关于网络用户经济效益评测模型的研究

着重讨论了网络用户经济效益的内涵以及用户的投入量和产出量，并提出了评价网络用户经济效益的指标体系，包括成本降低率，成本利润增长率、产品开发时间约率、市场占有增长率等系列指标。     

Response of the barrier island coastal region of southwestern Nigeria to climate and non-climate forcing

Despite threats emanating from the influence of climate and non-climate forcing on the barrier island coastal region of southwestern Nigeria, the extent of the coastal erosion is poorly understood. We report evidence of coastal erosion and sediment accumulation in the region over a 34-year period (1973–2017), using Landsat imagery at intervals of approximately six years. Landsat image corrections and various water-extraction algorithms were used to systematically delineate coastal erosion and accumulation in the area. The region was subdivided into western and eastern subregions separated by Lagos Harbour. In the west, erosion took place during the periods 1973–1979, 1979–1984, 1990–1999 and 2005–2011, whereas in the east, erosion occurred during 1973–1979, 1990–1999 and 1999–2005. Coastal sediment accumulation occurred in the east during 1979–1984, 1984–1990, 2005–2011 and 2011–2017, whereas gains in the west occurred during 1984–1990, 1999–2005 and 2011–2017. The study revealed substantial net erosion of 1 228.1 ha in the region as a whole, over the full period. Sediment accumulation accompanying the coastal erosion appears to be linked to longshore drift. Erosion between 1973 and 2011 was probably attributable to climate change (storms and tidal conditions), longshore drift, the inflow and outflow of water at Lagos Harbour, coastal morphology and, possibly, human impacts. However, the coastal changes between 2011 and 2017 were more obviously associated with human activities, such as development of the Eko Atlantic construction project. Coastal surveillance, together with the use of environmentally sensitive protective measures, could possibly help to reduce coastal erosion in the region. Careful coastal management practices, including artificial nourishing and the installation of resilient structures (e.g. seawalls), should be undertaken to protect human settlements that are already at risk from sea-level rise.     

A Functional Analysis of the Benthic Macrofauna of the São Sebastião Channel (Southeastern Brazil)

Abstract.  The major problem in coastal areas of developing countries is disturbance caused by anthropogenic influence. This disturbance can be quantified by analysing the distribution and composition of marine communities using uni- and multivariate techniques and the biotic index. A study of benthic macrofauna was carried out along the São Sebastião Channel, northern coast of São Paulo State, Brazil, in an area with a submarine outfall, a petroleum terminal and a commercial harbour. Sampling was undertaken seasonally, by means of a van Veen grab (0.1 m²) at 15 oceanographic stations, from November 1993 to August 1994. A total of 392 species were identified (129 Polychaeta, 127 Mollusca, 98 Crustacea, 28 Echinodermata and 10 other phyla). The sedimentary pattern recorded for the São Sebastião Channel is very heterogeneous, influenced mainly by strong wind-driven currents, and differs from nearby shelf areas. The study area could be divided into three regions based on sediment texture and fauna: one region dominated by medium and coarse sand with low values of organic carbon; a second area where pelitic fractions were dominant with high values of organic carbon and nitrogen; and a third region characterised by fine and very fine sand, presenting intermediate organic carbon values. No temporal significant variation in abundance and species composition was found, except in autumn. The use of the 'marine Biotic Coefficient' showed the same ecological trend as the faunal abundance and demonstrated that the central continental region of the channel is affected by human activities.     

Coastal geomorphic evolution at the Denglou Cape, the Leizhou Peninsula

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A model for the Am (Km) planetary geomagnetic activity index and application to prediction

We studied the existence of dynamical stochastic relations in the evolution of the am index. A first analysis of the autocorrelation functions showed evidence of several seasonalities. We first used linear (ARMA) models, and it was found that these do not account for the whole internal dynamics of the data series. We then used various non-linear models to provide a better fit to reality. The forecast performances of the non-linear models are not significantly different from those of the linear model. We give a tentative explanation for the failure of the non-linear predictions. Finally, ARCH models were used in order to take into account the fact that the confidence interval for the predicted value depends on past observations.     

