中国冬季持续性低温事件的低频特征以及中低纬大气低频振荡对其的影响

根据中国气象局提供的1979∕1980—2009∕2010的31个冬季中国553个台站的逐日日平均气温资料和中国冬季持续性低温发生的特点,提出了单站持续性低温事件和区域持续性低温事件的客观定义,并利用EOF分析、谱分析、滤波和合成分析等统计方法,描述和统计了我国冬季持续性低温事件的低频特征以及中低纬大气低频振荡在持续性低温事件发生过程中的作用。结果表明,在低纬度地区,赤道印度洋的热带对流活动通过经向垂直环流影响了持续性低温事件。另外,在中纬度地区,北太平洋中部低频反气旋的增强为低温事件的持续性做出了贡献;西伯利亚地区低频高压的加强提供了不断的冷空气;贝加尔湖-巴尔喀什湖低频横槽的加深与维持,有利于冷空气从偏西路径侵入中国。因此,中国冬季持续性低温事件是中低纬大气低频振荡共同作用的结果。      

Validation of a multidecadal RCM hindcast over East Asia

The precipitation and low-level air temperature in East Asia from a regional climate model (RCM) hindcast for the 22-year period 1979–2000 is evaluated against observational data in preparation for the model use in regional climate change research. Emphasis of the evaluation is placed on the RCM capability in capturing the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation and low-level temperature, especially in conjunction with important climatological events such as, ENSO and East Asian monsoon, at three spatial scales of continental, subcontinental, and river basins.Spatial anomaly correlation time series of geopotential height and temperature show that the simulated upper-air fields remain consistent with the driving large-scale fields, NCEP Reanalysis 2 (R2), throughout the period. The simulated seasonal shifts in 850 hPa winds also agree well with R2 over eastern China and the western Pacific Ocean although the magnitudes of the shifts are overestimated, especially over the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau and in northern Manchuria. The simulated precipitation climatology agrees reasonably with that from two analysis datasets based on station- and remote-sensing data. Outstanding characteristics of precipitation including the location of the main rainband, climatological means, and the spatiotemporal variability in association with East Asian Monsoon, ENSO, and extreme events, are well represented in the hindcast. The most notable bias in the simulated precipitation is an overestimation of winter rainfall in southwestern coast of China, near the border with Vietnam. The simulation overestimates the interannual variability of seasonal precipitation especially in southern China, however, the corresponding coefficients of variation agree reasonably with observations except in very dry regions. This suggests that climate sensitivity of scaled precipitation can be useful for projecting climate change signals. The simulated low-level temperature climatology agrees reasonably with observational data as well. The most noticeable biases in the simulated low-level temperature are the warm (cold) biases in southern Siberia (northeastern China) during winter (summer) and the systematic underestimation of low-level temperature in the Tibetan Plateau for all seasons. The daily maximum temperature is underestimated for all seasons by 2−3 K with the largest biases in spring and fall except in the northwestern Mongolia region where it has been overestimated during winter. The daily minimum temperature biases ranges from 0.3 K in spring to 2 K in winter, and are much smaller than those in daily maximum temperature. The evaluation of the multidecadal hindcast shows that model errors mostly confined in the region near the lateral boundaries of the model domain with only minor biases in eastern China. This allows us to be cautiously optimistic about the RCM usefulness for studies of precipitation and low-level temperature changes in East Asia induced by increased emissions of greenhouse gases.     

