Anthropogenic pressures on productive soils in Corlu and Cerkezkoy

Unplanned land use is mainly arising from previous regional (local) planning policies based on economic growth, which resulted in the misuse of the land. The fertile lands are converted to industrial/urban areas along with forest areas converted to agricultural zones which directly affect the flora and fauna in a negative way. This study aims to identify the land use transformations by using Remote Sensing and GIS due to prior socio-economic return focused politics resulting in environmental degradations. Additionally, this paper presents an analysis of the transformation of fertile lands into industrial/urban zones with respect to Land Capability Classes. The study area is one of the most urbanized and industrialized zones in Turkey. The reason behind this transformation lies solely in the fact that the aforementioned area is quite appealing to industrialization due to its easy access to infrastructure and its compliance with the spatial requirements. Up until now the development plans of the region have been prepared with a socioeconomic agenda promoting the economic growth while disregarding the ecological and environmental balance, which unfortunately boosted the large-scale degradation of the environment. Although the focus area is within a zone suitable for industrialization, this region also takes place within a wide river basin (Ergene River Basin) making it an ideal location for highly productive crop cultivation (LUC Classes 1 to 4), which is a rare commodity in long term.     

2010年7月14～18日四川大暴雨过程区域模式预报性能分析

本文应用高空与地面常规观测资料,自动站资料以及2010年西南涡科学观测试验资料等,就西南区域气象中心运行的GRAPES模式、AREM模式、MM5模式以及基于WRF模式的RUC系统对发生在2010年7月14～18日四川大暴雨过程预报情况进行分析。结果表明,从降水预报,到影响系统,以及单点地面、高空要素预报,尽管各区域模式表现出对此大暴雨过程有一定的预报能力,但存在着不同程度差异,如降水落区、降水强度偏差,影响系统的偏离等。当分析模式定点预报时,预报偏差更为明显。相对而言,WRF模式预报结果略好于其它模式的预报。造成模式预报偏差的原因还有待作进一步分析研究。     

Forecasting Quasi-stationary Front Rainstorm in Southeast China Using Synthetically Multilevel Analog Forecast Technology

The authors use numerical model integral products in a third level forecast of synthetically multi-level analog forecast technology.This is one of the strongest points of this study,which also includes the re-ducing mean vacant-forecast rate method,which pos-sesses many advantages with regard to filtering the analog term.Moreover,the similitude degree between samples is assessed using a combination of meteorological elements,which works better than that described using a single element in earlier analog forecast studies.Based on these techniques,the authors apply the model output,air sounding,surface observation and weather map data from 1990 to 2002 to perform an analog experiment of the quasi-stationary front rainstorm.The most important re-sults are as follows:(1) The forecast successful index is 0.36,and was improved after the forecast model was re-vised.(2) The forecast precise rate (0.59) and the lost-forecast rate (0.33) are also better than those of other methods.(3) Based on the model output data,the syn-thetically multilevel analog forecast technology can pro-duce more accurate forecasts of a quasi-stationary front rainstorm.(4) Optimal analog elements reveal that trig-gering mechanisms are located in the lower troposphere while upper level systems are more important in main-taining the phase of the rainstorm.These variables should be first taken into account in operational forecasts of the quasi-stationary front rainstorm.(5) In addition,experi-ments reveal that the position of the key zone is mainly decided by the position of the system causing the heavy rainfall.     

一种新型粘滞阻尼材料的试验研究

粘滞阻尼材料是粘滞阻尼器的重要组成部分,其性能直接影响阻尼器的各项性能指标。本文研制了一种新型的粘滞阻尼材料,并通过各项试验对其高温下的热稳定性、化学安定性、耐久性、安全性及动态力学性能进行了深入研究。试验表明,本文研制的粘滞阻尼材料具有安全、稳定、耐久性好、耗能能力强等特点,可满足结构耗能构件的要求。     

