,其次对于欧洲地面温度而言,依次为AEB、GB和NPB;对于亚洲地面温度而言,依次则为GB、NPB和AEB。而NPB对北美大陆温度的影响最为重要,其次为GB和AEB,UB的影响最弱。此外,多阻高协同影响地面温度时,并非线性叠加,而是表现为显著的非线性特征。     

高原寒冷区地电化学提取技术试验与找矿预测

为确定地电化学提取技术在高原寒冷区的最佳工作技术条件,选择在已有工程控制的青海尕大阪铜多金属矿7线剖面,进行地电化学提取技术的对比试验,确定一套适合高原寒冷区的地电化学提取技术。通过对比试验选定其技术指标为:提取时间48 h、供电电压9 V、提取液硝酸浓度15%、提取液用量1000 m L、提取极距1 m、提取材料为经处理过后的泡塑。采用优选的工作技术条件,在矿区东南部未知区域开展隐伏矿勘查预测,圈出了4个有利成矿靶区,指导矿区下一步找矿工作部署。     

Structural analysis and design of frost resistance function for subgrade of high-speed railway ballasted track in cold regions

According to the technical characteristics of short fixed wheelbase of a high-speed carriage, a subgrade-track integrated space mechanical response analysis model is proposed for trains under the action of biaxial load after the comparison of the stress distribution characteristics of the ballast track subgrade bed structures for high-speed railway under the action of uniaxial load and biaxial load. The loading threshold value (high-cycle long-term dynamic strength) under the circumstance where the cumulative deformation of subgrade structure gradually develops and finally reaches the convergent state, and its relationship with the foundation coefficient K₃₀ were deduced, based on the characteristics of cumulative deformation evolution obtained from the unit structure filling model test under the action of cyclic loading. In view of structure stability and frost resistance requirements of the railway subgrade in cold regions, technical conditions to maintain good service performance of subgrade structure of high-speed railway ballasted track are discussed and analyzed. Study results show that the additive effect manifests itself obviously for railway train bogies under the action of biaxial load than uniaxial load, which has a significant dynamic effect on the subgrade bed bottom and a slight effect on the surface layer. Thus, the adoption of a biaxial load model in the design of a high-speed railway subgrade accurately reflects the vehicle load. Pursuant to the structure design principle, the design method of the subgrade structure of high-speed railway ballasted track is proposed to meet the technical requirements such as structural strength, bearing stiffness and high-cyclic and long-term stability. Technical indicators are obtained for the variation of thickness of the surface layer of reinforced subgrade bed in the double-layer subgrade mode along with the change of K₃₀ at the subgrade bed bottom. The double-layer structure mode of "closure on the upper layer and drainage on the lower layer" was proposed in order to meet the waterproofing and drainage requirements of the upper layer of the subgrade bed in cold regions. A dense-framework graded gravel filler with weak water permeability at a coefficient of 10^-4 cm/s is used on the upper layer and the void-framework graded gravel filler at the water permeability coefficient of 10^-2 cm/s is adopted on the lower layer.     

南海西南部巽他陆架底层冷水及其季节变化分析

本文利用历史水文观测数据研究了南海西南部巽他陆架水团特征,结果表明:(1)巽他陆架纳土纳群岛周围底层存在着低温高盐的冷水,该冷水沿地形爬升分为两支,一支可延伸至泰国湾,另一支伸向卡里马塔海峡;(2)巽他陆架底层冷水有明显的季节变化,该底层冷水在春季开始形成,夏季达到最强,秋季开始衰退,最后在冬季完全消失;(3)巽他陆架底层冷水来源于南海次表层水的涌升。夏季西南季风使陆架表层水向南海流动,有利于南海次表层低温高盐水沿地形向陆架爬升,此时底层冷水与表层水温差超过8°C。冬季东北季风,使南海表层水向陆架流动,海水在陆架堆积,从而阻止了南海次表层低温高盐水的爬升。     

山东冬季近41年气温异常及其海气背景场特征

采用山东省 2 6个站点 1 96 1～ 2 0 0 1年的月平均气温资料 ,利用 Mann- Kendall突变检验法、线性倾向估计等方法分析了山东省冬季 (1 2月～次年 1月 )平均气温的变化特征 ,并从北半球5 0 0 h Pa位势高度距平场、冷空气活动路径及太平洋海温距平场等方面分析了冬季气温异常的原因。分析发现山东省冬季气温变化具有明显的阶段性 ,突变发生在 1 986年。存在冷冬年欧亚盛行经向环流 ,暖冬年盛行纬向环流的差异。这可能与冷空气路径不同有直接原因。