A cellular model of Holocene upland river basin and alluvial fan evolution

The CAESAR (Cellular Automaton Evolutionary Slope And River) model is used to simulate the Holocene development of a small upland catchment (4·2 km²) and the alluvial fan at its base. The model operates at a 3 m grid scale and simulates every flood over the last 9200 years, using a rainfall record reconstructed from peat bog wetness indices and land cover history derived from palynological sources. Model results show that the simulated catchment sediment discharge above the alluvial fan closely follows the climate signal, but with an increase in the amplitude of response after deforestation. The important effects of sediment storage and remobilization are shown, and findings suggest that soil creep rates may be an important control on long term (>1000 years) temperate catchment sediment yield. The simulated alluvial fan shows a complex and episodic behaviour, with frequent avulsions across the fan surface. However, there appears to be no clear link between fan response and climate or land use changes suggesting that Holocene alluvial fan dynamics may be the result of phases of sediment storage and remobilization, or instabilities and thresholds within the fan itself. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A model of equilibrium bed topography for meander bends with erodible banks

Channel curvature produces secondary currents and a transverse sloping channel bed, along which the depth increases towards the outer bank. As a result deep pools tend to form adjacent to the outer bank, promoting bank collapse. The interaction of sediment grains with the primary and secondary flow and the transverse sloping bed also causes meanders to move different grain sizes in different proportions and directions, resulting in a consistent sorting pattern. Several models have been developed to describe this process, but they all have the potential to over‐predict pool depth because they cannot account for the influence of erodible banks. In reality, bank collapse might lead to the development of a wider, shallower cross‐section and any resulting flow depth discrepancy can bias associated predictions of flow, sediment transport, and grain‐size sorting. While bed topography, sediment transport and grain sorting in bends will partly be controlled by the sedimentary characteristics of the bank materials, the magnitude of this effect has not previously been explored. This paper reports the development of a model of flow, sediment transport, grain‐size sorting, and bed topography for river bends with erodible banks. The model is tested via intercomparison of predicted and observed bed topography in one low‐energy (5·3 W m^?2 specific stream power) and one high‐energy (43·4 W m^?2) study reach, namely the River South Esk in Scotland and Goodwin Creek in Mississippi, respectively. Model predictions of bed topography are found to be satisfactory, at least close to the apices of bends. Finally, the model is used in sensitivity analyses that provide insight into the influence of bank erodibility on equilibrium meander morphology and associated patterns of grain‐size sorting. The sensitivity of meander response to bank cohesion is found to increase as a function of the available stream power within the two study bends. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1999年台湾7.6级大震与江苏-南黄海地区中强震预测

分析讨论了台湾地区7级大震与本区中强震之间相关关系，指出1999年台湾7.6级大震后2－3年内，本区将有5－6级中强震发生。同时应用可公度模型和“带头地震”的异年倍九法联合对本区中强震发震时间进行分析预测。结论表明，该方法可以较好地应用于本区短临地震预报实践。     

利用卫星云图估算黄河中游地区平均面雨量

介绍了利用卫星云图资料估算黄河中游面雨量的基本方法：将GMS卫星1h间隔的可风和红外云图作为判别的两个特性进行分类，确定红外光线资料的所有最小值点作为对流核；多参照Negri-Adler的方法，应用斜率参数消除卷云；应用－维云模式确定红外线图上对流核的降水率，层状云降水通过一个温度阈值给出。另外，通过2001年7月26日至28日黄河流域出现的一次较强降雨过程进行应用分析，得出结论－－利用卫星云图估算黄河中游地区平均雨量的方法具有很好的实用价值。     

人类活动对黄河中游高含沙水流的影响

以黄河中游干流和渭河、无定河的资料研究了人类活动对黄土高原河流高含沙水流的发生频率的影响。人类破坏森林植被，大量拦截黄河上游清水来源区的清水基流，使得高含沙水流发生频率增大，大规模水土保持措施的实施则使高含沙水流发生频率迅速减小。近50年来黄河干流和一些支流的高含沙水流随时间的变化可以用一个三阶段模式来概括，即20世纪50-60年代，由于人类破坏植被，使高含水流频率增大；20世纪60年代末至80年代中期，大规模水土保持措施的实施使高含沙水流发生的频率减小；20世纪80年代末期以来，人类大量拦截利用清水资源，使高含沙水流的发生频率又复增大。     

4280 a B.P.太行山大地震与大禹治水后(4070a B.P.)的黄河下游河道

我国古籍所载黄河下游最早河道有禹贡河和山经河，它们在今郑州以北均沿太行山东麓北流。其原因可能与公元前4280年太行山大地震有关。     

黄河中游降雨特性对泥沙粒径的影响

以黄河中游36个有泥沙粒径资料的水文测站流域为样本，在不同自然地理类型流域划分的基础上，建立了流域泥沙粒径特片与降雨特性的关系。结果表明，在不同类型流域，流域泥沙的粗细与降雨季节性变率和年际变率之间存在着相当好的线性正相关关系；而与年降雨量和降雨不均匀系数之间呈明显的非线性关系。流域地面物质、植被和地貌发育程序等下垫面环境因素对泥沙粒径特性与降雨特性之间关系起着十分重要的控制作用。不同类型流域曲线的斜率各不相同，在图中所处的位置也不相同。     

基于DEM的分布式水文模型构建方法

基于 DEM的分布式水文模型是现代水文学同高科技 (如计算机技术、 3S技术等 )相结合的产物 ,是研究变化环境下水文循环与水资源演化规律的理想工具 ,代表了水文模型的最新发展方向。从 DEM的特性出发 ,本文探讨并总结了分布式水文模型的特点、建模思路和模型基本结构框图。在流域离散化方面 ,重点介绍了分布式水文模型常用的三种单元划分方法 ;最后 ,针对分布式水文模型构建问题 ,从“输入模块”、“单元水文模型”、“河网汇流模型”三方面 ,阐述了分布式水文模型微结构构建方法。     

21世纪黄河系统工程方略

该文指出 :王化云的治黄思想 ,“上拦下排、两岸分滞、蓄水拦沙、宽河固堤、除害兴利、综合利用” ,实际上是治理黄河的系统工程 ,2 1世纪应该继承和发展黄河系统工程的方略。黄河地处中国腹地 ,是中华民族的摇篮 ,当今高新科技的发展 ,足以从更大的范围 ,以全国的水资源、土资源为核心来考虑黄河的建设。统一计算水资源中的大气水、地表水、地下水、壤中水、生态水、环境水、生产水、生活水 ;统一计算土资源中的土壤资源、沙资源、沙石资源 ,真正按照地理系统工程来建设黄河。     

3S一体化技术支持下的西南地区冬小麦估产——以安宁河谷四县为例

农作物遥感估产已经是广泛应用的技术 ,但由于西南地区复杂的地貌类型以及遥感信息源等因素的限制 ,农作物估产方面的研究起步较晚 ,因而研究山区的农作物遥感估产对西南地区有重要的理论价值和现实意义。安宁河谷为一南北走向的山间盆地 ,是四川省第二大粮食生产基地。本文运用遥感 (RemoteSensing)、地理信息系统 (GIS)和全球定位系统(GPS)———简称 3S ,采取全数字式判读方式提取冬小麦的播种面积 ,进行野外点、线采样 ,并利用数理统计方法 ,建立了该地区的冬小麦估产模型