干旱严重指数(DSI)在内蒙古地区的适用性分析

利用MODIS遥感产品计算内蒙古地区2000-2019年植被生长季的于旱严重指数(DSI),并结合气象干旱综合指数(MCI)、植被状态指数(VCI)等干旱指数和典型干旱过程,对DSI在内蒙古地区的适用性进行分析.研究表明,DSI与MCI、VCI的平均相关系数为0.509和0.839,分别通过0.05和0.01的显著性检...     

一种大范围干旱的识别方法及其应用

基于日本APHRO格点降水数据计算格点SPI序列,兼顾时空连续性,定义了一种大范围长历时干旱的识别方法。该方法以我国国土面积的10%作为大范围干旱事件影响范围的最小阈值,同时给定了干旱事件影响区域的空间连续和时间连续的判定标准,另辅以干旱烈度计算方法和干旱中心的识别方法,给出了此类干旱事件的面积、历时、烈度及干旱中心的指数定义和事件的识别过程。在此基础上,识别了我国1961—2015年以来的69次大范围干旱事件,得出这69次大范围干旱事件的平均面积指数为30.49%,平均干旱历时为8.15个月,平均干旱烈度为-4.192。利用此方法对1998—2002年发生在华北地区的持续性区域干旱事件进行再分析。结果表明,这一时期的干旱事件不仅局限于华北地区,同时也波及到东北、西北、西南和东南等地,涉及了4次大范围长历时的干旱过程。     

帕默尔旱度模式在绵阳干旱研究中的应用

本文引用帕默尔旱度模式建模思路和建模方法,对其中可能蒸散量计算方法进行修正,采用国际通用的彭曼-蒙蒂斯公式,利用绵阳1954~2007年的气象资料和部分年份的土壤湿度观测资料,建立绵阳的帕默尔旱度模式,并将实际旱情与计算的帕默尔干旱指数进行了对比验证,帕默尔旱度模式能较好地反映实际旱情。     

Application of spatial EOF and multivariate time series model for evaluating agricultural drought vulnerability in Korea

This study proposed a methodology using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and multivariate time series model for the analysis of drought both in time and space. The methodology proposed was then applied to evaluate the vulnerability of agricultural drought of major river basins in Korea. First, the three-month SPI data from 59 rain gauge stations over the Korean Peninsula were analyzed by deriving and spatially characterizing the EOFs. The shapes of major estimated EOFs were found to well reflect the observed spatial pattern of droughts. Second, the coefficient time series of estimated EOFs were then fitted by a multivariate time series model to generate the SPI data for 10,000 years, which were used to derive the annual maxima series of areal average drought severity over the Korean Peninsula. These annual maxima series were then analyzed to determine the mean drought severity for given return periods. Four typical spatial patterns of drought severity could also be selected for those return periods considered. This result shows that the southern part of the Korean Peninsula is most vulnerable to drought than the other parts. Finally, the agricultural drought vulnerability was evaluated by considering the potential water supply from dams. In an ideal case, when all the maximum dam storage was assumed to be assigned to agriculture, all river basins in Korea were found to have the potential to overcome a 30-year drought. However, under more realistic conditions considering average dam storage and water allocation priorities, most of the river basins could not overcome a 30-year drought.     

Land surface temperature as potential indicator of burn severity in forest Mediterranean ecosystems

Forest fires are one of the most important causes of environmental alteration in Mediterranean countries. Discrimination of different degrees of burn severity is critical for improving management of fire-affected areas. This paper aims to evaluate the usefulness of land surface temperature (LST) as potential indicator of burn severity. We used a large convention-dominated wildfire, which occurred on 19–21 September, 2012 in Northwestern Spain. From this area, a 1-year series of six LST images were generated from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) data using a single channel algorithm. Further, the Composite Burn Index (CBI) was measured in 111 field plots to identify the burn severity level (low, moderate, and high). Evaluation of the potential relationship between post-fire LST and ground measured CBI was performed by both correlation analysis and regression models. Correlation coefficients were higher in the immediate post-fire LST images, but decreased during the fall of 2012 and increased again with a second maximum value in summer, 2013. A linear regression model between post-fire LST and CBI allowed us to represent spatially predicted CBI (R-squared_adj > 85%). After performing an analysis of variance (ANOVA) between post-fire LST and CBI, a Fisher's least significant difference test determined that two burn severity levels (low-moderate and high) could be statistically distinguished. The identification of such burn severity levels is sufficient and useful to forest managers. We conclude that summer post-fire LST from moderate resolution satellite data may be considered as a valuable indicator of burn severity for large fires in Mediterranean forest ecosytems.     

Relative suitability of indices derived from Landsat ETM+ and SPOT 5 for detecting fire severity in sagebrush steppe

Remote sensing indices of burn area and fire severity have been developed and tested for forest ecosystems, but not sparsely vegetated, desert shrub-steppe in which large wildfires are a common occurrence and a major issue for land management. We compared the performance of remote sensing indices for detecting burn area and fire severity with extensive ground-based cover assessments made before and after the prescribed burning of a 3 km² shrub-steppe area. The remote sensing indices were based on either Landsat 7 ETM+ or SPOT 5 data, using either single or multiple dates of imagery. The indices delineating burned versus unburned areas had better overall, User, and Producer's accuracies than indices delineating levels of fire severity. The Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) calculated from SPOT had the greatest overall accuracy (100%) in delineating burned versus unburned areas. The relative differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (RdNBR) using Landsat ETM+ provided the highest accuracies (73% overall accuracy) for delineating fire severity. Though SPOT's spatial resolution likely conferred advantages for determining burn boundaries, the higher spectral resolution (particularly band 7, 2.21 μm) of Landsat ETM+ may be necessary for detecting differences in fire severity in sparsely vegetated shrub-steppe.     

