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MICAPS4预报业务系统建设进展与未来发展

以精细化预报为标志的现代天气预报业务对高时空分辨率气象数据的应用提出了更高的需求,而传统的预报分析制作系统MICAPS3（Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis and Processing System Version 3）无法满足符合大数据特征的实时预报相关的数据应用。同时,模式预报和集合预报应用已在各专业预报领域中发挥越来越重要的作用,网格预报产品正在涵盖全部的预报业务流程,而MICAPS3无法提供便捷高效的支撑。为解决上述问题,国家气象中心启动了MICAPS4建设,一方面建立了基于大数据的气象实时预报应用技术体系,解决了气象大数据处理、存储、分析和显示效率的关键技术难题;另一方面搭建了多个满足不同复杂预报业务需求的专业化版本。MICAPS4将信息化技术与预报技术、预报业务流程紧密结合,解决了现代化预报方法的平台化集成应用与精细化预报制作的关键技术难题,基于MICAPS4基础框架的多个专业版在中央气象台和部分省级气象台进行业务化应用推广。基于CIMISS（China Integrated Meteorological Information Sharing System）-MICAPS4的海量数据存储环境,极大减轻了系统部署和本地化工作量,显著提升了数据解析及数据存储访问效率。     

Seismic velocity model of the crust and uppermost mantle around the Mirnyi kimberlite field in Siberia

We present the first detailed seismic velocity models of the crust and uppermost mantle around the Mirnyi kimberlite field in Yakutia, Siberia. We have digitized vintage seismograms that were acquired in 1981 and 1983 by use of Taiga analogue seismographs along two perpendicular seismic profiles. The 370-km long, northwest striking profile I across the kimberlite pipe was covered by 41 seismographs, which recorded seismic signals from 21 chemical shots along the line, including one off-end shot. The perpendicular, 340-km long profile II across profile I ca. 30 km to the south of the Mirnyi kimberlite field was covered by 45 seismographs, which recorded seismic signals from 22 chemical shots, including four off-end shots. Each shot involved detonation of between 1.5 and 6.0 tons of TNT, distributed in individual charges of 100–200 kg in shallow water (< 2 m deep). The data is of high quality with high signal/noise ratio to the farthest offsets. We present the results from two-dimensional ray tracing, forward modelling.Both velocity models show normal cratonic structure of the ca. 45-km-thick crust with only slight undulation of the Moho. However, relatively small seismic velocity is detected to 25-km depth in a ca. 60-km wide zone around the kimberlite pipe, surrounded by elevated velocity (> 6.3 km/s) in the upper crust. The lower crust has a relatively constant velocity of 6.8–6.9 km/s. It appears relatively unaffected by the presence of the kimberlite field. Extremely large P-wave velocity (> 8.7 km/s) of the sub-Moho mantle is interpreted along profile I, except for a 70-km wide zone with a “normal” Pn velocity of 8.1 km/s below the kimberlite. Profile II mainly shows Pn velocities of 8.0–8.2 km/s, with unusually large velocity (> 8.5 km/s) in two, ca. 100-km wide zones, at its southwestern end, one zone being close to the kimberlite field. The nature of these exceptionally large, sub-Moho mantle velocities is not yet understood. The difference in velocity in the two profile directions indicates anisotropy, but the effect of unusual rock composition, e.g. from a high concentration of garnet, cannot be excluded.     

华北地台中元古代串岭沟组页岩中的砂脉构造:17亿年前甲烷气逃逸的沉积标识?

华北地台中元古界串岭沟组暗色页岩中发育一种特殊的砂质脉状构造;层面上表现为不规则密集分布的细砂脊,垂向上由不连续薄砂层和近于直立的"肠状"砂脉体相交互组成.浅色砂脉由较纯的石英粉砂-细砂组成,含微量自生白云石、菱铁矿及微晶碳酸盐岩斑块,与黑色泥质围岩边界截然.研究表明,砂脉构造可能是在早期成岩阶段前由来自薄砂层的细-粉砂灌入甲烷缓慢逃逸通道而成,并由于压实缩短而褶皱成"肠状".薄砂层与黑色页岩形成的能量条件完全不同,可能系由风暴将海岸带或砂坝细砂带入低能环境而形成;甲烷源自沉积中埋藏的微生物席腐烂分解.围岩层面有微生物席成因微皱痕和气体逃逸形成的气泡构造,围岩中发现有细菌化石和草霉状黄铁矿.串岭沟组中密集发育的砂脉构造是目前地层中识别的最古老的甲烷排放证据,并有可能作为指示地质时期陆源碎屑沉积环境甲烷逃逸的沉积标识.大量高效温室气体进入大气圈可能是导致元古宙地球表层高温室气候和无冰川发育的重要原因.     

