挑战与机遇：从三峡库区移民安置论工程地质的发展

三峡库区移民安置对工程地质提出了挑战。在十多年时间内,在复杂地质环境和大规模工程活动、水位上升１００多米条件下,要进行１２０万人口迁建,迫使工程地质学在理论、概念、方法、技术等方面进行新探索。在改造的基础上对不良地质体进行“开发利用”是三峡工程地质研究的主题。它要求：工程地质应该由传统的场址调查、勘察与评价的狭义范围拓展到工程地质体,特别是复杂地质体的改造、控制和开发利用的宽广领域。     

论过去资料在数值天气预报中使用的理论和方法

对中国气象学家在数值天气预报中使用过去实况演变资料的理论和方法作卫概要性总结,其中不仅讨论了近期实况演变资料的应用,还了积累数十年的历史资料的应用问题。文中强调要改变对数值预报问题的提法,回顾了由初值问题改为演变问题,再改为反问题的历史。     

Loads on a 3D body due to second-order waves and a current

Non-linear loads on a fixed body due to waves and a current are investigated. Potential theory is used to describe the flow, and a three-dimensional (3D) boundary element method (BEM), combined with a time-stepping procedure, is used to solve the problem. The exact free-surface boundary conditions are expanded about the still-water level by Taylor series so that the solution is evaluated on a time-invariant geometry. A formulation correct to second order in the wave steepness and to first order in the current speed is used. Numerical results are obtained for the first-order and the second-order oscillatory forces and for the second-order mean force on a fixed vertical circular cylinder in waves and a current. The second-order oscillatory forces on the body in waves and current are new results, while the remaining force components are verified by comparison with established numerical and analytical models. It is shown that the current can have a significant influence on the forces, and especially on the amplitude of the second-order oscillatory component.     

Anachronistic facies in the Lower Triassic of South China and their implications to the ecosystems during the recovery time

The end-Permian mass extinction not only severely distressed the Paleozoic ecosystems but also dramatically changed the sedimentary systems, resulting in a peculiar Early Triassic ecosystem and submarine environment during the recovery time following the mass extinction. The Lower Triassic is characteristic of the wide occurrence of various distinctive sediments and related sedimentary structures, such as flatpebble conglomerates, vermicular limestone, subtidal wrinkle structures, microbialite, carbonate seafloor fans, thin-bedded limestone and zebra limestone-mudstone. These sediments were common in the Precambrian to Early Ordovician marine settings, and then they occurred only in some extreme and unusual environments with the expansion of metazoan faunas. However, the Early Triassic witnessed an "anachronistic" reappearance of some distinctive sedimentary records in normal shallow marine settings. The study of these anachronistic facies should be of great importance for the understanding of the unique ecosystem and marine environment through the great Paleozoic-Mesozoic transition. The anachronistic facies characterized by vermicular limestone have been documented in many localities in South China and occur at various horizons of the Lower Triassic. Most types of re- ported distinctive sediments over the world have been observed in the Lower Triassic of South China. This provides an excellent opportunity for understanding the Early Triassic environment and its co- evolution with the biotic recovery. Among the anachronistic facies the vermicular limestone is the most characteristic and common distinctive sediments in the Lower Triassic of South China but has received relatively few investigations. Taking it as a case study, we will detail the variation of vermicular limestone and its stratigraphic distribution in the Three Gorges area, Hubei Province. The investigation on the vermicular limestone and other distinctive sediments from the Lower Triassic of South China further indicates that the appearance of anachronistic facies immediately following the mass extinction and the elimination from normal shallow marine facies with the radiation of Mesozoic marine faunas imply the natural response of the sedimentary systems and ecosystems to the great Paleozoic-Mesozoic transitional events and their induced harsh environments. Therefore, the ups and downs of the anachronistic facies may act as a proxy for the evolution of ecosystems independent of fossil analyses.     

对水库诱发地震的两点认识

本文重点论述了水库诱发地震所具有的2个突出特点：①诱发地震的强度和频度均高于当地天然地震的正常水平,世界上已经发生的4次6级以上破坏性地震甚至发生在历史地震活动的空白区;②岩溶地区水库可能因库水位的快速上升而使溶洞中封闭部分气体产生气爆型水库诱发地震,但气爆型地震震级（ML）仅为0．6,气爆震源只发生在浅地表处。三峡工程一期、二期蓄水诱发的地震群,其中ML0．6级以上地震占74％,ML1．0级以上地震占36％,震源深度在5—16km范围者占48％。ML2．1级地震的震源机制解显示为四象限分布,显示系水库诱发的构造地震。这对我国西部大规模水电开发有重要的启示意义。     

褶皱构造中的地震——2017年三峡库区巴东M4.3地震序列成因讨论

2017年巴东M4.3地震序列为一发生在褶皱构造翼部的地震活动.地震精定位结果显示,整个地震序列呈NE向展布,震源深度较浅,M4.3和M4.1地震的震源深度分别为3.8 km和2.4 km.地震序列表现出NW浅、SE深的特征.震源机制解反演结果表明,两次较大地震的发震节面走向NEE,倾向SE,运动性质为走滑.震中区断裂构造分析发现,没有与发震节面吻合的断裂构造.结合地震定位结果和地质剖面分析,M4.3地震发生在三叠系岩溶及裂隙发育的厚层灰岩中,而M4.1地震及大多数小震活动则主要发生在巴东组红层（软弱滑脱层）中.地震发生时,三峡水库正处于低水位腾库容期间,库水卸荷使得库区原来由于荷载压实作用产生的压应力出现了局部回弹,进而引起部分裂隙的扩张,造成部分裂隙发育的岩体发生失稳滑动.此外,裂隙的扩张也为流体的渗透扩散提供了有利通道.流体渗透扩散一方面使得孔隙压力增大,有效应力降低;另一方面则使得软弱地层发生软化泥化,使得岩体发生顺层或切层的失稳滑动,造成了地震的发生.     