SENTINEL-2A red-edge spectral indices suitability for discriminating burn severity

Fires are a problematic and recurrent issue in Mediterranean ecosystems. Accurate discrimination between burn severity levels is essential for the rehabilitation planning of burned areas. Sentinel-2A MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) record data in three red-edge wavelengths, spectral domain especially useful on agriculture and vegetation applications. Our objective is to find out whether Sentinel-2A MSI red-edge wavelengths are suitable for burn severity discrimination. As study area, we used the 2015 Sierra Gata wildfire (Spain) that burned approximately 80 km². A Copernicus Emergency Management Service (EMS)-grading map with four burn severity levels was considered as reference truth. Cox and Snell, Nagelkerke and McFadde pseudo-R² statistics obtained by Multinomial Logistic Regression showed the superiority of red-edge spectral indices (particularly, Modified Simple Ratio Red-edge, Chlorophyll Index Red-edge, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Red-edge) over conventional spectral indices. Fisher's Least Significant Difference test confirmed that Sentinel-2A MSI red-edge spectral indices are adequate to discriminate four burn severity levels.     

Effects of prescribed burnings on soil hydrological parameters

Prescribed burning is a forest management tool to reduce forest fire hazards. It is largely applied in the USA and is gaining importance worldwide, particularly in Europe. However, its effects on soils still have to be better understood. This study analyses the effects of two types of prescribed burnings (i.e. low and high burn severities of up to 200 °C and at or above 400 °C) on soil hydrophobicity, infiltration, and water storage capacity of top soils. Prescribed burnings were performed on four different plots in southern and western Catalonia, Spain. Soil samples were collected before and after burning to assess water repellency with the water drop penetration time (WDPT). Three rainfall simulations before burning and three after burning were executed on areas of 1 m², and soil water contents at four to five depths were measured every 4 min during and after rainfall simulations using time domain reflectometry equipment (TDR). Following burning at both severities, water storage capacity of the top soil decreased between 1·7 and 5·4%vol on all four plots. No significant changes in volume flux density and velocity of the wetting fronts were discernible. Water drop penetration times increased moderately at the soil surface of the plots that were exposed to the high burn severity, and decreased slightly when burn severity was low. On two of the four plots the presence of partially moist organic litter prevented the underlying soil from excessive heating. Changes in hydrophobicity and water storage capacity of the top soil did not affect infiltration. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using hyperspectral imagery to predict post-wildfire soil water repellency

A principal task of evaluating large wildfires is to assess fire's effect on the soil in order to predict the potential watershed response. Two types of soil water repellency tests, the water drop penetration time (WDPT) test and the mini-disk infiltrometer (MDI) test, were performed after the Hayman Fire in Colorado, in the summer of 2002 to assess the infiltration potential of the soil. Remotely sensed hyperspectral imagery was also collected to map post-wildfire ground cover and soil condition. Detailed ground cover measurements were collected to validate the remotely sensed imagery and to examine the relationship between ground cover and soil water repellency. Percent ash cover measured on the ground was significantly correlated to WDPT (r = 0.42; p-value < 0.0001), and the MDI test (r = − 0.37; p-value < 0.0001). A Mixture Tuned Matched Filter (MTMF) spectral unmixing algorithm was applied to the hyperspectral imagery, which produced fractional cover maps of ash, soil, and scorched and green vegetation. The remotely sensed ash image had significant correlations to the water repellency tests, WDPT (r = 0.24; p-value = 0.001), and the MDI test (r = − 0.21; p-value = 0.005). An iterative threshold analysis was also applied to the ash and water repellency data to evaluate the relationship at increasingly higher levels of ash cover. Regression analysis between the means of grouped data: MDI time vs. ash cover data (R² =0.75) and vs. Ash MTMF scores (R² = 0.63) yielded significantly stronger relationships. From these results we found on-the-ground ash cover greater than 49% and remotely sensed ash cover greater than 33% to be indicative of strongly water repellent soils. Combining these results with geostatistical analyses indicated a spatial autocorrelation range of 15 to 40 m. Image pixels with high ash cover (> 33%), including pixels within 15 m of these pixel patches, were used to create a likelihood map of soil water repellency. This map is a good indicator of areas where soil experienced severe fire effects—areas that likely have strong water repellent soil conditions and higher potential for post-fire erosion.     

An analysis of non-normal Markovian extremal droughts

In many arid and semi-arid environments of the world, years of extended droughts are not uncommon. The occurrence of a drought can be reflected by the deficiency of the rainfall or stream flow sequences below the long-term mean value, which is generally taken as the truncation level for the identification of the droughts. The commonly available statistics for the above processes are mean, coefficient of variation and the lag-one serial correlation coefficient, and at times some indication of the probability distribution function (pdf) of the sequences. The important elements of a drought phenomenon are the longest duration and the largest severity for a desired return period, which form a basis for designing facilities to meet exigencies arising as a result of droughts. The sequences of drought variable, such as annual rainfall or stream flow, may follow normal, log-normal or gamma distributions, and may evolve in a Markovian fashion and are bound to influence extremal values of the duration and severity. The effect of the aforesaid statistical parameters on the extremal drought durations and severity have been analysed in the present paper. A formula in terms of the extremal severity and the return period ‘T’ in years has been suggested in parallel to the flood frequency formula, commonly cited in the hydrological texts. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.