Evolution of neotectonic activity of East Anatolian Fault System (EAFS) in Bingöl pull-apart basin,based on fractal dimension and morphometric indices

This study is an attempt of a semi-automatic geomorphological GIS analysis based on morphometric indices. In the study, 10-m-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) are used to assess the neotectonic signals regarding the recent topographic developments and to attach additional significance to active tectonics in the Bingöl basin area. The methodology incorporates the determination of the structural similarities of the faults in the basins using fractal concepts and the application of four morphometric indices (Stream Power Index (SP), Multi-resolution Index of Valley Bottom Flatness (MRVBF), Terrain Ruggedness Index (TRI) and Valley Width-to-Height Ratio (Vf)). In order to detect the deviation from spatial randomness of the applied indices, the weighted correlation coefficient Moran’s I is used and the results are interpreted at a confidence interval of 99%. The spatial distribution of integrated index values is evaluated with the tectonically active fault zones in order to determine the probable activity and the structural deformation in the basin.The applied methodology reveals that the fractal analysis of the fault lines and the spatial analysis of the morphometric indices proved to be effective tools in analyzing the tectonic influence of the fault system on the basin area. Within the basin area, a relatively lesser degree of tectonic activity is observed, in contrast with the high tectonic activity outside the basin.     

Pricing Weather Derivatives Index based on Temperature: The Case of Bahir Dar,Ethiopia

In this paper we present a stochastic model for daily average temperature to calculate the temperature indices upon which temperature-based derivatives are written. We propose a seasonal mean and volatility model that describes the daily average temperature behavior using the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We also use higher order continuous-time autoregressive process with lag 3 for modeling the time evolution of the temperatures after removing trend and seasonality. Our model is fitted to 11 years of data recorded, in the period 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2015, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, obtained from Ethiopia National Meteorological Services Agency. The analytical approximation formulas are used to price heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) futures. The suggested model is analytically tractable for derivation of explicit prices for CDD and HDD futures and option. The price of the CDD future is calculated, using analytical approximation formulas. Numerical examples are presented to indicate the accuracy of the method. The results show that our model performs better to predict CDD indices.     

淮河流域夏季降水异常与若干气候因子的关系

基于旋转经验正交函数分解 (REOF) 方法探讨淮河流域1961—2010年夏季降水与厄尔尼诺/南方涛动 (ENSO)、北大西洋涛动 (NAO)、印度洋偶极子 (IOD)、太平洋年代际振荡 (PDO) 之间的关系,并进一步分析各气候因子不同位相单独以及联合对淮河流域夏季降水的影响。结果表明:淮河流域夏季降水与ENSO,PDO,NAO,IOD等气候因子具有较稳定的相关性,其中,PDO和IOD是影响淮河流域夏季降水的关键因子,且PDO与夏季降水呈显著负相关关系;各气候因子的冷暖位相单独及联合对淮河流域夏季降水的影响不同,PDO的冷期以及NAO,IOD冷位相使流域北部的夏季降水量呈显著增加趋势,PDO分别联合ENSO,NAO和IOD的冷、暖位相对流域北部地区和淮河上游地区的夏季降水影响显著。     

规则波在缓坡上变形与破碎数值分析

通过在二维数值水槽内用边界元法直接求解Laplace方程,对规则波在缓坡上的变形及破碎进行了数值计算。分析了不同底坡及采用不同底摩阻系数时规则波的破碎特征,并对规则波破碎的极限坡度进行了研究。重点分析了规则波破碎时海底坡度、底摩阻系数及波形不对称性对破碎指标的影响。     

海陆气候事件关联规则挖掘方法

近年来,异常气候事件的频发对人类的生活环境和经济发展带来严重负影响。气象学家研究表明：海洋气候异常对陆地气候异常事件的发生具有重要的诱发作用,因此,对海陆气候间的内在关联机制进行深入挖掘具有重要研究价值。本文提出了一种关联规则挖掘方法,以探索单一海洋气候指数与陆地异常气候事件间存在的关联。首先,针对陆地气候要素,采用顾及空间邻近关系的层次聚类方法进行有效气候分区,通过对各层分区结果进行相关统计分析得到有效的各区域气候序列;然后,进行顾及多重约束进行时序关联规则挖掘,以探索海陆气候要素间的关联机制;最后,通过实际算例分析得到的各气候指数与我国陆地区域异常降水事件间的关联机制结果,与实际情况高度吻合。     

