强震的孕育规律与孕震模式

针对强震能否预测以及如何预测的科学难题,建立孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,发现强震孕育过程的指数规律：sf（k）=1.48ksc,其中sf（k）和sc分别为第k个锁固体断裂点与第一个锁固段膨胀起点对应的累加Be-nioff应变,可以利用锁固段在其变形膨胀点处开始发生的震群事件（加速性地震活动前兆）预测未来大震,并给出了强震四要素相关预测方法。通过对诸多历史强震（如邢台地震、海城地震、汶川地震、玉树地震等）的回溯性检验分析表明：强震可以预测,且其孕震过程都遵循着上述简单的共性力学规律。在此基础上,归纳出4种典型强震的孕震模式,即大震震级呈＂大—小—大＂型,大震震级呈连续上升型,锁固段快速连续破裂型与标准型。此外,根据相关强震预测理论方法,对有关抗震救灾未来研究的方向提出如下建议：建议加强活动断裂位置精确定位、性质判定的地震地质研究,并开展孕震区锁固段（闭锁区域）判识的地质与地球物理研究等。     

Estimation of causative fault parameters of the Rudbar earthquake of June 20, 1990 from near field SH-wave data

We analyze the strong motion accelerograms recorded for the large (M_S=7.7, M_W=7.3, m_b=6.4) Rudbar earthquake of June 20, 1990. The earthquake had a complex source process. We have identified the imprints of rupture of three localized asperities on the major causative fault on the accelerograms. These asperities are interpreted to correspond to (i) the main shock that initiated the rupture process and was located in the domino block between the Kabateh and Zard Goli faults, (ii) a foreshock that occurred about 10 s earlier in the Kabateh fault and (iii) a later shock, on the western end of the Baklor fault, which terminated the bilateral rupture process at the western end. We estimate the strike, dip and slip of these causative sub-event rupture planes using the SH spectral amplitudes, based on a point source representation of sub-events and a non-linear least square formulation for inversion of the amplitude data. The results of our inversion of the near field data are comparable to other studies based on teleseismic data.     

Blind prediction of the site effects at Ashigara Valley,Japan, and its comparison with reality

Weak and strong ground motions were numerically predicted for three stations of the Ashigara Valley test site. The prediction was based on the records from a rock-outcrop station, one weak-motion record from a surface-sediments station, and the standard geotechnical model. The data were provided by the Japanese Working Group on the Effects of Surface Geology as a part of an international experiment. The finite-difference method for SH waves in a 2-D linear viscoelastic medium (a causalQ model) was employed.Comparison with the real records shows that at two stations the predictions fit better than at the third one. Strangely, the two better predictions were for stations situated at larger distances from the reference rock station (one station was on the surface, the other in a borehole). The strong ground motion (the peak acceleration of about 200 cm s^–2) was not predicted qualitatively worse than the weak motion (8 cm s^–2). A less sophisticated second prediction (not submitted during the experiment), in which we did not attempt to fit the available weak-motion record at the sedimentary station, agrees with the reality significantly better.     

汶川地震映秀-北川地表破裂带虹口乡段精细填图、位移特征和地震构造分析

同震地表破裂带是地震破裂最直观的表现。地表破裂带的精细填图对理解地震破裂过程及发震机理有着重要意义。我们对5.12汶川地震映秀-北川同震破裂带南部的虹口乡区段开展了较为精细的填图工作,该区段地表破裂带的平面几何和同震位移特征沿走向均显示出公里尺度的横向变化和复杂性。根据同震破裂不连续性特征可把地表破裂分为4段,自南向北依次为深溪沟段、庙坝段、高原新村段和八角庙段。其中,深溪沟段和八角庙段同震垂直位错较大,达.5～6m;庙坝段同震垂直位移量普遍较低,1～2m或更低;  在高原新村附近,地表破裂带分为近平行的南北两支,北支以右旋走滑为主,南支以南东盘逆冲抬升为主,这与与映秀-北川同震破裂总体北西盘抬升的性质相反。本文对高原新村附近的反向陡坎进行了深入的探讨,并综合前人的研究结果,认为是破裂在从深部往上扩展的过程中,在浅表部位顺着发育在虹口东南部的大鱼洞-龙溪飞来峰后缘的具南东倾向的断面继承而成。与北川沙坝附近的反向陡坎一样,说明老断裂带构造几何特征对单次地震破裂的扩展有牵引作用。最后,讨论了八角庙有切割关系的两组断层擦痕的地震学和地质学意义,指出可能指示了映秀-北川断裂面上局部区段震前的初始应力水平较低。     

地下资源开采与诱发地震：现状与进展

页岩气、地热等清洁能源正成为全球能源开发日益重要的组成部分,也是我国未来能源产量增长的主体,对保障能源资源安全、支撑双碳目标意义重大。然而随着页岩气、地热等地下工业开采活动规模的不断扩大,由此引发的地震灾害问题正日益受到人们的关注。强化工业活动与诱发地震关系研究、管控相关诱发地震灾害风险成为全球面临的重要课题和挑战。基于此,笔者等调研了工业活动诱发地震的全球典型案例,系统介绍了不同国家(美国、加拿大和韩国)工业活动诱发地震的现状及其差异,并对流体注入诱发地震的主要途径、物理机制、相关作业参数和诱发地震关系等做了全面的综述。发现诱发地震不仅与流体注入参数(体积、速率等)相关,还受控于特定的区域地质背景和断裂条件。合理管控地震灾害风险、促进相关能源的开采,应该统筹开采区地质地球物理的综合调查和开采过程的动态监测。     

