发展基于集合样本估计的SST张驰逼近方法用于气候模式的次表层海温场订正

An ensemble-based assimilation method is proposed for correcting the subsurface temperature field when nudging the sea surface temperature(SST) observations into the Max Planck Institute(MPI) climate model,ECHAM5/MPI-OM. This method can project SST directly to subsurface according to model ensemble-based correlations between SST and subsurface temperature. Results from a 50 year(1960–2009) assimilation experiment show the method can improve the subsurface temperature field up to 300 m compared to the qualitycontrolled subsurface ocean temperature objective analyses(EN4), through reducing the biases of the thermal states, improving the thermocline structure, and reducing the root mean square(RMS) errors. Moreover, as most of the improvements concentrate over the upper 100 m, the ocean heat content in the upper 100 m(OHT100 m)is further adopted as a property to validate the performance of the ensemble-based correction method. The results show that RMS errors of the global OHT100 m convergent to one value after several times iteration,indicating this method can represent the relationship between SST and subsurface temperature fields well, and then improve the accuracy of the simulation in the subsurface temperature of the climate model.     

中期数值预报系统T213L31在IBM/SP高性能计算机上的建立

在引进欧洲中期天气预报中心 (ECMWF) 的全球谱模式的基础上,通过对原模式的分析改造,首次以分布与共享相结合的方式在国家气象中心IBM/SP高性能计算机上实现了全球谱模式的高效运行。采用调整向量长度、优化程序设计、完善消息传递机制和实现MPI与OpenMP的混合并行编程等方法,减少模式的通信量、计算量和内存的使用量,提高了计算效率。实现了在T213L31分辨率条件下,10天预报可以在3 h之内完成,达到业务对时限的要求。建立了与T213L31全球谱模式相配套的最优插值（OI）并行处理分析系统,解决了由于观测站点在全球不均匀分布所带来的计算负载不均衡问题。在此基础上,实现了T213L31全球资料同化与预报系统并建立了相应的自动作业监控系统。     

区域三维变分同化中背景误差协方差的模拟

背景误差协方差(B)是变分同化中的一个重要部分,极大地影响同化系统输出的分析场.由于计算和指定B中有关统计量需要巨大的资料存储量和计算量,因此进行相关的研究较为困难.本文首先论述了B在变分同化中的重要性以及进行模拟的必要性;接着介绍了美国NMC方法的原理,并研究将其应用到区域三维变分同化中的方法;然后利用WRF模式生成的预报场差值集合对有关统计量进行了估计.揭示了以下结论:通过使用平衡变换和回归系数,控制变量被限制在较小范围内,保证了分析场的质量;流函数第一全局特征向量在200 hPa附近的最大分量,表示了急流层中强西风误差;流函数前五个全局特征向量在低层与中高层之间是负相关的;非平衡温度和相对湿度的特征长度尺度比流函数和非平衡速度势的值要小,说明它们是局地性较强的量.流函数和非平衡速度势的特征长度尺度随垂直模态数的增大快速减小,而相对湿度和非平衡温度的特征长度尺度随垂直模态数的变化较为平缓.     

Ensemble-based Kalman filters in strongly nonlinear dynamics

This study examines the effectiveness of ensemble Kalman filters in data assimilation with the strongly nonlinear dynamics of the Lorenz-63 model, and in particular their use in predicting the regime transition that occurs when the model jumps from one basin of attraction to the other. Four configurations of the ensemble-based Kalman filtering data assimilation techniques, including the ensemble Kalman filter, ensemble adjustment Kalman filter, ensemble square root filter and ensemble transform Kalman filter, are evaluated with their ability in predicting the regime transition (also called phase transition) and also are compared in terms of their sensitivity to both observational and sampling errors. The sensitivity of each ensemble-based filter to the size of the ensemble is also examined.     

可降水量资料反演及在暴雨数值模拟中的初步应用

通过同化可降水资料改善模式初始湿度场从而提高暴雨模拟与预报效果。首先应用适时回归方法反演大气可降水量资料，然后以1998年6月18—19日暴雨模拟为例，采用变分同化方法研究了可降水量资料在暴雨数值模拟中的作用。数值模拟结果表明：1)MM5模式中同化可降水量资料后，对于雨带位置的模拟效果起到很大的改善；亦可改进暴雨降水强度的模拟效果，改进程度与降水参数化方案有关。2)同化可降水量资料后，明显改善初始湿度场，在一定程度上缓解旋转加强(spin up)问题，从而有效地提高降水模拟效果。3)降水模拟对参数化方案的选取同样敏感，改进初始湿度场的同时应该选择相应的降水参数化方案。     

The Negra Muerta Volcanic Complex, southern Central Andes: geochemical characteristics and magmatic evolution of an episodically active volcanic centre