Drought monitoring

Drought detection, monitoring and indices are closely related to its definition. The specific definition chosen for a particular drought analysis will affect the procedures one uses in drought detection and monitoring. The traditional Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) has been proven to be ineffective in regions of predominantly irrigated agriculture.The recently developed ALERT (Automated Local Evaluation in Real Time) system is proposed for use in monitoring the spatial and temporal variations of drought in real time. The ALERT system uses standardized instruments, radio frequencies, software and hardware. It was originally developed as a flash flood waming system by local flood control districts and the National Weather Service. However, now it has expanded to over 100 other uses in the areas of natural and man-made disaster detection and warning. The successful ALERT system indicates the need for the continued development of a national drought monitoring index that is applicable to a wide range of climate, hydrologic and water resource environments.     

资料均一化对沈阳站气温趋势和城市化偏差分析的影响

利用国家气象信息中心2013年发布的逐日均一化气温资料,对沈阳站资料均一化处理前后平均气温和极端气温指数序列的线性趋势及其城市化影响偏差进行了比较评价。结果表明:1)资料均一化处理对日最高气温及其衍生的极端气温指数序列趋势估计的影响较弱,但对日最低气温及其衍生的极端气温指数序列趋势估计具有显著影响。2)经资料均一化处理后,平均气温序列中的城市化影响偏差有所增大,平均最低气温序列中的城市化影响偏差增大尤其明显;与冷事件有关的极端气温指数序列的城市化影响偏差数值有所减小,与暖事件有关的极端气温指数序列的城市化影响偏差数值有所增加。3)资料均一化处理有效纠正了因迁站等原因造成的地面气温观测记录中的非均一性,但却在很大程度上还原了城市站地面气温观测记录中的城市化影响偏差。     

1991、1998和2016年三个大水年长江中下游夏季降水季节内特征的对比

针对长江中下游三个大水年1991、1998和2016年,利用NCEP/NCAR大气环流再分析资料和CMAP降水资料,对比了夏季降水的季节内特征,分析了引起降水季节内变化的大气环流季节内振荡ISO演变及源地。小波分析表明,三年季节内降水周期差异明显,分别为20～30 d、20～40 d和10～20 d。随之,以东亚季风区季节内振荡指数及热带外Rossby波活动通量,诊断了引起三年季节内活动异常的热带和中纬度ISO变率特点。结果显示影响三年季节内降水的ISO差异较大。1991年受到来自印度洋10～30 d和中纬度高层Rossby波10～30 d的ISO共同影响,造成周期为20～30 d的低频降水;1998年ISO来源路径单一,受中北太平洋30～60 d和10～30 d的ISO西传叠加作用,降水表现为20～40 d的振荡;引起2016年季节内降水异常的ISO源地较多,既有来自印度洋向东北传播30～60 d的ISO,又有来自太平洋向西北传播10～30 d的ISO,还有来自热带外10～30 d的ISO,三者在长江中下游汇合,引起降水10～20 d的振荡。研究结果对认识长江中下游夏季集中降水的形成...     

A high-resolution reconstruction of Storglaciären mass balance back to 1780/81 using tree-ring data and circulation indices

Storglaciären in northernmost Sweden has the world's longest ongoing continuous mass-balance record, starting in 1946. To extend this mass-balance record, we have reconstructed summer (b_S) and winter (b_W) mass balances separately back to the mass balance year 1780/81 with annual resolution. We used tree-ring data for b_S and a set of circulation indices, based on the sea-level pressure, for b_W. Both proxies have correlation coefficients with respective mass balance components of ca. 0.7. The reconstructed net balance (b_N) of Storglaciären was well correlated to the observations during 1946-1980 (r = 0.8, p < 0.05). Our reconstruction agrees well with previously obtained results of northern Sweden glacier variability, where the predominantly positive b_N years between 1890 and 1910 correspond to the well documented post-Little Ice Age advance of Storglaciären. Furthermore, the results suggest that b_S, as a function of summer temperatures, is more important than b_W in determining the b_N, which is contrary to glaciers in the maritime parts of western Scandinavia. In general, b_N has been negative over the last 220 yr, suggesting a predomination of continental conditions over northern Sweden. However, the influence of b_W increased in the late twentieth century, indicating a shift to a more oceanic climate regime.