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91.
Time-Expanded Sampling Approach for Ensemble Kalman Filter:Experiment Assimilation of Simulated Soundings
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In the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation-prediction system, most of the computation
time is spent on the prediction runs of ensemble members. A limited or small ensemble size does reduce the
computational cost, but an excessively small ensemble size usually leads to filter divergence, especially when
there are model errors. In order to improve the efficiency of the EnKF data assimilation-prediction system
and prevent it against filter divergence, a time-expanded sampling approach for EnKF based on the WRF
(Weather Research and Forecasting) model is used to assimilate simulated sounding data. The approach
samples a series of perturbed state vectors from Nb member prediction runs not only at the analysis time
(as the conventional approach does) but also at equally separated time levels (time interval is △t) before
and after the analysis time with M times. All the above sampled state vectors are used to construct the
ensemble and compute the background covariance for the analysis, so the ensemble size is increased from
Nb to Nb+2M£Nb=(1+2M)×Nb) without increasing the number of prediction runs (it is still Nb). This
reduces the computational cost. A series of experiments are conducted to investigate the impact of △t (the
time interval of time-expanded sampling) and M (the maximum sampling times) on the analysis. The results
show that if △t and M are properly selected, the time-expanded sampling approach achieves the similar
effect to that from the conventional approach with an ensemble size of (1+2M)×Nb, but the number of
prediction runs is greatly reduced. 相似文献
92.
Haishen Lü Xiaoli Li Zhongbo Yu Robert Horton Yonghua Zhu Zhenchun Hao Long Xiang 《水文研究》2010,24(25):3648-3660
Root zone soil water content impacts plant water availability, land energy and water balances. Because of unknown hydrological model error, observation errors and the statistical characteristics of the errors, the widely used Kalman filter (KF) and its extensions are challenged to retrieve the root zone soil water content using the surface soil water content. If the soil hydraulic parameters are poorly estimated, the KF and its extensions fail to accurately estimate the root zone soil water. The H‐infinity filter (HF) represents a robust version of the KF. The HF is widely used in data assimilation and is superior to the KF, especially when the performance of the model is not well understood. The objective of this study is to study the impact of uncertain soil hydraulic parameters, initial soil moisture content and observation period on the ability of HF assimilation to predict in situ soil water content. In this article, we study seven cases. The results show that the soil hydraulic parameters hold a critical role in the course of assimilation. When the soil hydraulic parameters are poorly estimated, an accurate estimation of root soil water content cannot be retrieved by the HF assimilation approach. When the estimated soil hydraulic parameters are similar to actual values, the soil water content at various depths can be accurately retrieved by the HF assimilation. The HF assimilation is not very sensitive to the initial soil water content, and the impact of the initial soil water content on the assimilation scheme can be eliminated after about 5–7 days. The observation interval is important for soil water profile distribution retrieval with the HF, and the shorter the observation interval, the shorter the time required to achieve actual soil water content. However, the retrieval results are not very accurate at a depth of 100 cm. Also it is complex to determine the weighting coefficient and the error attenuation parameter in the HF assimilation. In this article, the trial‐and‐error method was used to determine the weighting coefficient and the error attenuation parameter. After the first establishment of limited range of the parameters, ‘the best parameter set’ was selected from the range of values. For the soil conditions investigated, the HF assimilation results are better than the open‐loop results. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
93.
阎小培 《中国地理科学(英文版)》1997,(1)
I.INT~IOWFOralOngthe,thesyStemofPermanentresidencempistrationhasdividedChineseampleintOthO8ewith"tirbanresidence"andthOSehaving"rUralresidence".TherationingsyStem,underwhichedibleoilandgrainwasdistributedonlytOthOSewith"urbanresidence"Calds,hasbeendondnant.Bothsystems,beingcentraltorestrictingthegrowthofurbanpopulation,havestagnatedrUral-tirbaningration.Duringthe30yearsbefore1978,thestatedidsPOnsorpopulationmovementsfromrUraltourbanareasbymeansofenrollingnewworkers,butingeneral,thiss… 相似文献
94.
