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Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for water resources carrying capacity in Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China

This paper explores the method of comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity and sets up an evaluation model applying the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Based on the data of nature, society, economics and water resources of the Tarim River Basin in 2002, we evaluated the water resources carrying capacity of the basin by means of the model. The results show that the comprehensive grades are 0.438 and 0.454 for Aksu and Kashi prefectures respectively, where the current water resources exploitation and utilization has reached a relative high degree and there is only a very limited water carrying capacity, 0.620 for Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture, where water resources carrying capacity is much higher, and in between for Hotan Prefecture and Bayingolin Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture. As a whole, the comprehensive grade of the Tarim River Basin is 0.508 and the current water resources exploitation and utilization has reached a relative high degree. Thus, we suggest that the integrated management of the water resources in the basin should be strengthened in order to utilize water resources scientifically and sustainably.     

Livelihood strategy change and land use change —Case of Danzam Village in upper Dadu River watershed, Tibetan Plateau of China

Land use change in rural China since the 1980s, induced by institution reforms, urbanization, industrialization and population increase, has received more attention. However, case studies on how institution reforms affect farmers’ livelihood strategies and drive land use change are scarce. By means of cropland plots investigations and interviews with farmers, this study examines livelihood strategy change and land use change in Danzam Village of Jinchuan County in the upper Dadu River watershed, eastern Tibetan Plateau, China. The results show that, during the collective system period, as surplus labor forces could not be transferred to the secondary and tertiary industries, they had to choose agricultural involution as their livelihood strategy, then the farmers had to produce more grains by land reclamation, increasing multiple cropping index, improving input of labor, fertilizer, pesticide and adopting advanced agricultural techniques. During the household responsibility system period, as labors being transferred to the secondary and tertiary industries, farmers chose livelihood diversification strategy. Therefore, labor input to grain planting was greatly reduced, which drove the transformation of grain to horticulture, vegetable or wasteland and decrease of multiple cropping index. This study provides a new insight into understanding linkages among institution reforms, livelihood strategy of smallholders and land use change in rural China. Foundation item: Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40601006, 40471009), National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2005CB422006)     

Adaptation management of mountain tourism service: the case of the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow River

Mountain areas are often rich in ecological diversity and recreational opportunities. Mountain tourism is thought to be an effective and important means for maintaining and expanding rural economies and, thus, improving the living conditions of rural societies. As mountain tourism service research is a professional field with several disciplines involved, a multi-disciplinary management pIatform is needed and it facilitates participation in sustainable mountain development by diverse stakeholders. With the source regions of the Yangtze and the Yellow River as a case study, this paper presents a conceptual framework for an adaptation management of mountain tourism services according to technical, policy, social and economic dimensions. The framework is based on a vulnerability assessment of mountain ecosystems, and can serve as a reference for the development of tourism service in other mountain areas.     

黄河三角洲湿地景观格局动态变化分析

在RS和GIS技术的支持下,以黄河三角洲1986,1996,2006年的三期TM影像为数据源,利用遥感图像处理软件对近代黄河三角洲湿地信息进行了提取.借助于地理信息系统软件和景观生态学软件,我们对20年来黄河三角洲湿地景观格局的动态变化,以及影响其格局动态变化的驱动力进行了分析.结果表明:(1)近20年来,人工湿地面积有了大幅度的增加,而天然湿地的比重在降低.其中,滩涂和柽柳灌草丛景观明显萎缩.(2)一些重要的景观格局指数的计算结果表明,20世纪90年代以来,黄河三角洲湿地景观斑块个数、香农多样性指数、香农均匀度指数一直在增加.黄河三角洲湿地景观的破碎化程度在加剧,斑块类型更加多样化,湿地景观中没有明显的优势类型且各斑块类型在景观中均匀分布.(3)湿地与湿地、湿地与非湿地之间发生着类型转化.其中,18.1%的芦苇草甸转化为农田;26.6%的翅碱蓬草甸转化为盐田;11.9%的芦苇沼泽转化为芦苇草甸.(4)在黄河三角洲湿地演化的过程中,受到自然和人为方面演化驱动力的共同作用.其中,自然因素主要有:黄河断流、泥沙淤积和自身演替动力等.人为驱动力主要为农田开垦、滩涂的开发与围垦、油田开发和人工建筑等.     

Effect of Penetration Rates on the Piezocone Penetration Test in the Yellow River Delta Silt

Partial drainage often occurs during piezocone penetration testing on Yellow River Delta silt because of its intermediate physical and mechanical properties between those of sand and clay.Yet,there is no accurate understanding for the range of penetra-tion rates to trigger the partial drainage of silt soils.In order to fully investigate cone penetration rate effects under partial drainage condi-tions,indoor 1 g penetration model tests and numerical simulations of cavity expansion at variable penetration rates were carried out on the Yellow River Delta silt.The boundary effect of the model tests and the variation of key parameters at the different cavity ex-pansion rates were analyzed.The 1 g penetration model test results and numerical simulations results consistently indicated that the penetration rate to trigger the partially drainage of typical silt varied at least three orders of magnitude.The numerical simulations also provide the reference values for the penetration resistance corresponding to zero dilation and zero viscosity at any given normalized penetration rate for silt in Yellow River Delta.These geotechnical properties can be used for the design of offshore platforms in Yel-low River Delta,and the understanding of cone penetration rate effects under the partially drained conditions would provide some technical support for geohazard evaluation of offshore platforms.     