地史转折期的生态系

生态系的演变是地球各圈层系统耦合关系变化的直接标志。地史转折期的生态系具有复杂的生物内涵，在绝灭—残存—复苏过程中，各生物类别的演替遵循着一定的生存型式。大绝灭后生态系复苏的原动力是绝灭后迁入避难所的复活类型和大绝灭末期高压环境中产生的祖先类型的新生和辐射发展。全面了解绝灭后生态系的组成和结构，对于正确认识地史转折期，即圈层耦合结点处的地质作用型式和过程具有重要作用。     

塔里木河荒漠植被光谱可分性模拟

以塔里木河典型植被为研究对象,分析胡杨、芦苇叶片及柽柳冠层的可分性,并计算背景的影响。首先用ASD光谱仪测新鲜叶片光谱,找出光谱特征点;然后模拟EO-1高光谱数据和TM多光谱数据;最后植被与土壤光谱按比例混合,分析背景的影响。以上三步分别计算植被指数（VI）。结果显示:叶片光谱特征位置430 nm、670 nm、750 nm附近,黄边斜率和红外平台平均高度,1 080~1 280 nm、1 430~1 650 nm能够区分塔里木河流域3个主要植被类型。模拟的EO-1波谱保持了控制波形的10个特征,TM 只有绿反射峰和红吸收谷、近红外1个反射峰3个特征,大部分特征都消失了。植被指数显示(R680-R500)/R750、(R680-R550)/R705、R1430+\:+R1650、D712/D688能够区分3类,且指数值差异较大,为绿峰、红谷和近红外波峰的组合;模拟的EO-1数据(R680-R500)/R750、(R680-R550)/R705、R1430+\:+R1650能分别区分植被,TM多波谱数据不能有效区分植被。     

牙形石微量元素对生物绝灭事件的响应: 以二叠-三叠系全球层型剖面第一幕绝灭事件为例

首次系统地利用浙江长兴煤山剖面牙形石化石, 依托中国地质大学(武汉) 地质过程与矿产资源国家重点实验室激光剥蚀等离子体质谱仪(LA-ICP-MS) 获取牙形石微区原位元素含量信息.结果显示, 牙形石的Ce异常和稀土总量出现快速的波动, 它们均反映出P/T之交环境(氧化-还原、生态条件等) 的不稳定性.这些微量元素特征可以很好地与古海洋环境和生物绝灭事件耦合.这一研究将为系统探索全球古生代末生物大灭绝及其后生物复苏的过程、时限与古海洋化学及古生态变化性质等问题的研究提供新的途径, 并有望对这些重要科学问题提供有效的制约.      

基于偏最小二乘回归的冬季北太平洋风暴轴指数的特征诊断

针对现有风暴轴指数分析大多采用相关分析等较为简单方法,难以对风暴轴指数变化有效诊断分析的问题,引入偏最小二乘回归(Partial Least Square Regression,PLS)的线性方法和核偏最小二乘回归方法(Kernel Partial Least Square Regression,KPLS),对冬季北太平洋风暴轴指数变化进行了特征诊断研究,并与传统的线性无偏最小二乘回归结果进行了试验比对。结果表明:偏最小二乘回归方法的诊断结果能够更好地反映风暴轴内部变化规律,并有效降低诊断误差。对于PNYI(北太平洋风暴轴纬度指数),采用r0. 2的因子筛选方案(r为因子与风暴轴指数的相关系数)并应用KPLS算法时,预测效果最佳;对于PNXI(北太平洋风暴轴经度指数)和PNII(北太平洋风暴轴强度指数),采用全因子方案并应用KPLS算法时,预测效果最佳。