Phase Equilibria Constraints on the Chemical and Physical Evolution of the Campanian Ignimbrite 总被引:5,自引:1,他引:4
Fowler Sarah J.; Spera Frank J.; Bohrson Wendy A.; Belkin Harvey E.; De Vivo Benedetto 《Journal of Petrology》2007,48(3):459-493
The Campanian Ignimbrite is a > 200 km3 trachytephonolitepyroclastic deposit that erupted at 39·3 ± 0·1ka within the Campi Flegrei west of Naples, Italy. Here we testthe hypothesis that Campanian Ignimbrite magma was derived byisobaric crystal fractionation of a parental basaltic trachyandesiticmelt that reacted and came into local equilibrium with smallamounts (510 wt%) of crustal rock (skarns and foid-syenites)during crystallization. Comparison of observed crystal and magmacompositions with results of phase equilibria assimilationfractionationsimulations (MELTS) is generally very good. Oxygen fugacitywas approximately buffered along QFM + 1 (where QFM is the quartzfayalitemagnetitebuffer) during isobaric fractionation at 0·15 GPa ( 6km depth). The parental melt, reconstructed from melt inclusionand host clinopyroxene compositions, is found to be basaltictrachyandesite liquid (51·1 wt% SiO2, 9·3 wt%MgO, 3 wt% H2O). A significant feature of phase equilibria simulationsis the existence of a pseudo-invariant temperature, 883 °C,at which the fraction of melt remaining in the system decreasesabruptly from 0·5 to < 0·1. Crystallizationat the pseudo-invariant point leads to abrupt changes in thecomposition, properties (density, dissolved water content),and physical state (viscosity, volume fraction fluid) of meltand magma. A dramatic decrease in melt viscosity (from 1700Pa s to 200 Pa s), coupled with a change in the volume fractionof water in magma (from 0·1 to 0·8) and a dramaticdecrease in melt and magma density acted as a destabilizingeruption trigger. Thermal models suggest a timescale of 200kyr from the beginning of fractionation until eruption, leadingto an apparent rate of evolved magma generation of about 103km3/year. In situ crystallization and crystal settling in density-stratifiedregions, as well as in convectively mixed, less evolved subjacentmagma, operate rapidly enough to match this apparent volumetricrate of evolved magma production. KEY WORDS: assimilation; Campanian Ignimbrite; fractional crystallization; magma dynamics; phase equilibria 相似文献
95.
《地学前缘(英文版)》2023,14(2):101517
We present in situ trace element and Nd isotopic data of apatites from metamorphosed and metasomatized (i.e., altered) and unaltered granitoids in the Songnen and Jiamusi massifs in the eastern Central Asian Orogenic Belt, with the aim of fingerprinting granitoid petrogenesis, including both the magmatic and post-magmatic evolution processes. Apatites from altered granitoids (AG) and unaltered granitoids (UG) are characterized by distinct textures and geochemical compositions. Apatites from AG have irregular rim overgrowths and complex internal textures, along with low contents of rare earth elements (REEs), suggesting the re-precipitation of apatite during epidote crystallization and/or leaching of REEs from apatite by metasomatic fluids. εNd(t) values of the these apatites are decoupled from zircon εHf(t) values for most samples, which can be attributed to the higher mobility of Nd as compared to Sm in certain fluids. Apatites from UG are of igneous origin based on their homogeneous or concentric zoned textures and coupled Nd-Hf isotopic compositions. Trace element variations in igneous apatite are controlled primarily by the geochemical composition of the parental melt, fractional crystallization of other REE-bearing minerals, and changes in partition coefficients. Sr contents and Eu/Eu* values of apatites from UG correlate with whole-rock Sr and SiO2 contents, highlighting the effects of plagioclase fractionation during magma evolution. Apatites from UG can be subdivided into four groups based on REE contents. Group 1 apatites have REE patterns similar to the host granitoids, but are slightly enriched in middle REEs, reflecting the influence of the parental melt composition and REE partitioning. Group 2 apatites exhibit strong light REE depletions, whereas Group 3 apatites are depleted in middle and heavy REEs, indicative of the crystallization of epidote-group minerals and hornblende before and/or during apatite crystallization, respectively. Group 4 apatites are depleted in heavy REEs, but enriched in Sr, which are features of adakites. Some unusual geochemical features of the apatites, including the REE patterns, Sr contents, Eu anomalies, and Nd isotopic compositions, indicate that inherited apatites are likely to retain the geochemical features of their parental magmas, and thus provide a record of small-scale crustal assimilation during magma evolution that is not evident from the whole-rock geochemistry. 相似文献
96.