天山北坡经济带可持续发展能力的综合评价

通过选取经济、社会、生态环境三方面24个与天山北坡经济带11个市县可持续发展密切相关的原始指标．通过因子分析对原始指标进行两级降维处理,最后得到3个综合指标。根据综合得分的数值对天山北坡经济带可持续发展能力进行排序,从高到低依次为：克拉玛依市、乌鲁木齐市、石河子市、乌苏市、奎屯市、米泉市、沙湾县、昌青市、阜康市、玛纳斯县、呼图壁县。结合地域特征划分出3类可持续发展类型区：（1）综合经济实力型和工业经济主导型“强”可持续发展地区;（2）工业经济与农业经济均衡型“中”可持续发展地区;（3）农业经济主导型“弱”可持续发展地区。并对各类型区可持续发展能力的构成因素进行了分析。同时对天山北坡经济带的可持续发展提出了一些建议。     

已建城市排水管网的排涝能力评估方法

以SWMM 模型为平台构建已建城市区域排涝模型,以广州市芳村高尔夫地块为研究区域,基于研究区域实测降雨、径流等资料对模型进行参数率定和验证,模拟在不同暴雨重现期下已建城市区域雨水管网的排涝能力。研究结果表明：该区域遭遇2 a 一遇暴雨时,J14、J15 和J31 等3 个排水节点出现积水;当遭遇5 a 一遇时,J15 片区和J31 节点出现较为严重的积水,其中J15 和J31 节点积水量分别达到1 674、546 m³;积水时间分别为0.5、0.4 h。针对研究区域排水管网排涝能力偏低的现状,建议结合LID（Low Impact Development）措施,削减暴雨洪峰流量,提高区域排涝能力。文章构建的已建城市排水管网排涝能力评估方法,可识别区域主要积水黑点及管道满流管段,提供了一种动态、定性和定量评估排水管网能力的方法。     

提升甘肃地震应急指挥系统服务能力的措施和思考

考虑地震应急工作的特点、应急指挥系统的技术现状,以及政府部门应急决策的需求,结合2013年甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震应急响应的全面总结,提出了提升甘肃地震应急指挥系统服务能力的几点措施和思考。     

基于出游力的我国主要国际客源市场分类研究

从影响旅游者出游能力的相关因素出发,以2010年的统计数据为基础,选取了21个主要客源国,对影响其旅华潜力的9项相关因素进行了因子和聚类分析。结果显示:国际客源国的旅华潜力主要受客源国经济发展因子、社会发展因子和对华联系因子3类公共因子的影响;根据旅华潜力影响公共因子进行聚类分析的结果显示,我国21个主要客源国聚合为5大类,总体上旅华率与其出境旅游率相比还处于较低水平;短期内我国入境游客源国的开发重点应该是3～5类客源国。     

自动气象站维修保障能力评估

自动气象站的设备故障及技术保障水平影响着其运行效能的发挥。基于综合气象观测系统运行监控平台(ASOM)中运行的2400多套国家级自动站,通过调研各型号自动站厂家备件以及22个省(区)2007—2008年国家级自动气象站故障信息和维修数据,统计平均故障维修时间和平均故障持续时间等量化指标,对自动站的维修保障能力进行了综合评估,并对自动站故障部位、故障原因进行了统计分类,从而为实现统一的故障管理、提高技术保障能力、促进自动气象站维修保障能力评估自动化与标准化奠定基础。     

气象计量实验室能力验证实施

针对气象计量检定机构在组织和参加实验室间比对活动中在编制比对方案、参考值来源、结果评价方法、粗大误差的剔除、比对报告编制等方面的内容进行分析,探讨气象计量实验室能力。通过开展气象计量实验室间的比对工作,确立气象计量检定机构在社会上的专业计量检定地位,确保各计量标准量值的准确、可靠、一致,也为考察各实验室计量检定人员技术水平和数据处理能力,发现问题、积累经验,更好地开展气象计量检定工作,可以识别与同行各机构之间存在的差异,发现自身存在的问题,为自身的持续改进和质量管理提供信息。