甘肃永登强对流云的雷达气候学特征分析

利用甘肃永登19年(1971—1985年,1999—2003年)的雷达回波资料,分析了强对流云回波形成及分布特征与甘肃永登地区特殊地形的关系;强对流天气大尺度天气背景和相应的强对流雷达回波的移动、高度、强度和回波谱等特征。结果表明,该区的特殊地形造成气流阻挡并使其折转汇合、垂直运动剧烈加速,使得对流云迅速发展,这是该区对流云形成和分布的决定因素;高空天气形势和对流云结构制约了对流云雷达回波的移动和基本特征。雹云回波谱表明,雹暴对流活动一般均处于旺盛状态,强回波高度和其所处的云内温度是形成雹云的重要条件。     

中国大陆1961-2010年间气候舒适期的空间格局及其演变

气候舒适期作为气候舒适度/人体舒适度评价的一种时间标尺,对建筑设计、人体健康和旅游发展等意义深远。以“月”界定气候舒适期的传统研究因时间粒度较大,不利于全球变化下区域间横向和区域内纵向的比较和解析。根据中国大陆775个基本（基准）气象站点1961-2010年间的逐日气象数据,利用温湿指数（THI）和风效指数（WEI）的组合模型策略对其“舒适”分级标准进行改进,在“天气舒适日数累加”这一以“天”为粒度的气候舒适期界定下,对中国大陆近50年来气候舒适期的空间格局及其演变开展分析。研究给出了中国大陆的年均气候舒适期数值及其季节分配,揭示了年均气候舒适期的空间格局及其季节性差异,探讨了50年来气候舒适期的空间演变及其季节性特点,为全球变化的区域响应提供一种有关人居环境建设和人类活动适应的基础认识和科学依据。     

Letter to the editor Are the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Southern Oscillation related in any time-scale?

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Southern Oscillation (SO) are compared from the standpoint of a possible common temporal scale of oscillation. To do this a cross-spectrum of the temporal series of NAO and SO indices was determined, finding a significant common oscillation of 6/8 years. To assure this finding, both series were decomposed in their main oscillations using singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Resulting reconstructed series of 6/8 years oscillation were then cross-correlated without and with pre-whitened, the latter being significant. The main conclusion is a possible relationship between a common oscillation of 6/8 years that represents about 20% of the SO variance and about 25% of the NAO variance.     