基于动态重力信息的地震前兆与强震短临预报

地震预报是当今世界尚未破解的重大科技难题,短临地震预报是地震预报的难点,有效的前兆信息则是短临预报的关键。笔者围绕短临地震预报难题,研制了高精度动态固体潮汐重力仪和大气潮汐重力仪,成功捕获到2010～2023年间的玉树7.1级地震、土耳其7.8级地震等震前几十个小时的动态重力场变化信息。这些信息再现了强震孕育–发生的过程,初步揭示短临阶段“基本稳定→闭锁蓄能→震前平静→能量释放”的强震物理机制,可作为短临地震预报的前兆信息。为实现对短临地震“时−空−强”的准确预报,提出通过动态重力场变化组网观测和分布式前兆信息数据库建设,进一步揭示不同类型地震的动态重力信号响应规律,建立强震发生概率、时间、震中位置及震级预报模型的可行性路径,渴望破解强震短临预报的世界难题。     

汶川5.12地震发震机理的数值模拟

将围岩看成弹性体, 断层看成具有应变软化的弹塑性体, 断层和围岩组成统一的地质介质系统。在给定的地应力、孔隙压力及边界位移的作用下, 应力逐渐积累, 当达到断层强度时, 断层进入塑性状态, 应变随之软化, 应力突然下降, 能量突然释放, 形成地震。根据这个原理, 利用有限差分FLAC软件, 对汶川5.12地震的机理进行了模拟。模拟结果证实:汶川5.12地震是在青藏高原侧向挤压, 四川盆地阻挡, 使龙门山断裂带受到缓慢增加的挤压应力场作用下形成的。计算结果给出了应力降、能量释放量、断层错动量、地震同震位移、震前位移、地震复发周期等重要参数, 结果与野外调查及其它资料给出的数据具有较好的一致性。      

龙门山构造带南段向西南延伸的遥感影像证据及地震地质意义

在系统总结活动断裂遥感影像解译标志的基础上,利用Landsat ETM、Google Earth及ASTER GDEM等影像资料,结合前人研究成果,重点分析了龙门山构造带南段主要活动断裂的空间展布及几何学与运动学特征。研究结果表明,龙门山构造带在向南延伸过程中发生了明显的断裂分散现象,整个断裂带逐渐展宽,主要包括5条断裂带且其中包含多条次级断裂,至最南端被北西向鲜水河左旋走滑断裂带阻挡。其中活动性较为明显的断裂自西向东主要有4条:泸定断裂、天全断裂、芦山断裂和大邑-名山断裂,前两者是北川-映秀断裂的南延分支,而后两者是安县-灌县断裂的南延部分。由于龙门山构造带南段的构造变形被分解至多条次级断裂上,导致单条断裂错断地表的活动迹象明显变弱,因此单条断裂的潜在发震频率和强度也将相应变小,但潜在震源区会更为分散。结合已有的地震地质资料认为,未来应注意泸定和雅安2个地区的地壳稳定性及未来强震危险性问题。      

GIS支持下地震与活动断裂关系研究--以上海及邻近海域为例

以MAPGIS软件为基础平台 ,利用GIS缓冲区分析和空间叠加分析技术 ,研究上海及邻近海域地震与活动断裂的关系。研究区地震活动断裂的发育程度以继承性NE -NNE向为主 ,但其活动强度不及NW -NNW向及近EW向断裂 ;沿NW -NNW向及近EW向断裂两侧 ,中强地震发生频率明显高于NE -NNE向断裂 ;不同时代活动断裂与中强地震之间存在一定的联系 ,表现为随着断裂活动时代变新 ,断裂周围中强地震发生的频率升高。     

Analysis of the Chiufengershan landslide triggered by the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan

A disastrous earthquake rocked Taiwan on September 21, 1999, with magnitude M_L=7.3 and an epicenter near the small town of Chi-Chi in central Taiwan. The Chi-Chi earthquake triggered landslide on the dip slope at the Chiufengershan. In this study, a review of the topography and geology of this area was followed by field investigations. Laboratory testing was applied to understand the geomaterial composing the slope. Then, based on a series of limit equilibrium analyses, the failure mechanism of this landslide and the risk of the residual slope were studied.

According to the stability analyses, the pre-quake slope is quite stable, with factor of safety of 1.77 (dry) to 1.35 (full groundwater level); explaining why there is no written record of a landslide here for the past 100 years. In contrast, a back analysis shows that the Chi-Chi earthquake-induced dynamic loading is far more than the dip slope can sustain, due in part to the short distance to the epicenter. A Monte Carlo type probability analysis suggests that the residual slope is more dangerous than the pre-quake slope and needs more attention.