西太平洋暖池研究的新进展

对近几年国内外有关热带西太平洋暖池的现场观测、暖池物理机制、暖池与ENSO的关系、暖池异常变化对气候的影响等方面的最新研究进展作了回顾;同时,对目前暖池研究中存在的几个问题进行了简要的讨论。     

赤道西太平洋末次盛冰期以来的浮游有孔虫氧碳稳定同位素记录

对西太平洋暖池核心区MD01—2386柱状样最上部5m进行了高分辨率的浮游有孔虫Globigerinoides ruber和Pulleniatina obliquiloculata的氧、碳稳定同位素分析,结合AMS^14C测年,研究表明其属于末次盛冰期-全新世的沉积。赤道西太平洋海区末次盛冰期以来δ^18O值显著降低,但有几次回返事件。表层浮游有孔虫G．ruber比次表层温跃层属种P．obliquiloculata对于环境变化的响应要快,但后者变化的幅度较大。这两个种的氧、碳同位素差值反映出温跃层深度自末次盛冰期以来逐渐加深,并存在周期性的回返事件,说明西太平洋暖池晚第四纪冰期旋回存在气候不稳定性。     

气候变化对江河流量变化趋势影响研究进展

气候变化对基于自然稳定气候假定的流量变化趋势的检测和水资源评价方法提出了挑战。在流量变化趋势的检测中分离出气候变化的影响,不仅对水资源管理和水利工程设计有重要的应用价值,而且有助于了解气候变化以何种方式、在何时、何地、已经或尚未对水文循环产生影响,对改进气候模型的模拟与预测有重要的科学价值。 统计方法是检验流量变化趋势显著性的有效工具。直接用气候模型模拟和预测未来径流变化的可靠性取决于模型对当代降水模拟的可信度。多个气候模型集合分析有可能在一定程度上减少模型对降水、径流模拟的不确定性。近年发展起来的多个气候模型集合分析与统计显著性检验技术结合的方法,有可能模拟并预测出气候强迫导致大尺度径流空间分布的变化。随着气候模型尤其是陆—气耦合的区域气候模型对降水模拟的改进,可以预见径流变化的检测、归因和预测的趋同化模拟已为期不远。将温室气体外强迫导致的水文气候变化作为一个因子引入到水资源评价中,对于水资源管理经济与生态评估,以及未来的发展规划将是一件十分重要的变革。      

洪灾风险评价与区划研究进展

洪灾风险评价是洪灾风险管理的首要步骤。洪灾风险区划是在洪灾风险评价基础上的宏 观分区, 有助于更清晰的把握洪灾风险的空间格局与内在规律。文章首先对洪灾风险相关概念进 行了阐述, 试图达到理清和规范的目的。然后对洪灾风险评价常用方法和洪灾风险区划研究进行 了评述。目前主要的洪灾风险评价方法有地貌学方法、水文水力学模型与系统仿真模拟方法、基 于历史灾情数据的方法、基于水灾史料和古洪水调查的方法、遥感与GIS 方法、基于洪灾形成机 制的系统分析方法等。最后对洪灾风险评价与洪灾风险区划研究进行了小结, 并指出了未来在洪 灾风险评价与区划的数据基础、洪灾风险评价的时空尺度、洪灾风险区划的理论与方法、洪灾风 险评价与区划的技术手段等方面的可能发展前景。     

长山群岛海洋农牧化海域环境分区研究

海洋农牧化就是要在海域中,对贝、藻、鱼、虾类生物资源进行人工养殖、增殖以提高资源量。从捕天然生物资源转变成为以捕增养殖资源为主的生产方式。通过对长山群岛海域发展海洋农牧化的海域环境以及海水的理化因子等进行评价,并对该海域海水增养殖的发展状况、养殖品种及构成变化特征进行了分析,最后,应用主成份-聚类分析方法,将长山群岛海域环境划分为三个海洋农牧化区域,为因海制宜、合理布局海水增养殖生产提供科学依据。     