吉林省地体构造的基本特征

吉林省地体构造的一个显著特征是在早古生代以前，伊舒断裂两侧分属两个不同的大地构造单元，西侧的构造环境与华北大陆板块北缘相似，为受古蒙古洋作用的早生代活动陆缘，东侧为长白山一张广才岭地体添加带（也称联合地体（省内包括吉林－延边古生代增生褶皱带及辽吉台块。其中辽吉台块于新元古代到早寒纪位于赤道附的，以后沿巨型拆离面逐渐北移，于二叠纪末沿辉发河－古洞河拼贴带，与吉林一延边古生代陆缘增生褶皱带拼贴到一起。     

Analytical solution on the surge motion of tension-leg twin platform structural systems

In this study the wave induced surge motion of a twin platform of a pretension leg structural system is investigated. A set of equations along with boundary conditions are derived, and solutions are obtained analytically. The tension-legged twin platform structural system might better represent a platform system in the practical application in either idealized two-dimensional analysis or actual three-dimensional practice than a single platform system. In the analysis the coupling problem of a two-dimensional tension leg twin platform interacting with a monochromatic linear wave train in an inviscid and incompressible fluid is considered. The problem is considered as a combination of the scattering and radiation. These two boundary-value problems are first solved independently and then combined together to resolve for all unknowns. The analysis is focused on the wave induced surge motion of the twin platform and the reflection coefficient. Other than the wave-related parameters, the dimensional effect of the twin platform structure is examined and presented in numerical examples. From the analytical results, it is found that the behavior of the tension-leg twin platform is significantly influenced by dimensional factors of the platform system such as the dimension of each single platform and the spacing between two platforms. It is also realized that to simplify the analysis of a twin platform system into a single platform, it tends to underestimate the wave-induced response and then reduces the safety of the platform system.     

Activity–composition relations for the calculation of partial melting equilibria in metabasic rocks

A set of thermodynamic models is presented that, for the first time, allows partial melting equilibria to be calculated for metabasic rocks. The models consist of new activity–composition relations combined with end‐member thermodynamic properties from the Holland & Powell dataset, version 6. They allow for forward modelling in the system NaO–CaO–KO–FeO–MgO–AlO–SiO–HO–TiO–FeO. In particular, new activity–composition relations are presented for silicate melt of broadly trondhjemitic–tonalitic composition, and for augitic clinopyroxene with Si–Al mixing on the tetrahedral sites, while existing activity–composition relations for hornblende are extended to include KO and TiO. Calibration of the activity–composition relations was carried out with the aim of reproducing major experimental phase‐in/phase‐out boundaries that define the amphibolite–granulite transition, across a range of bulk compositions, at ≤13 kbar.     

基于评分最优化的模式降水预报订正算法对比

使用2013年1月1日-2016年1月7日全国气象站观测资料,应用准对称混合滑动训练期,不改变雨带预报位置和形态,基于模式降水预报订正结果的TS评分最优化及ETS评分最优化,分别设计最优TS评分订正法（OTS）和最优ETS评分订正法（OETS）确定预报日各级降水订正系数,对2014-2015年降水数值预报进行分级订正,并与频率匹配法（FM）对比。结果表明:在24 h累积降水的多个预报时效订正中,无论是对欧洲中期天气预报中心、日本气象厅、美国国家环境预报中心和中国气象局的全球模式降水预报,还是对4个模式的简单多模式平均,OTS和OETS较FM在TS评分和ETS评分等传统降水检验指标上均更优秀,其中OTS在所有时效均能提高模式降水预报质量,为三者最优。在概率空间的稳定公平误差评分方面,OTS在各时效、各单模式及多模式平均等方面优势明显。在预报员对应参考时效上,OTS在24~168 h的24 h累积降水预报中的TS评分也优于主观预报。     

总辐射表两种现场校准方法的比较

分析一次在北京上甸子区域大气本底站的总辐射表的两种校准方法的比较。结果表明:以工作级标准的CM22总辐射表所确定的各类总辐射表灵敏度系数接近以H-F腔体直接辐射表的校准结果,两者之间的差别没有超过±0.1μV·W~(-1)·m~2,辐照度值的差别基本上在±5 W·m~(-2)以内。携带和操作比较方便的CM22表用于校准大气本底站的总辐射表,测量精度达到现有BSRN站对辐射表的要求。     

荧光示踪剂的干扰实验研究

通过在室内无光照条件下开展干扰实验,探究了荧光素钠、罗丹明和荧光增白剂三种示踪剂之间的干扰规律,并应用于野外地下水二元示踪试验实例,说明了校正荧光示踪仪检测浓度(ΔC)的方法。结果表明:（1）在实验室条件下,荧光素钠的抗干扰性最强,罗丹明次之,荧光增白剂易受到干扰产生检测浓度增大的假象,这种假象服从线性变化规律;（2）当使用罗丹明作为示踪剂时,ΔC钠=0.052C罗、ΔC白=0.012C罗;当使用荧光素钠时,ΔC罗=0.507C钠、ΔC白=0.323C钠。在野外开展二元示踪试验时,建议尽量选用相互之间干扰较小的罗丹明和荧光增白剂进行组合投放,或利用本实验得到的不同示踪剂之间的干扰规律对荧光示踪仪的检测浓度进行校正。