川东南地区志留系龙马溪组页岩气有利区评价优选

通过对川东南地区志留系龙马溪组页岩有机质丰度、热成熟度、有机质类型、脆性矿物含量、页岩层厚度、埋藏深度、构造形态等七大地质因素的综合分析,认定该区分布广泛的页岩有机质含量较高,有机质类型较好,热演化程度高,生烃潜力大,具备形成页岩气藏的气源条件。页岩厚度较大,埋深较浅,脆性矿物含量较大,页岩气的保存条件良好,有利于页岩气的压裂与开采。     

基于逆推法和德尔菲法的地质灾害气象服务效益评估

地质灾害气象服务发挥越来越重要的作用,既有可量化的经济效益,也有不可忽视难以量化的、潜在的社会效益和生态效益。根据历年地质灾害调查与分析数据,运用逆推法结合德尔菲法,建立地质灾害气象服务效益评估模型,并根据已有研究及防汛经验对模型的系数进行量化。模型以地质灾害气象预报评分和灾害直接经济损失为输入,以防灾减灾效益值、防灾减灾效益百分率、气象服务直接经济效益、气象服务直接经济效益百分率为输出,可同时对各区域、各时间段的地质灾害过程进行气象服务效益分段评估,也可评估年度地质灾害气象服务效益。该模型在2017年地质灾害气象效益评估中表现良好,有一定指导意义。     

南京市农业资源开发效益的评估

根据南京市农业资源开发的有关资料，参照已有的研究成果，拟定了农业资源开发效益评估的指标体系，确定其仅重分配，分别对农业资源开发后的经济效益，生态效益，社会效益及综合效益进行了评估。所得结果，为南京市农业资源的进一步开发利用提供了依据。     

三峡水库运行后长江中游洪、枯水位变化特征

流域大型水库蓄水后,坝下游河道调整过程中的洪、枯水位变化,对下游水安全、水生态和水资源利用影响甚大.利用1955-2012年长江中游各水文站水位、流量等资料,采用改进的时间序列分析方法,对三峡水库运行前后长江中游洪、枯水位变化特征进行了研究,结果表明:三峡水库蓄水前长江中游洪、枯水位变化的周期长度分别为9~14、11~15 a,在假设三峡水库运行后水位无趋势性变化的前提下,估算得到的水位变化周期长度基本在20 a以上,蓄水前的自然周期性已被打破,枯水位发生趋势性下降且无复归迹象,而洪水位波动周期虽有所延长,但上升幅度未超过历史波动变幅,仅可确定洪水位没有明显的下降趋势.三峡水库蓄水后坝下游长距离冲刷,枯水河槽冲刷量占平滩河槽的比例逐年增加,累计至2013年已达91.5%,是枯水位下降的主控因素.河槽冲刷导致的床沙粗化增加了河道床面阻力,高程在平滩水位附近的滩体上覆盖的大量植被增加了水流流动阻力,同时大量航道整治、护岸、码头等工程主体部分布设在枯水位以上,综合因素作用使得洪水河槽阻力增加.三峡水库蓄水后,虽然枯水期流量补偿作用显著削弱了枯水位下降的效应,但枯水位下降事实已经形成,不利于航道水深的提高及通江湖泊枯水期的水量存蓄,洪水位未明显下降,同级流量下的江湖槽蓄量不会明显调整.     

Relationship of Stakeholders in Protected Areas and Tourism Ecological Compensation: A Case Study of Sanya Coral Reef National Nature Reserve in China