塔里木河流域径流变化趋势及其对气候变化的响应

This paper has studied the change of streamflow and the impact of climatic variability conditions on regional hydrological cycle in the headwater of the Tarim River Basin. This study investigates possible causes of observed trends in streamflow in an environment which is highly variable in terms of atmospheric conditions, and where snow and ice melt play an important role in the natural hydrological regime. The discharge trends of three head streams have a significant increase trend from 1957 to 2002 with the Mann-Kendall test. Complex time-frequency distributions in the streamflow regime are demonstrated especially by Morlet wavelet analysis over 40 years. The purpose is to ascertain the nature of climatic factors spatial and temporal distribution, involved the use of EOF （Empirical Orthogonal Function） to compare the dominant temperature, precipitation and evaporation patterns from normally climatic records over the Tarim＇s headwater basin. It shows that the first principal component was dominated since the 1990s for temperature and precipitation, which identifies the significant ascending trend of spatial and temporal pattern characteristics under the condition of the global warming. An exponential correlation is highlighted between surface air temperature and mean river discharge monthly, so the regional runoff increases by 10%-16% when surface air temperature rises by 1 ℃. Results suggest that headwater basins are the most vulnerable environments from the point of view of climate change, because their watershed properties promote runoff feeding by glacier and snow melt water and their fundamental vulnerability to temperature changes affects rainfall, snowfall, and glacier and ice melt.     

旅游资源非优区的园区化建设探讨——以吕梁山苍儿会旅游经济园区为例

旅游资源非优区主要是在资源质量及其开发条件等方面表现出"非优性"的特征.在区域发展中如果仍然沿用传统的旅游资源开发思路和方法,必然使区域旅游业处于市场竞争中的劣势.因此,对于该类型区域有必要探索出新的经济发展思路.从区域比较优势角度,旅游资源非优区的发展应以资源禀赋特征为基础,以旅游经济园区发展为主体,走产业多样化的道路.以吕梁山苍儿会生态旅游经济区为例,提出加快园区化建设的步伐,促进旅游经济与区域产业经济的良性互动,是避免片面强调旅游经济而抑制其它产业发展,以及促进区域可持续发展的根本战略选择.     

漳州市山体滑坡主要影响因素分析

对漳州市区域内近十几年来所发生滑坡的地质灾害点进行调查研究,提出了漳州地区山体滑坡主要受地形、地质、气象和人类工程活动因素的综合影响。一般地形坡度在25°～50°,坡型为阶梯型、人工边坡无支挡,土质边坡坡度大于70°与坡高大于4m者,连续10d内降雨量在170mm以上,且日降雨量在100mm的强降雨时,发生滑坡的概率,达71.7%。故此,降雨量170mm以上、日降雨量大于或等于100mm时,可作为漳州市地质灾害预警预报的指标。     

Relations indices de Végétation–Pluie au Burkina Faso: Cas du Bassin Versant du Nakambé/Relationship between Rainfall and Vegetation Indexes in Burkina Faso: A Case Study of the Nakambé Basin

Abstract

This work deals with the problem of the use of remote sensing data derived from NOAA/AVHRR observations for monitoring the West African Sahel climatic variability. NDVI is widely used in hydrological and climatological research, and in the study of global climatic changes. The relationships between NDVI and climatic parameters are not well established yet and are the focus of many studies. The relationships between NDVI and rainfall were studied at a 10-day time step in the Nakambe River basin in Burkina Faso in the Sahelo-Sudanian area over the years 1982–1999. Good correlations were found in the annual evolution of these two variables. The statistical analysis shows a significant relationship between NDVI and the sum of the annual rainfall with determination coefficients greater than 0.80. At the spatial scale of 0.5° × 0.5°, the determination coefficient ranges from 0.91 to 0.96. It was also found that the NDVI is a good indicator of the determination of the beginning and the end of the rainy season. It gives reasonably good results in comparison with the other methods commonly used in the study region.