良渚时期文化发展与海平面变化

浙沪苏地区良渚考古资料和海平面变化研究表明,良渚文化的兴、盛、衰与5.5-4 ka B.P.期间海平面升降密切关联。5.5-4.9 ka B.P.,浙沪苏地区海平面处于高海面之后的急剧下降期,降幅约3.9 m,陆地生存空间扩大,加之气候温暖,良渚文化开始兴起,良渚人择高地而居,盛行干栏式建筑,遗址分布相对分散,从事稻作农业生产。4.9-4.3 ka B.P.,浙沪苏地区进入低海面时期,良渚文化发展达到鼎盛,遗址数量增多,分布相对集中,并向外围地区扩展。此时气候干凉,水井大量出现、盛行地面建筑、稻作农业和手工业发展,社会等级分化,揭示出低海面促进了良渚文化的繁荣。4.3-4 ka B.P.,海平面回升,渐渐进入又一高海面时期,良渚先民生存空间缩小,文化分布范围相对压缩,且以台墩和坡地建筑为主,遗址数量较中期减少,海面回升的同时,洪涝灾害,异常降温等灾变加速了良渚文化的衰落。总体来讲,5.3-4.0 ka B.P.期间“海面下降-低海面-海面回升”的过程推动了良渚文化由兴起到繁盛再到衰落的演替过程。     

青海高原地区近250 a来年平均气温变化及突变分析

用多条树轮重建的青海高原近250 a平均气温序列,利用线性趋势、小波变换分析和突变检测等方法对近250 a青海高原年平均气温的年际变化及突变特征进行了综合分析,结果表明:250多a来青海高原年平均气温波动明显,30 a滑动平均表现出1779～1811年和1934～2006年年平均气温偏高,其中年平均气温最高出现在1998年为1.3℃,1741～1778年和1812～1933年年平均气温偏低,其中年平均气温最低出现在1823年为-1.5℃,年气温总体呈上升趋势;在20 a以上相对大尺度上,年平均气温冷、暖交替的特征明显,经历了7个冷、暖交替阶段,在2～3 a,28 a左右,48 a和110 a时间尺度上的周期变化都比较明显。     

CMIP5模式对南海SST的模拟和预估

分析了32个CMIP5模式对南海历史海表温度(SST)的模拟能力和不同排放情景下未来SST变化的预估。通过检验各气候模式对南海历史SST增温趋势和均方差的模拟,发现大部分模式都能较好地模拟出南海20世纪历史SST的基本特征和变化规律,但也有部分模式的模拟存在较大偏差。尽管这些模拟偏差较大的模式对SST多模式集合平均的影响不大,但会增加未来情景预估的不确定性。剔除15个模式后,分析了南海SST在RCP26、RCP45和RCP85三种排放情景下的变化趋势,发现在未来百年呈明显的增温趋势,多模式集合平均的增温趋势分别为0.42、1.50和3.30℃/(100a)。这些增温趋势在空间上变化不大,但随时间并不是均匀变化的。在前两种排放情景下,21世纪前期的增温趋势明显强于后期,而在RCP85情景下,21世纪后期的增温趋势强于前期。     

用振幅变化长短时均值比实现地震预警中P波自动拾取

地震P波到时快速、精确的自动拾取是实现地震预警的第一步。目前所有P波到时自动拾取方法都需要进一步考虑准确度问题,据此提出用"振幅变化"长短时均值比方法拾取P波到时。研究表明引进"振幅变化"作为特征函数比Allen的"振幅变化平方"更能突显地震波初至时刻的"突变"特征。对"振幅变化长短时均值比方法"和Allen的"振幅变化平方长短时均值比方法"进行抗噪音分析表明,在较低信噪比条件下,Allen方法不能准确地拾取P波到时,而新方法依然能较准确地拾取P波到时。在较高信噪比条件下,用两种方法拾取的160个M_S4.0地震P波到时,其误差大都在允许范围内,但新方法拾取的准确度略高。新方法可以看做是对长短时均值比方法的拓展。     

长株潭地区农业功能的时空变化特征及发展策略研究

以长株潭地区23个县市区为研究区域,分别从农产品供给功能、就业和社会保障功能、生态保育功能、文化传承和休闲功能构建评价指标体系,综合运用熵值法、多指标综合评价法和农业功能变化的时空差异诊断模型等方法对长株潭地区1998~2014年农业功能的时空动态变化特征进行研究,根据各地区功能特征提出农业功能发展调控策略。研究结果表明：① 长株潭地区农产品供给功能有大幅提升,其重心有向外进一步扩散趋势;长株潭地区核心区域劳动力就业与社会保障功能下降幅度较大;大围山、罗霄山脉等山地丘陵区生态保育功能优势进一步凸显;文化传承和休闲功能部分区域获得进一步发展,但空间变化差异较小。② 研究发现不同区域农业主导功能不同,根据各地区农业功能不同优势特征,结合自身特色因地制宜发展优势农业并提出相应的优化调控对策,从而为长株潭地区农业多功能发展与功能特征的识别及确定提供理论依据。     

US institutional pathways to clean coal and shale gas: lessons for China

China's 12th Five-Year Plan (2011–2015) envisages that shale gas and coal will be central to its energy future. However, for China to meet the energy security and climate change objectives set out in its 12th Five-Year Plan it will be reliant on the widespread commercial deployment of two key technologies; hydraulic fracturing combined with horizontal drilling for shale gas, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) for coal. China is moving to acquire these technologies through technology transfer and diffusion from the US, but progress has been slow, and neither is currently available in China on a commercial scale. Drawing on interviews in the US and China, this article argues that China's expectation of technology from the US may well be disappointed because of factors unique to the US institutional environment that have made the development of fracking technology possible and hinder the development of CCS technology at a commercial scale.

