天然土石坝稳定性初步研究

具有较低强度、较高脆性和良好水稳性的岩石相似材料是在物理模型实验中重现滑坡-碎屑流成坝与溃坝全过程的关键条件之一,然而目前却极少有合适的岩石相似材料能够用于该过程的物理模拟,因此,本文以重晶石和钙砂为骨料,以石膏和硅酸钠为胶结剂,以羧甲基纤维素钠和甘油为辅助添加剂,并拌合一定的水进行岩石相似材料的配比实验。采用控制变量法研究了骨胶比、重砂比、硅膏比、羧甲基纤维素钠含量和拌合水量5种因素对相似材料物理力学性质的影响,初步探究了硅酸钠控制岩石相似材料水稳性的机理。实验结果表明：骨胶比主要控制弹性模量;重砂比对内摩擦角有较大影响;硅膏比控制水稳系数;羧甲基纤维素钠含量控制内摩擦角;拌合水量控制黏聚力和单轴抗压强度。硅酸钠在提高材料水稳性方面起到化学胶结作用、填充作用和骨架作用,是控制相似材料水稳性的关键因素。结合实验结果和理论分析,本文配制的相似材料具备较低强度、较高脆性和良好的水稳性,为在1︰400~1︰800的实验尺度下实现滑坡-碎屑流成坝溃坝全过程物理模型实验奠定基础。     

Snow avalanche incidents in north-western Anatolia,Turkey during December 1992

Snow avalanches take place in the mountainous regions of Turkey mostly in the eastern Anatolia Region with an average annual death toll of 23 people and much damage to property. However, in the mountainous areas of the Kastamonu and Sinop provinces in the western part of the Black Sea Region of Turkey between 25 and 30 December 1992, blizzards with heavy snowfall caused roof collapses and major avalanche events whereby 16 people were killed and 2 injured. When past records were investigated, there was no evidence that avalanche accidents had been encountered in the region where the dominant precipitation type is rain in the coastal zones and snow over the mountains. Moreover, avalanche prevention measures are so limited that the resettlement of villages or hamlets located in risk zones is common practice. In this article, avalanche formation associated with the meteorological conditions and geomorphologic features is discussed.This study was partially supported by Tübitak (Scientific and Technical Research Council of Turkey) with Project No. YBAG-0067.     

International Cooperation for Solving the Avalanche Problem in Turkey

Due to its geographical location, geology and topography, Turkey mainly undergoes three different types of natural disasters related to gravity flows. They are floods, landslides and snow avalanches.The heavy snow falls during winter pose the hazard of snow avalanches. According to statistics, 800 people were killed in snow avalanches during the period of 1960–1997. Within the program of the International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction (1990–2000), an international cooperation has been initiated among SFISAR (Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research), CEMAGREF (Centre National du Machinisme Agricole du Génie Rural des Eaux at des Forets) and AFET (Turkish Ministry of Public Works and Settlement, General Directorate of Disaster Affairs). This three-year project started in 1994 as a development project on avalanche forecasting, mapping, zoning and paravalanche construction technologies. For the pilot project area, the Soanli Mountains located in north-eastern Turkey were chosen, covering an area of approximately 40 by 30 km. After training the Turkish engineers, the basic technologies in avalanche forecasting and avalanche mapping were transferred from Switzerland and France to Turkey with the necessary infrastructure. The difficulties faced in meteorological data collection with the help of local observers and the limited data available caused some delay in avalanche forecasting. If automatic weather stations could take the place of manual work, the realization of a prognosis would be quicker. At present, avalanche-hit houses are rebuilt in new disaster-free zones by AFET. With this project, the idea of using paravalanche structures for protection is promoted. The physico-sociological impacts of avalanche disasters, avalanche mapping and zoning of disaster areas on local people are also studied.     

Slope failures and erosion rates on a glacierized high‐mountain face under climatic changes

In this study, rapid topographic changes and increased erosion rates caused by massive slope failures in a glacierized and permafrost‐affected high‐mountain face were investigated with respect to the current climatic change. The study was conducted at one of the highest periglacial rock faces in the European Alps, the east face of Monte Rosa, Italy. Pronounced changes in ice cover and repeated rock and ice avalanche events have been documented in this rock wall since around 1990. The performed multi‐temporal comparison of high‐resolution digital terrain models (DTMs) complemented by detailed analyses of repeat photography represents a unique assessment of topographic changes and slope failures over half a century and reveals a total volume loss in bedrock and steep glaciers in the central part of the face of around 25 × 10⁶ m³ between 1988 and 2007. The high rock and ice avalanche activity translates into an increase in erosion rates of about one order of magnitude during recent decades. The study indicates that changes in atmospheric temperatures and connected changes in ice cover can induce slope destabilization in high‐mountain faces. Analyses of temperature data show that the start of the intense mass movement activity coincided with increased mean annual temperatures in the region around 1990. However, once triggered, mass movement activity seems to be able to proceed in a self‐reinforcing cycle, whereby single mass movement events might be strongly influenced by short‐term extreme temperature events. The investigations suggest a strong stability coupling between steep glaciers and underlying bedrock, as most bedrock instabilities are located in areas where surface ice has disappeared recently and the failure zones are frequently spatially correlated and often develop from lower altitudes progressively upwards. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Indicative Structures of Paleoseismicity in the Acequion River Valley,San Juan Province,Central-Western Argentina

Evidence for paleo-seismicity has been discovered in the Acequión river valley, in West central Argentina. Two Holocene rock avalanches have been observed; the most recent of these dammed a lake, whose sediments contain liquefaction structures. At least five paleo-earthquakes affected this region during the late Quaternary, as deduced from the succession of their secondary effects. The magnitude and the probable tectonic source of these paleo-events are discussed. The observed liquefaction features associated with slumps, joints, fractures, and faults, should be generated by M>5 earthquakes related to the nearby quaternary Cerro Salinas fault, which belongs to the Eastern Precordillera fault system. These data extend the regional seismicity record to the Holocene and highlight the high seismic hazard in this part of Argentina.     