Distribution of erosion intensity in the Jingjiang reach influenced by the Three Gorges Dam

Elucidation of the fluvial processes influenced by dams provides better understanding of river protection and basin management. However, less attention has been given to the erosion intensity distribution of riverbeds and its association with channel morphology and hydrological conditions. Based on hydrological and topographic data, the spatial and temporal distributions of erosion intensity (2002–2014) influenced by the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) were analyzed for the Jingjiang reach of the Yangtze River. The mechanisms underlying the distribution of erosion intensity in response to hydrological conditions were investigated. The results are as follows: (1) The erosion intensities of different discharges were not uniform, and moderate flow (10 000–27 000 m³/s) produced the largest erosion magnitude among all flow ranges. Owing to the hydrological changes caused by flood reduction and prolongation of moderate flow duration after the TGD began operating, up to 70% of the erosion amount was caused by moderate flows. (2) The lateral distribution of erosion intensity was extremely uneven, as the proportion of cumulative erosion of the low‐flow channel within the bankfull channel reached 88% in 2013. This caused the channel to become narrower and deeper. (3) The longitudinal distribution of erosion intensity was inhomogeneous. The erosion intensity in the wide reaches was greater than that in the narrow reaches, leading to smaller differences in channel morphology along the river. (4) Changes in hydrological conditions influenced by the TGD, significant reduction of sediment concentration along with flood abatement, and increased duration of moderate flow discharges were the main factors affecting erosion distribution in the post‐dam period. Our conclusions can be applied to the Yangtze River as a basis for riverbed change estimations, and river management strategies. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological uncertainty processor based on a copula function

Quantifying the uncertainty in hydrological forecasting is valuable for water resources management and decision-making processes. The hydrological uncertainty processor (HUP) can quantify hydrological uncertainty and produce probabilistic forecasts under the hypothesis that there is no input uncertainty. This study proposes a HUP based on a copula function, in which the prior density and likelihood function are explicitly expressed, and the posterior density and distribution obtained using Monte Carlo sampling. The copula-based HUP was applied to the Three Gorges Reservoir, and compared with the meta-Gaussian HUP. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and relative error were used as evaluation criteria for deterministic forecasts, while predictive QQ plot, reliability, resolution and continuous rank probability score (CRPS) were used for probabilistic forecasts. The results show that the proposed copula-based HUP is comparable to the meta-Gaussian HUP in terms of the posterior median forecasts, and that its probabilistic forecasts have slightly higher reliability and lower resolution compared to the meta-Gaussian HUP. Based on the CRPS, both HUPs were found superior to deterministic forecasts, highlighting the effectiveness of probabilistic forecasts, with the copula-based HUP marginally better than the meta-Gaussian HUP.     

Using ANNs to analyse effects of the Three Gorges Dam on sedimentation in Dongting Lake,China

Since a river system is a unidirectional network, the upstream influencing factors often interfere with those downstream. We quantify the effects of the TGD on the sediment exchange processes between the Yangtze River and Dongting Lake. Based on yearly sediment load data from 1981 to 2008, two multi-layer perceptron (MLP) models were constructed to predict the potential sedimentation in Dongting Lake without implementation of the TGD. The sediment discharge at Yichang station decreased from 622.5 to 61.1 Mt/year between 1981–1985 and 2003–2008, while the sedimentation in Dongting Lake reduced from 127.3 to 6.6 Mt/year. The MLP models indicate that only 27.9% of the decreased sediment load at Yichang station and 16.9% of that in Dongting Lake is caused by the TGD, while the rest is caused mostly by other upstream climate variations and anthropogenic impacts.

EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITORN. Ilich     

Geomorphic response of the Jingjiang Reach to the Three Gorges Project operation

Upstream damming often causes significant downstream geomorphic adjustments. Remarkable channel changes have occurred in the Jingjiang Reach of the Middle Yangtze River, since the onset of the Three Gorges Project (TGP). Therefore, it is important to investigate the variations in different fluvial variables, for better understanding of the channel evolution characteristics as an example of the Jingjiang Reach. Recent geomorphic adjustments in the study reach have been investigated quantitatively, including variations in sediment rating curve, fluvial erosion intensity, channel deformation volume and bankfull channel geometry. These fluvial variables adjusted in varying degrees in response to the altered flow and sediment regime caused by the TGP operation. A focus of this study has been especially on variation in the bankfull channel geometry. Calculated bankfull dimensions at section‐ and reach‐scale indicate that: (i) there were significant bank‐erosion processes in local regions without bank‐protection engineering, with empirical relations being developed to reproduce the variation in bankfull widths at four typical sections; (ii) the variation in the reach‐scale channel geometry occurred mainly in the component of bankfull depth, owing to the construction of large‐scale bank‐revetment works, with the depth increasing from 13.7 m in 2002 to 15.0 m in 2014, and with an increase in the corresponding bankfull area of about 11%; and (iii) the reach‐scale bankfull channel dimensions responded to the previous 5‐year average fluvial erosion intensity during flood seasons at Zhicheng, with higher correlations for the depth and area being obtained when calibrated by the measurements in 2002–2012. Furthermore, these relations developed for the section‐ and reach‐scale bankfull channel geometry were also verified by the observed data in 2013–2014, with encouraging results being obtained. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.