Policy relevance

If China is to meet the energy security and climate change objectives set out in its 12th Five-Year Plan it will be reliant on the widespread commercial deployment of fracking and clean coal technologies. While China expects to acquire these technologies via technology transfer and diffusion from the US, progress has been slow. Because of factors unique to the US institutional environment the availability of both technologies on a commercial scale in China is unlikely in the coming years. As a result, Chinese policy makers would be well-advised not to count on these technologies to meet their energy and climate goals.     

Climate change and groundwater resources in Cambodia

Climate change has become a major global concern and threatens the security of natural environmental resources, including groundwater, especially for Cambodia. In this study, literature reviews related to climate change and groundwater resources in Cambodia were evaluated to address the impact of climate change on the groundwater environment. In Cambodia, global climate change will likely affect available water resources by driving changes in the groundwater recharge and usage pattern. Despite a general increase in the mean annual rainfall, a reduction in rainfall is anticipated during the dry season, which could lead to shortages of fresh water during the dry season. The impact of climate change on water resource environments can significantly affect national economic development. Thus, strategic management plansfor groundwater in response to climate change should be established to ensure the security of water resources in Cambodia.     

甘肃白银厂折腰山VMS矿床蚀变带元素迁移及定量计算

折腰山矿床是甘肃省白银厂矿田内最典型的火山成因块状硫化物(VMS)矿床,赋矿围岩主要为奥陶纪石英角斑凝灰岩,属于FⅡ类流纹岩,为弧后环境的产物,在海底对流循环成矿作用过程中,遭受强烈的热液改造,形成了多种类型的蚀变。文章将折腰山矿床蚀变围岩分为弱蚀变带→绢云母硅化带→绿泥石化带→矿化带,利用蚀变趋势图解和质量迁移计算等方法,定量揭示了热液蚀变过程中元素的迁移规律。研究表明:①从弱蚀变带→矿化带,蚀变强度逐渐增大,主量元素P、Mn有一定活动性,二者的迁移量分别为-8.8%～8.8%和-1.8%～9.9%,但迁移趋势不规律;Si迁移量变化范围较大,为-16.2%～83.73%;Na、Ca、Sr大量迁出,其中Na、Ca最大迁出量分别可达-3.11%和-2.71%;Mg、Fe依次迁入,并在绿泥石化带中达到最大值9.49%和69.73%;K在绢云母化带中迁入量出现峰值1.6%,其后逐渐迁出,最大可达-2.22%;Rb的迁移行为与K一致;②高场强元素Nb、Ta、Zr、Hf等在热液蚀变过程中相对保持惰性;Al、Ti及Y表现为弱活动性;③主要成矿元素Cu随蚀变强度的增大,其迁入量有递增的趋势,Pb、Zn在矿化带中迁入,其余各带均为迁出;④热液活动过程中,SiO_2活化再沉淀,形成硅化蚀变;K的迁入形成绢云母化,并消耗了H~+,使热液酸度减小;Mg、Fe的迁入在还原环境下形成绿泥石化,并伴随金属硫化物的沉淀。因此,折腰山矿床中的绿泥石化可能是导致矿质发生沉淀的重要蚀变作用,其在勘查工作中可以作为寻找VMS矿体的重要标志。     

Sensitivity of the Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration to sunshine duration in the Upper Mekong River Basin

Sensitivity analysis is important in understanding the relationship between sunshine duration (SD) and reference evapotranspiration (ET_ref). This study was developed in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin using a non-dimensional relative sensitivity coefficient (S_N) relating ET_ref to SD. The S_N for January and July for each station were calculated. The results indicate that (a) the SD and S_N change in similar ways, where January and July are selected as two representative time slices; (b) the spatial distributions of the long-term averaged S_N for January and July are the reverse of each other; (c) the most abrupt changes in climate occur in the 1980s and the middle region is sensitive to climate change; and (d) periodicities of 2–4 and 14–16 years are detected in the basin generally. The significant increase of inter-decadal filter variance indicates changes in the long-term memory of the local climate system.

EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz

ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

A review on statistical models for identifying climate contributions to crop yields

Statistical models using historical data on crop yields and weather to calibrate relatively simple regression equations have been widely and extensively applied in previous studies, and have provided a common alternative to process-based models, which require extensive input data on cultivar, management, and soil conditions. However, very few studies had been conducted to review systematically the previous statistical models for indentifying climate contributions to crop yields. This paper introduces three main statistical methods, i.e., time-series model, cross-section model and panel model, which have been used to identify such issues in the field of agrometeorology. Generally, research spatial scale could be categorized into two types using statistical models, including site scale and regional scale (e.g. global scale, national scale, provincial scale and county scale). Four issues exist in identifying response sensitivity of crop yields to climate change by statistical models. The issues include the extent of spatial and temporal scale, non-climatic trend removal, colinearity existing in climate variables and non-consideration of adaptations. Respective resolutions for the above four issues have been put forward in the section of perspective on the future of statistical models finally.