This petrologic analysis of the Negra Muerta Volcanic Complex (NMVC) contributes to understanding the magmatic evolution of eruptive centres associated with prominent NW-striking fault zones in the southern Central Andes. Specifically, the geochemical characteristics and magmatic evolution of the two eruptive episodes of this Complex are analysed. The first one occurred as an explosive eruption at 9 Ma and is represented by a strongly welded, fiamme-rich, andesitic to dacitic ignimbrite deposit. The second commenced with an eruption of a rhyolitic ignimbrite at 7.6 Ma followed by effusive discharge of hybrid lavas at 7.3 Ma and by emplacement of andesitic to rhyodacitic dykes and domes. Both explosive and effusive eruptions of the second episode occurred within a short time span, but geochemical interpretations permit consideration of the existence of different magmas interacting in the same magma chamber. Our model involves an andesitic recharge into a partially cooled rhyolitic magma chamber, pressurising the magmatic system and triggering explosive eruption of rhyolitic magma. Chemical or mechanical evidence for interaction between the rhyolitic and andesitic magma in the initial stages are not obvious because of their difference in composition, which could have been strong enough to inhibit the interaction between the two magmas. After the initial explosive stages of the eruption at 7.6 Ma, the magma chamber become more depressurised and the most mafic magma settled in compositional layers by fractional crystallisation. Restricted hybridisation occurred and was effective between adjacent and thermally equivalent layers close to the top of the magma chamber. At 7.3 Ma, increments of caldera formation were accompanied by effusive discharge of hybrid lavas through radially disposed dykes whereby andesitic magma gained in importance toward the end of this effusive episode in the central portion of the caldera. Assimilation during turbulent ascent (ATA) is invoked to explain a conspicuous reversed isotopic signature (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd) in the entire volcanic series. Therefore, the 7.6 to 7.3 Ma volcanic rocks of the NMVC resulted from synchronous and mutually interacting petrological processes such as recharge, fractional crystallization, hybridisation, and Assimilation during Turbulent Ascent (ATA).Geochemical characteristics of both volcanic episodes show diverse type and/or depth in the sources and variable influence of upper crustal processes, and indicate a recurrence in the magma-forming conditions. Similarly, other minor volcanic centres in the transversal volcanic belts of the Central Andes repeated their geochemical signatures throughout the Miocene.     

Microphysical Retrieval from Doppler Radar Reflectivity Using Variational Data Assimilation

One of the microphysical variables, the rainwater mixing ratio qr, is retrieved from the observed reflectivity of Doppler radar by a 3D variational data assimilation system. The qr as an analysis variable is obtained by minimizing a cost function defined as the difference between observed radar reflectivity and its retrieval from qr, plus the difference between qr and its background field from a mesoscale model's prediction. Covariance matrix of the background field's error is determined by the so-called NMC method. A method called the second-order auto-regression (SOAR) is used to calculate the coefficients of regressive filtering to fit in with small spatial scale such as cumulus in the process of spatial transformation. An ideal experiment demonstrates the correctness of this system and a sensitivity experiment proves that the random error of observed reflectivity has effect on the analyzed results. At last an experiment with observed data from the Doppler radar at Ma'anshan City in Anhui Province on 19 June 2002 was performed. The retrieved analysis variable qr in this test shows structures in detail, which coincide with the distribution of the echo picture observed by the radar.     

基于约束性分析的数据与作物模型同化方法

同化观测数据可为作物生长模型的区域应用提供支持。该文定义了观测数据对模型参数的约束性,研究发现华北夏玉米观测数据对WOFOST模型的可约束参数主要包括初始总干物重、不同发育阶段的比叶面积、初始最大CO₂同化速率、叶片衰老系数、初始土壤有效水、最大根深日增量以及初始根深的初始土壤水分含量等。建立了基于参数约束性分析的观测数据与作物生长模型同化方法和流程, 利用优化算法进行作物生长模型所有参数和变量初值的敏感性分析,遴选出各状态变量的敏感参数;根据拟合度与优化结果之间关系进行敏感参数的约束性分析,获得不同变量的可约束参数;组合优化可约束参数得到各参数最优值,由此实现了观测数据与作物生长模型的同化。约束性体现了观测数据对模型参数或变量初值的控制能力,可约束参数作为待优化参数使数据模型同化获得了最优结果。     

基于ROMS模式的南海SST与SSH四维变分同化研究

卫星遥感观测获得了大量高分辨率的海面实时信息,包括海面温度（SST）和海面高度（SSH）等,同化进入数值模式可有效提升模拟精度。本文基于ROMS模式与四维变分同化方法（4DVAR）,使用AVHRR SST和AVISO SSH数据,开展了南海区域同化实验。为检验同化的效果,分别利用HYCOM再分析资料和Argo温盐实测数据分析了同化结果的海面高度、流场及温盐剖面的精度。对比结果表明,SST和SSH的同化能够改善ROMS的模拟结果:同化后海面高度场能够更为准确地捕捉海洋的中尺度特征,与HYCOM海面高度再分析资料相比,平均绝对偏差和均方根误差分别为0.054 m和0.066 m;与HYCOM 10 m层流场相比,东向与北向流速平均绝对偏差分别为0.12 m/s和0.11 m/s,相比未同化均提升约0.01 m/s;温盐同化结果与Argo温盐实测具有较高的一致性,温度和盐度平均绝对偏差为0.45℃、0.077,均方根误差为0.91℃、0.11,单个的温盐廓线对比说明,同化结果与HYCOM再分析资料精度相当。     

RTTOV散射模块在FY-3 MWHS资料同化中的应用

一直以来,受同化系统中观测算子的限制,云区的卫星微波观测资料在使用时都常会做晴空假设,只考虑大气的吸收作用而忽略散射作用,从而会造成对大气中水汽含量的高估。为了克服这一缺点,文中设计了RTTOV微波散射模块在WRF 3DVAR系统中的应用方案,使得计算辐射能衰减的同时考虑大气的散射作用,并在此基础上通过4组试验进行了风云3 A星微波湿度计亮温以及多普勒雷达反射率因子的同化研究对比。结果表明：RTTOV微波散射模块的引入,能有效抑制晴空辐射模块对大气水汽含量的高估。若先同化雷达反射率因子后再继续同化卫星资料,会发现同化雷达后,同化区域内大气水凝物含量明显增加,受此影响同化卫星资料时大气的散射作用也会随之增大。并且雷达同化区域覆盖率越大,对降水预报的改善效果也愈明显。