SYNOPTIC WEATHER-MAP CLASSIFICATION: CORRELATION VERSUS SUMS-OF-SQUARES*

A sums-of-squares similarity measure (S), attributed to Kirchhofer, has been characterized by a number of synoptic climatologists as superior to correlation for quantifying the similarity between two gridded weather maps. The sums-of-squares metric and product-moment correlation, however, are virtually identical so S cannot be regarded as better. It is also suggested that correlation, in any form, is not generally a satisfactory measure of the similarity between weather maps of comparable units.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: The City in Cultural Context . John Agnew, John Mercer, David Sopher, eds. Soils and Geomorphology Peter W. Birkeland. Urbanization and Settlement Systems, International Perspectives . L. S. Bourne, R. Sinclair, and K. Dziewoński. eds. An Introduction to Urban Historical Geography . Harold Carter. Overshoot, The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change . William J. Catton, Jr. Rivers of the World . Eberhard Czaya. Jewish Communities in Frontier Societies: Argentina, Australia and South Africa . Daniel J. Elazar with Peter Medding. Color in Public Spaces: Toward a Communication-Based Theory of the Urban Built Environment. Kenneth E. Foote. Spatial Statistics and Models. Gary L. Gaile and Cort J. Willmott, eds. Mega-Geomorphology. Rita Gardner and Helen Scoging, eds. Technological Change and Regional Development. Gillespie, ed. The Arid Lands: Their Use and Abuse. R. L. Heathcote. The Location of Industry in Britain. A. G. Hoare. Groundwater as a Geomorphic Agent . R. G. LaFleur, ed. Rural Public Services: International Comparisons. Richard E. Lonsdale and Gyorgy Enyedi, eds. Saving Water in a Desert City. William E. Martin, Helen M. Ingram, Nancy K. Laney, and Adrian H. Griffin. Water Resources: Distribution, Use and Management. John R. Mather. Transnationals and the Third World: The Struggle for Culture. Armand Mattelart. South Hadley, MA: USGS Digital Cartographic Data Standards. R. B. McEwen, R. E. Witmer, and B. S. Ramey, eds. The Ecosystem Concept in Anthropology. Emilio F. Moran, ed. Boulder, CO: Women, Men, and the International Division of Labor. June Nash and Maria Patricia Fernandez-Kelly, eds. Nuclear Power: Assessing and Managing Hazardous Technology. Martin J. Pasqualetti and K. David Pijawka, eds. Mary Somerville and the Cultivation of Science 1815-1840. Elizabeth Chalmers Patterson. An Introduction to Coastal Geomorphology. John Pethick. Late Quaternary Environments of the United States , Vol. 1, The Late Pleistocene. Stephen C. Porter, ed. Planning and Ecology. R. D. Roberts and T. M. Roberts, eds. Regionalism and the Pacific Northwest. William G. Robbins, Robert J. Frank, and Richard E. Ross, eds. Environment and Health. Anthony J. Rowland and Paul Cooper. Sunbelt/Snowbelt: Urban Development and Regional Restructuring. Larry Sawers and William K. Tabb, eds. The Bad Earth. Environmental Degradation in China. Vaclav Smil. Armonk, NY: Voyage into Substance: Art, Science, Nature, and the Illustrated Travel Account, 1760–1840. Barbara Maria Stafford. The Institute of British Geographers: The First Fifty Years. Robert W. Steel. Visions of the Past. Christopher Taylor and Richard Muir. Glacial Lake Agassiz. J. T. Teller and Lee Clayton, eds. The Tule Breakers: The Story of the California Dredge. John Thompson and Edward A. Dutra. The Balkan City 1400–1900. Nikolai Todorov. Explanation, Prediction and Planning: the Lowry model. Michael J. Webber. Mercedes Reales: Hispanic Land Grants of the Upper Rio Grande Region. Victor Westphall. The World Atlas of Revolutions. Andrew J. M. Wheatcroft. The West European City, A Social Geography. Paul White. Urban Elites and Mass Transportation. J. Allen Whitt. Princeton, NJ: Urban Life In Contemporary China. Martin King Whyte and William L. Parish. The Demand for Energy in the Soviet Union. David Wilson. London and Canberra: Rethinking Geographical Inquiry. J. David Wood, ed.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Redundant Spaces in Cities and Regions? Studies in Industrial Decline and Social Change . J. Anderson, S. Duncan and R. Hudson. eds. The Social Consequences and Challenges of New Agricultural Technologies . Gigi M. Berardi and Charles C. Geisler, eds. Determinants of Fertility in Developing Countries, Vol. I, Supply and Demand for Children . Rodolfo A. Bultao and Ronald D. Lee, eds. Computer Mapping: Progress in the‘80s . James R. Carter. Washington: Colonial Africa . A. J. Christopher. Geography of the Soviet Union . J. P. Cole. Chicago Mapmakers, Essays on the Rise of the City's Map Trade . Michael P. Conzen, ed. Changes in the Land: Indians, Colonists and the Ecology of New England . William Cronon. Mizner's Florida: American Resort Architecture . Donald W. Curl. Geographical Studies on the Soviet Union: Essays in Honor of Chauncy D. Harris . George Demko and Roland J. Fuchs, eds. Fluvial Hydrology . S. Lawrence Dingman. Pueblo Indian Water Rights: Struggle For a Precious Resource . Charles T. DuMars, Marilyn O'Leary and Albert E. Utton. Women in the Cities of Asia: Migration and Urban Adaptation . James T. Fawcett, Siew-Ean Khoo, and Peter C. Smith, eds. America's National Parks and Their Keepers . Ronald A. Foresta. Neighborhood Revitalization and the Postindustrial City . Dennis E. Gale. China in Canada: A Dialogue on Resources and Development . R. Louis Gentilcore, ed. China: The 80s Era . Norton Ginsburg and Bernard A. Lalor, eds. Boulder, CO: Global Resources: Challenges of Interdependence . Martin I. Glassner, ed. River Networks . Texas: A Geography . Terry G. Jordan with John L. Bean, Jr. and William M. Holmes. The American Frontier: An Archaeological Study of Settlement Pattern and Process . Kenneth E. Lewis. Water Resources, Geography and Law . Olen Paul Matthews. A Field Guide to American Houses . Virginia and Lee McAlester. Population: Patterns, Dynamics, and Prospects . James L. Newman and Gordon E. Matzke. Wood, Brick, and Stone, The North American Settlement Landscape, Vol. 1: Houses . Allen G. Noble. Historical Analysis in Geography . William Norton. The Displaced Worker and Community Response: Case Study of Portsmouth, Scioto County, Ohio . H. Milton Patton and Janet W. Patton. Disaster Management: Warning Response and Community Relocation . Ronald W. Perry and Alvin H. Muskatel. The Anthropology of Space: Explorations into the Natural Philosophy and Semantics of the Navajo . Rik Pinxten, Ingrid van Dooren, and Frank Harvey. What STYLE Is It? A Guide To American Architecture . John C. Poppeliers, S. Allen Chambers, Jr., and Nancy B. Schwartz. Appalachia: A Regional Geography—Land, People and Development . Karl Raitz and Richard Ulack. An Introduction to Urban Geography . John R. Short. Ford, A Village in the West Highlands of Scotland: A Case Study of Repopulation and Social Change in a Small Community . John B. Stephenson. Income and Jobs: USA Diagnosing the Reality . George Sternlieb and James W. Hughes. Weather and Climate of the Antarctic . W. Schwerdtfeger. History and Ecology: Studies of the Grassland, James C. Malin . Robert P. Swierenga, ed. Optimal Control of Spatial Systems . K. C. Tan and R. J. Bennett. Social Science and Revolutions . Stan Taylor. The Global Textile Industry . Brian Toyne, Jeffrey S. Arpan, David A. Ricks, Terence A. Shimp and Andy Barnett. Integrated Water Development: Water Use and Conservation Practice in Western Colorado . James L. Wescoat, Jr. Proceedings of the First International Symposium on Maps and Graphics for the Visually Handicapped . Joseph W. Wiedel, ed.     