The first step to defining the rights, responsibilities and interests of stakeholders and constructing a compensation mechanism is to identify the stakeholders and clarify their mutual relationships. Nature reserves are complex ecosystems involving nature, the economy and society. There exists a conflict between the public welfare benefits of ecological conservation and the private gains to be realized from social and economic development. There also exist in a nature reserve complex relationships among stakeholders, involving the utilization of ecological resources, ecological conservation and ecological-economic interests. The introduction of tourism brings substantial changes to the existing stakeholder benefit structure in a nature reserve. The implementation of tourism ecological compensation (tourism payment for ecological service) is a process for redefining the distribution of rights, responsibilities and profits among stakeholders and it is also an essential way to balance the interests of the stakeholders. This paper uses a case study of Sanya Coral Reef National Nature Reserve in China to examine the characteristics of stakeholders and analyze their interests. According to the method for defining basic attributes proposed by Mitchel and other scholars, in cases of tourism ecological compensation, stakeholders can be classified as definitive stakeholders, expectant stakeholders and latent stakeholders. This paper applies these classifications and then analyzes the relationships between the rights and responsibilities of these stakeholders and how these change after the implementation of compensation. Additionally, based on the impact compensation has on different stakeholders, changes in the relationships can be analyzed and the structure of the stakeholders can be modelled. This case study of the Sanya Coral Reef National Nature Reserve illustrates the operationalization of a new mechanism for tourism ecological compensation. The paper illustrates a method for coordinating the relationships among the stakeholders involved with this national-level nature reserve.     

Additional Samples: Where They Should Be Located

Information for mine planning requires to be close spaced, if compared to the grid used for exploration and resource assessment. The additional samples collected during quasimining usually are located in the same pattern of the original diamond drillholes net but closer spaced. This procedure is not the best in mathematical sense for selecting a location. The impact of an additional information to reduce the uncertainty about the parameter been modeled is not the same everywhere within the deposit. Some locations are more sensitive in reducing the local and global uncertainty than others. This study introduces a methodology to select additional sample locations based on stochastic simulation. The procedure takes into account data variability and their spatial location. Multiple equally probable models representing a geological attribute are generated via geostatistical simulation. These models share basically the same histogram and the same variogram obtained from the original data set. At each block belonging to the model a value is obtained from the n simulations and their combination allows one to access local variability. Variability is measured using an uncertainty index proposed. This index was used to map zones of high variability. A value extracted from a given simulation is added to the original data set from a zone identified as erratic in the previous maps. The process of adding samples and simulation is repeated and the benefit of the additional sample is evaluated. The benefit in terms of uncertainty reduction is measure locally and globally. The procedure showed to be robust and theoretically sound, mapping zones where the additional information is most beneficial. A case study in a coal mine using coal seam thickness illustrates the method.     

提高南四湖综合治理工程的投资效益

南四湖治理的中心任务是降低洪水位,在尽快续建两项主要工程—扩大韩庄运河和扩大湖腰—的前提下,湖内清障是保证洪水畅泄、降低水位、缩短滞洪时间,减少洪灾损失的重要措施。本文着重对以往湖内清苇实施困难、效果不佳的原因进行了分析,为了提高今后治湖工程的综合经济效益,对开展清障工作提出了建议。     

2009年飞机人工增雨作业抗春旱效益评估

本文介绍了人工增雨作业效益的一种评估方法——区域雨量对比法,以及该方法在实际业务工作中的应用：统计了2009年春季四川省飞机人工增雨的作业情况,采用区域雨量对比法对每次作业进行效益计算,得出每次作业的影响面积、影响区降水、对比区降水、增雨量、增加的降水量等,根据春旱期间的降水情况与旱情缓解情况,对人工增雨抗春旱的效益进行了分析评估,并尝试计算出缩短春旱的持续时间,给出了评估结论,并对该方法的应用进行了讨论。该评估方法对于人工影响天气业务工作,具有一定的实用性和可操作性。     

Perspectives on Quaternary outreach and aspirations for the future

Outreach arising from the study of the British Quaternary offers many benefits for society, especially because of its relevance for understanding contemporary environmental issues and environmental change. Outreach is also important for the long-term health of the academic discipline and research agenda. Through engaging with the formal education system, institutions, policy makers, planners and with the public at large, Quaternary specialists can do much to advance interest in and appreciation of the British landscape and its Quaternary record. This opinion and review article considers the importance and benefits of outreach in its many forms, makes the case for practitioners to continue and increase their involvement, offers examples of good practice, and sets out aspirations for the future.     

降低岩心钻探成本的途径及金刚石钻头经济效果的评价

本文分析了汽车轻量化的必要性和紧迫性；论述了汽车轻量化的要求、效果和对象；从优化设计，更换材料、革新工艺三个方面探讨了轻量化途径；并以活塞和连杆为例阐明了汽车零部件的轻量化方法。