A Multidisciplinary Methodology for Hazard and Risk Assessment of Rock Avalanches

Summary A quantitative procedure for hazard and risk assessment of large landslides that can develop as rock avalanches is discussed in this paper. Reference is made to the IMIRILAND project, where a multidisciplinary methodology has been developed paying particular attention to the landslide modeling process that leads to the quantification of the hazard, i.e. the prediction of the occurrence probability, the involved area and the run-out velocity. The risk assessment methodology is exemplified in the paper with reference to two cases: the Ceppo Morelli and Rosone landslides, both of which are located in the Italian Western Alps. The results of these applications show that, despite the development of sophisticated 3D numerical methods, many uncertainties still remain in the process of modeling large and complex landslides, related in particular to the definition of the probability of failure and the rheological parameters to be used for the prediction of rock mass behavior. However geo-mechanical models are found to be very valuable tools to verify, from a mechanical point of view, the assumptions introduced through the geo-structural and geo-morphological analyses concerning the volume and the kinematics of the unstable mass, and their role is fundamental for the determination of the involved area when mechanical parameters can be assumed with sufficient reliability. Author’s address: Marta Castelli, Politecnico di Torino – Dipartimento di Ingegneria Strutturale e Geotecnica, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, 10129 Torino, Italy     

A Discontinuous Approach to the Numerical Modelling of Rock Avalanches

Summary. The runout of dry rock avalanches produced by planar rockslides affecting a limestone formation with clayey interbeds is analysed by means of distinct element modelling. Potential and past rock avalanche events are described with reference to the geotechnical and structural conditions of the slope, typical of several Alpine valleys. Runout prediction analyses of potential rock avalanches performed with the PFC^2D code are based on independent measurement of strength, energy dissipation and stiffness parameters of the rock mass and are validated by means of the back analysis of a historical rockslide occurred in the investigated area. Physical aspects of the avalanching process evidenced by modelling are also discussed. Author’s address: Paolo Tommasi, CNR – Institute for Geo-Engineering and Environmental Geology, c/o Facoltá di Ingegneria, Via Eudossiana 18, 00184 Rome, Italy     

Morphodynamique d'une dune sous-marine du détroit du pas de CalaisMorphodynamics of an undersea sandwave of the Dover Straits

This paper investigates the dynamics of sandwaves in relationship with tidal currents and weather conditions. The studied sandwaves are located in the Dover Straits and are covered by megaripples. These megaripples have migration speeds of $\text{1 }\text{m}\text{h}{}^{\mathrm{?1}}$ and slopes of 34°, suggesting the potential for avalanches to occur along the flanks of the sandwave. Tidal cycles without reversing currents were observed during stormy weather. Wind-induced currents lead to a unidirectional migration of megaripples and sandwaves. Well-defined areas without megaripples were observed and correlated with an increase in sandwave height. We propose interpretations for understanding sandwave saturation and migration. To cite this article: D. Idier et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1079–1085.     

On probabilities of avalanches triggered by alpine skiers. An empirically driven decision strategy for backcountry skiers based on these probabilities

Most fatal avalanche accidents in the Alps are caused by skiers and snowboarders. It has been one aim from the beginning to give guidelines for backcountry skiers in order to avoid avalanche accidents. About 10 years ago, the mountain guide Werner Munter developed a strategy for backcountry skiers whether to go or not to go on a skiing tour. However, his decision strategy has a lack of empirical evidence because he does not take into account incidents without avalanche accidents. This article proposes a decision strategy for backcountry skiers based on probabilities of a logistic regression model using variables, such as danger level, incline of the slope and aspect of the slope, which turned out to be the most important ones. Additional information on frequencies of skiers on slopes under specific conditions is included in the model. We used accident data and avalanche forecasts in Tyrol reported by the Tyrolean avalanche information service within three seasons (1999–2002, 497 days of observations) for model building. Additionally we carried out a holdout validation using data of the same type within two seasons (2002–2004, 314 days of observation) in order to check the accuracy of the model. Our proposal shows a remarkable correlation with Munter’s method.     

Geomorphic evidence of ancient catastrophic flow type landslides in the mid-mountain ridges of the Western Flysch Carpathian Mountains （Czech Republic）

Ancient flow type landslides are relatively frequent fossil forms of the relief in mid-mountain conditions of the Czech Carpathian Mountains. Sixty rather distinctive displays of debris flows, rock avalanches, and debris avalanches have been mapped in the uppermost part of the territory. Unlike contemporary sporadic and low volume debris flows, ancient （Pleistocene and Lower Holocene） accumulations are a few orders of magnitude more extensive and were of considerable geomorphologic significance in forming the steep sections of mountain valleys and slopes. This geomorphic pattern does not hold for flow type slides, the source of which is material released as a consequence of numerous deep-seated landslides. Due to deep disruption of slopes, a few high-magnitude flow type landslides （e.g., rock avalanches）, quite rare in flysch mid-mountain conditions, also occurred in the Late Holocene.