Interannual Variability of the Annual Cycle of Temperature over Northern Africa

In this study, the imprints of two major atmospheric variability modes - ENSO and NAO - on the annual cycle of temperature over Northern Africa, a region sensitive to both modes, are investigated. Results from adjusting the annual cycle from daily data on a high resolution grid, indicate that both NAO and ENSO are able to influence significantly the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle and, consequently, that interannual trends found in amplitude and phase can be not exclusively due to greenhouse gases effects.     

A Climatology Model for Forecasting Typhoon Rainfall in Taiwan

The continuous torrential rain associated with a typhoon often caused flood, landslide or debris flow, leading to serious damages to Taiwan. Thus, a usable scheme to forecast rainfall amount during a typhoon period is highly desired. An analysis using hourly rainfall amounts taken at 371 stations during 1989–2001 showed that the topographical lifting of typhoon circulation played an important role in producing heavier rainfall. A climatology model for typhoon rainfall, which considered the topographical lifting and the variations of rain rate with radius was then developed. The model could provide hourly rainfall at any station or any river basin for a given typhoon center. The cumulative rainfall along the forecasted typhoon track was also available. The results showed that the R² value between the model estimated and the observed cumulative rainfall during the typhoon period for the Dan-Shui (DSH) and Kao-Ping (KPS) River Basins reached 0.70 and 0.81, respectively. The R² values decreased slightly to 0.69 and 0.73 if individual stations were considered. However, the values decreased significantly to 0.40 and 0.51 for 3-hourly rainfalls, indicating the strong influence of the transient features in producing the heavier rainfall. In addition, the climatology model can only provide the average conditions. The characteristics in individual typhoons should be considered when applying the model in real-time operation. For example, the model could give reasonable cumulative rainfall amount at DSH before Nakri (2002) made landfall on Taiwan, but overestimated the rainfall after Nakri made landfall and weakened with significant reduction in convection.