黄河流域人口预期寿命的时空演化及影响因素分析

健康人力资本对社会经济发展有重要的促进作用。以黄河流域71个地级行政单元为研究对象,利用变异系数、泰尔指数、空间自相关模型等方法,研究该流域人口预期寿命的时空演化特征,并根据地理探测器分析其影响因素。结果表明：(1) 2000—2019年,黄河流域人口预期寿命均值由69.99岁提升至76.96岁,整体呈上升趋势,但长期低于我国人口预期寿命均值;(2)人口预期寿命区域差异整体呈先增后降趋势,且地带间差异不断收敛,地带内差异与流域总体变化基本一致;(3)人口预期寿命存在明显空间集聚,但其空间自相关性不断减弱,且空间变化较大。具体而言,黄南藏族自治州、海南藏族自治州、甘南藏族自治州等藏区形成稳定性冷点区,山东省形成规模的稳定性热点区;(4)医疗卫生资源和自然条件对上游地区人口预期寿命影响最为显著;经济发展水平和环境污染对下游地区人口预期寿命解释力最强;教育水平是影响黄河流域各个地区人口预期寿命的重要因子。不同因子交互作用的解释力均高于单因子解释力,黄河流域人口预期寿命的空间差异是多因子共同作用的结果。     

未来黄、东海营养盐浓度变化情景预测

本文基于FGOALS(Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model)对未来气候情景的预测结果,结合千年生态评估的未来两个情景下的河流营养盐载荷特征,利用黄、东海水动力模型和生态模型并采用降尺度的方法对未来黄、东海营养盐的分布特征进行情景预测。结果表明,两个情景下未来河口邻近海区营养盐浓度将显著增加,富营养化加剧;GO(Global Orchestration)情景下,河流无机氮载荷增幅较大,夏季黄海中部无机氮浓度明显升高;AM(Adapting mosaic)情景下,由于河流无机磷载荷增幅较大,海区氮磷比有所下降,夏季黄海中部表层无机氮浓度降低,而在底层升高。通过敏感性实验并结合收支分析对各海区水动力条件未来变化、河流载荷变化的相对贡献进行了评估:相对于水温和水动力环境改变,河流营养盐排放量的增长是未来营养盐浓度增加的主要原因。营养盐收支分析表明,未来对流和混合输运的变化有助于黄海营养盐浓度的增加,夏季生物量升高造成更多碎屑沉降并在底层矿化使得层化季节冷水团底部营养盐浓度增长;长江口邻近海区营养盐浓度增长主要受冲淡水羽流的影响;净初级生产增加加剧了营养盐的消耗。     

滨海湿地不同密度柽柳林土壤调蓄水功能

为探求黄河三角洲湿地土壤调蓄水功能的合理柽柳林密度,采用测量土壤入渗过程和水分物理参数相结合的方法,对不同密度柽柳林的土壤蓄水功能和水分调节能力进行研究。结果表明:①柽柳林随密度的增大具有显著提高细砂粒和降低粉黏粒含量的作用;中密度林分降盐抑碱效应明显,各密度林分表层盐碱含量低于20~40 cm土层;②土壤容重随林分密度增大表现为先减小后增大,孔隙度状况则与之相反,中密度、高密度、草地总孔隙度均值分别比低密度林分高12.9%、6.2%、4.4%;对表层的改良效果好于20~40 cm土层;③Horton模型可较好地模拟柽柳林的土壤入渗过程,中密度林分渗透性能最好,高密度次之,低密度最差;④饱和蓄水量、吸持蓄水量、滞留蓄水量及涵蓄降水量均表现为中密度>高密度>草地>低密度,表土层的水分调蓄功能好于下层;中密度、高密度、草地涵蓄降水量分别比低密度林分高28.4%、23.8%、14.1%。中密度柽柳林具有巨大的水分调蓄空间,其次为高密度,而低密度林分较差。     

长江口地区地面沉降的深部动力学机制分析

地表变形、活动断裂和地球物理的综合分析表明,菲律宾洋壳向欧亚大陆的俯冲导致的地幔对流是控制中国东部沿海地区晚新生代以来构造作用的主导因素,是长江口地区地面沉降的主要深部动力学机制。由于地幔对流和青藏高原挤压共同作用导致的地壳热流值的差异则是长江口地区西部隆升、东部沉降且向东沉降速率增大的直接驱动力。预测未来长江口地区的基岩沉降范围将以>10cm/a的速率向西扩大,沉降速率将呈明显加速趋势,40000a之内上海市可能被海水淹没,但板块构造演化的“渐变”特征决定其对当地未来的人类活动不会造成显著影响。根据“地壳均衡理论”,建议在长江口南西部(浙江省北东部)的丘陵山区加大重力载荷如加快城市化进程或人工造山以减小和控制上海地区的沉降。