中国季降水量的气候噪声和潜在可预报性估计

利用中国130个测站1961—2004年的日降水量资料,使用低频白噪声延伸法和方差分析法估计了中国季降水量的气候噪声方差和潜在可预报性。结果表明：中国季降水量的气候噪声方差由南向北、由沿海向内陆逐渐减小,且有明显的季节变化,夏季最高,其次是春秋季,冬季最小,而且内陆的季节变化比东南沿海的季节变化显著。季降水量的潜在可预报性有较大的季节和区域差异,但总体来说,全国大部分地区的季降水量是潜在可预报的。以绝对误差小于均方差0.68倍作为预测正确标准,全国大部分地区季降水量的预报正确率上限为50%-60%。     

Gemini GMOS/integral field unit spectroscopy of NGC 1569 – II. Mapping the roots of the galactic outflow

We present a set of four Gemini-North Multi-Object Spectrograph/integral field unit (IFU) observations of the central disturbed regions of the dwarf irregular starburst galaxy NGC 1569, surrounding the well-known superstar clusters A and B. This continues on directly from a companion paper, in which we describe the data reduction and analysis techniques employed and present the analysis of one of the IFU pointings. By decomposing the emission-line profiles across the IFU fields, we map out the properties of each individual component identified and identify a number of relationships and correlations that allow us to investigate in detail the state of the ionized interstellar medium (ISM). Our observations support and expand on the main findings from the analysis of the first IFU position, where we conclude that a broad (≲400 km s⁻¹) component underlying the bright nebular emission lines is produced in a turbulent mixing layer on the surface of cool gas knots, set up by the impact of the fast-flowing cluster winds. We discuss the kinematic, electron-density and excitation maps of each region in detail and compare our results to previous studies. Our analysis reveals a very complex environment with many overlapping and superimposed components, including dissolving gas knots, rapidly expanding shocked shells and embedded ionizing sources, but no evidence for organized bulk motions. We conclude that the four IFU positions presented here lie well within the starburst region where energy is injected, and, from the lack of substantial ordered gas flows, within the quasi-hydrostatic zone of the wind interior to the sonic point. The net outflow occurs at radii beyond 100–200 pc, but our data imply that mass-loading of the hot ISM is active even at the roots of the wind.     

The population of AM CVn stars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey

The AM Canum Venaticorum (AM CVn) stars are rare interacting white dwarf binaries, whose formation and evolution are still poorly known. The Sloan Digital Sky Survey provides, for the first time, a sample of six AM CVn stars (out of a total population of 18) that are sufficiently homogeneous that we can start to study the population in some detail.
We use the Sloan sample to 'calibrate' theoretical population synthesis models for the space density of AM CVn stars. We consider optimistic and pessimistic models for different theoretical formation channels, which yield predictions for the local space density that are more than two orders of magnitude apart. When calibrated with the observations, all models give a local space density  ρ₀= 1–3 × 10⁻⁶ pc⁻³  , which is lower than expected.
We discuss the implications for the formation of AM CVn stars, and conclude that at least one of the dominant formation channels (the double-degenerate channel) has to be suppressed relative to the optimistic models. In the framework of the current models this suggests that the mass transfer between white dwarfs usually cannot be stabilized. We furthermore discuss evolutionary effects that have so far not been considered in population synthesis models, but which could be of influence for the observed population. We finish by remarking that, with our lower space density, the expected number of Galactic AM CVn stars resolvable by gravitational-wave detectors like the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna ( LISA ) should be lowered from current estimates, to about 1000 for a mission duration of 1 yr.