高原低涡结构特征模拟与诊断的初步研究

利用二重嵌套的非静力中尺度数值模式MM5对2005年7月28—29日的一次高原低涡过程进行了数值模拟,并利用模拟结果对此次低涡的结构进行了初步分析。结果表明：MM5模式对此次低涡过程有较好的模拟能力,模拟出的位势高度场分布和涡度场结构与实况基本吻合。此次高原低涡具有同热带气旋相似的涡眼（空心）结构和暖心结构。在流场上,高原低涡在涡眼区下层表现为辐散下沉运动,上层为辐合上升运动;而在涡心四周下层表现为辐合上升运动,上层为辐散下沉运动;在涡度场上,高原低涡下层为正涡度区,上层为负涡度区。     

模糊优选神经网络模型在城市防洪规划方案优选中的应用

城市防洪规划方案的综合优选是一个涉及到政治、社会、经济、环境等多准则、多因素的复杂多目标决策问题.针对目前各种常用的综合优选模型应用中存在的指标权重选择及转换问题,利用模糊优选神经网络模型,构造了合理的网络拓扑结构并将模型应用于某城市的防洪规划方案综合优选中.实例结果表明,此模型不仅避免了对指标权重的处理问题,而且明显加快了BP网络的收敛速度.     

人影高炮作业数据采集器的移动电源设计

高炮作业是人工影响天气的日常工作,其作业数据的采集与收集尤为重要。高炮作业数据采集器是实现作业数据的采集与存储,一般采用锂电池供电。针对锂电池容量低而无法满足采集器的长时间使用,常在高炮作业的关键时刻电量不足影响高炮作业顺利进行的问题,设计了一种人影高炮作业数据采集器的专用移动电源。该专用移动电源由充放电保护电路、电芯、电芯容量指示电路、DC-DC升压电路、及CN3703充电管理电路等部分组成。经过最终测试,该设计符合实际使用要求、成本低、性能稳定,具有较强的工程应用价值。     

Prediction of Space Weather Using an Asymmetric Cone Model for Halo CMEs

Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) are responsible of the most severe geomagnetic storms. A prediction of their geoeffectiveness and travel time to Earth’s vicinity is crucial to forecast space weather. Unfortunately, coronagraphic observations are subjected to projection effects and do not provide true characteristics of CMEs. Recently, Michalek (Solar Phys. 237, 101, 2006) developed an asymmetric cone model to obtain the space speed, width, and source location of HCMEs. We applied this technique to obtain the parameters of all front-sided HCMEs observed by the SOHO/LASCO experiment during a period from the beginning of 2001 until the end of 2002 (solar cycle 23). These parameters were applied for space weather forecasting. Our study finds that the space speeds are strongly correlated with the travel times of HCMEs to Earth’s vicinity and with the magnitudes related to geomagnetic disturbances.     

广东2008年低温雨雪冰冻灾害及气象应急响应

2008年初我国南方遭受了百年一遇低温雨雪冰冻灾害,广东的受灾程度属80年一遇,造成了重大经济损失和严重社会影响.分析发现:灾害过程在近年来最严重的一次拉尼娜事件背景下发生的,与欧亚地区持续大气环流异常密切相关.在北脊南槽和西太平洋副高偏北偏强的形势下,冷暖气流在我国南方地区频繁交汇,使对流层中低层形成逆温层和局地经向环流产生异常,造成了此次持续低温雨雪冰冻过程.面对灾害引发的公共事件,广东省气象部门打破常规、准确预警,启动预案,通过媒体和公共事件预警信息发布平台,及时传播权威的公共预警信息,为安定民心、稳定社会、减少灾害起到积极作用.灾后反思发现,山区冰灾的监测、灾害的评估、公共信息发布等的能力和规范均亟待加强.     

The challenge of predicting the occurrence of intense storms

Geomagnetic super-storms of October and November 2003 are compared in order to identify solar and interplanetary variables that influence the magnitude of geomagnetic storms. Although these superstorms (D_ST < -300 nT) are associated with high speed CMEs, their DST indices show large variation. The most intense storm of November 20, 2003 (D_St∼ - 472 nT) had its source in a comparatively small active region and was associated with a relatively weaker, M-class flare, while the others had their origins in large active regions and were associated with strong X-class flares. An attempt has been made to implement a logistic regression model for the prediction of the occurrence of intense/superintense geomagnetic storms. The model parameters (regression coefficients) were estimated from a training data-set extracted from a data-set of 64 geo-effective CMEs observed during 1996–2002. The results indicate that logistic regression models can be effectively used for predicting the occurrence of major geomagnetic storms from a set of solar and interplanetary factors. The model validation shows that 100% of the intense storms (-200 nT < D_St < -100 nT) and only 50% of the super-intense (DST < -200 nT) storms could be correctly predicted.     

Multi-band Solar Full-disk Extreme Ultraviolet Imager

Solar Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) imaging observation is an important measure for the researches of solar activities and coronal plasma physics. But the traditional EUV imager and spectrograph can hardly achieve simultaneously the high spectral resolution and wide field-of-view of solar imaging. This paper has designed a new type of solar EUV multi-band imager, by adopting a kind of slitless grating and grazing incidence structure, it can realize the solar full-disk imaging of high spectral and spatial resolution. The field-of-view of the imager can be as broad as 47′. The spectral resolution is 2×10^?3nm per pixel, and the spatial resolution is 1.4′ per pixel. The temporal resolution of the solar full-disk is better than 60 s. The analysis of the solar full-disk spectral image and system response shows that the imager can observe the morphological evolutions of various solar activities, and can provide more comprehensive data for the researches of solar physics and space weather forecast.     

2008年初云南低温雨雪冰冻天气的气候成因分析

2008年1月下旬~3月上旬云南出现了一次持续性的低温雨雪冰冻天气, 给交通、 电力、 通讯以及人民的生产、 生活带来了极大危害。本文首先对云南高低层大气的异常状况及大尺度环流背景场特征对这次天气过程的影响进行诊断分析, 然后进一步探讨了赤道东太平洋海温异常对东亚冬季风活动和云南天气气候异常的影响。结果表明, 这次低温冷害过程主要发生在冷空气由北至南逐渐加强南压, 南支西风波动配合, 以及西太平洋副热带高压减弱东退的大尺度环流背景之下。同时, 云南区域的大气异常状态表现出了明显的高湿、 强上升运动以及对流层中高层温度升高而低层温度降低。另外, 本文分析还进一步表明了2008年赤道东太平洋地区的冷海水异常对这次云南低温冷害天气过程的重要作用。     

Numerical continuation of families of frozen orbits in the zonal problem of artificial satellite theory

In the zonal problem of a satellite around the Earth, we continue numerically natural families of periodic orbits with the polar component of the angular momentum as the parameter. We found three families; two of them are made of orbits with linear stability while the third one is made of unstable orbits. Except in a neighborhood of the critical inclination, the stable periodic (or frozen) orbits have very small eccentricities even for large inclinations.     

卫星光电跟踪资料处理

介绍了云南天文台卫星目视观测组新使用的一种卫星光电资料的平滑处理方法—多直线选优法。文中给出了此方法的基本原理, 计算公式, 计算结果以及实际应用情况。