97.
以2018年3月4日影响浙江的初春罕见飑线过程为例,利用WRF模式与GSI-3DVar同化系统开展了雷达资料同化对重大强对流天气的影响研究,分析了雷达资料同化对此次飑线过程的模拟改进作用和可能影响过程,对比了雷达反射率因子和雷达径向速度的同化效果,探讨了不同数量和位置的雷达资料同化对模拟效果的影响。结果表明:雷达资料(尤其是反射率因子)同化有效改善了飑线边界层特征的模拟,从而改进了模式对飑线过程中组合反射率因子、降水、大风等发展演变的模拟效果。雷达反射率因子同化通过直接调整水凝物质含量,修正风暴中降水模拟及由此引起的蒸发冷却,形成更接近实况的强冷池,进而产生了比雷达径向速度同化更大的正贡献。相对于同化非关键区域的雷达资料,同化飑线过程上游关键区域的雷达观测所包含的重要中小尺度信息,对飑线过程模拟效果提升更为重要。 相似文献
98.
G. T. Csanady 《大气与海洋》2013,51(1):18-19
A brief survey is given of the sources, the methods of injection into the atmosphere, and the mechanisms of deposition into bodies of water for various atmospheric pollutants which contribute significantly to the pollution of large bodies of water. Specific examples of the relative importance of atmospheric sources are included where data are available. Programs of the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service in this field of research are outlined. 相似文献
99.
Assimilating Best Track Minimum Sea Level Pressure Data Together with Doppler Radar Data Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter for Hurricane Ike (2008) at a Cloud-Resolving Resolution
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Extending an earlier study, the best track minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) data are assimilated for landfalling Hurricane Ike (2008) using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), in addition to data from two coastal ground-based Doppler radars, at a 4-km grid spacing. Treated as a sea level pressure observation, the MSLP assimilation by the EnKF enhances the hurricane warm core structure and results in a stronger and deeper analyzed vortex than that in the GFS (Global Forecast System) analysis; it also improves the subsequent 18-h hurricane intensity and track forecasts. With a 2-h total assimilation window length, the assimilation of MSLP data interpolated to 10-min intervals results in more balanced analyses with smaller subsequent forecast error growth and better intensity and track forecasts than when the data are assimilated every 60 minutes. Radar data are always assimilated at 10-min intervals. For both intensity and track forecasts, assimilating MSLP only outperforms assimilating radar reflectivity (Z) only. For intensity forecast, assimilating MSLP at 10-min intervals outperforms radar radial wind (Vr) data (assimilated at 10-min intervals), but assimilating MSLP at 60-min intervals fails to beat Vr data. For track forecast, MSLP assimilation has a slightly (noticeably) larger positive impact than Vr(Z) data. When Vr or Z is combined with MSLP, both intensity and track forecasts are improved more than the assimilation of individual observation type. When the total assimilation window length is reduced to 1h or less, the assimilation of MSLP alone even at 10-min intervals produces poorer 18-h intensity forecasts than assimilating Vr only, indicating that many assimilation cycles are needed to establish balanced analyses when MSLP data alone are assimilated; this is due to the very limited pieces of information that MSLP data provide. 相似文献
100.
由于下垫面的复杂性,卫星近地面通道的辐射率资料没有得到充分开发和利用。就我国自主研发的GRAPES 3DVar而言,红外高光谱近地面通道资料还没有应用于陆地,即使在下垫面相对简单的海洋,由于背景场海表温度估计不够准确,红外高光谱资料的使用效果也不甚理想。针对GRAPES模式的背景场海表温度估计不够准确这一问题,本文利用大气红外探测仪器AIRS(The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder)辐射率观测资料通过一维变分(1DVar)方法对其晴空视场点内的背景场海表温度进行调整,再运用GRAPES全球分析预报系统进行同化分析,研究了海表温度调整后对分析场的影响。结果表明,利用一维变分调整后的海表温度不仅使得低层通道的模拟亮温与观测亮温更加匹配,而且有效地改进了分析场,对位势高度场高、中、低层均有不错的改进,对低层湿度场以及风场的改进也较为明显。 相似文献