Optimum Sample Size to Detect Perturbation Effects: The Importance of Statistical Power Analysis – A Critique

Abstract. The current article describes statistical power analysis as an efficient strategy for the estimation of the optimum sample size. The principle aim is constructively to criticise and enrich the results presented by Mouillot et al. (1999) , who estimate the optimum sample size for evaluating possible perturbations. The authors did not make any reference to statistical power analysis, even though their objective clearly went beyond a simple stock evaluation to assess management strategies in a particular marine ecosystem. Surprisingly, they proposed (a priori) an ANOVA design to test a hypothesis considering both space and temporal scales. However, the authors did not cover important topics related with power analysis and the precautionary principle, both used into environment impact assessment programmes for marine ecosystems. Based on their results and on statistical power analysis, it is demonstrated that the variability (dispersion statistics), a key factor they used to estimate the sample size, is less relevant than the magnitude of perturbation (effect size). Therefore, a greater effort must be devoted to estimate the effect size of a particular phenomenon rather than a desired variability.     

Spatial variability in the partial pressures of CO2 in the northern Bering and Chukchi seas

In the summers of 1999 and 2003, the 1st and 2nd Chinese National Arctic Research Expeditions measured the partial pressure of CO₂ in the air and surface waters (pCO₂) of the Bering Sea and the western Arctic Ocean. The lowest pCO₂ values were found in continental shelf waters, increased values over the Bering Sea shelf slope, and the highest values in the waters of the Bering Abyssal Plain (BAP) and the Canadian Basin. These differences arise from a combination of various source waters, biological uptake, and seasonal warming. The Chukchi Sea was found to be a carbon dioxide sink, a result of the increased open water due to rapid sea-ice melting, high primary production over the shelf and in marginal ice zones (MIZ), and transport of low pCO₂ waters from the Bering Sea. As a consequence of differences in inflow water masses, relatively low pCO₂ concentrations occurred in the Anadyr waters that dominate the western Bering Strait, and relatively high values in the waters of the Alaskan Coastal Current (ACC) in the eastern strait. The generally lower pCO₂ values found in mid-August compared to at the end of July in the Bering Strait region (66–69°N) are attributed to the presence of phytoplankton blooms. In August, higher pCO₂ than in July between 68.5 and 69°N along 169°W was associated with higher sea-surface temperatures (SST), possibly as an influence of the ACC. In August in the MIZ, pCO₂ was observed to increase along with the temperature, indicating that SST plays an important role when the pack ice melts and recedes.     

添加纳米TiO2的氯醚树脂的XPS分析

在紫外线老化前后,利用光电子能谱(XPS)研究了分别添加金红石型和锐钛型纳米TiO2的氯醚树脂。研究发现,氯醚树脂中氯、氧元素具有表面富积现象——趋肤效应,而钛和碳元素在内层聚集;添加颜料粒子越小,在表面含量越大;金红石型纳米二氧化钛紫外屏蔽性好,减缓树脂老化;而锐钛型纳米二氧化钛具有显著的光催化活性,加速树脂老化。因此,金红石型纳米二氧化钛将是一种有前途的紫外线吸收剂。     

氨基酸在粘土高岭石上吸附等温线的研究

研究了4种氨基酸（甘氨酸，赖氨酸，天冬氨酸，谷氨酸）在粘土高岭石上的吸附等温线以及金属铜离子对其等温线的影响。研究表明，氨基酸在高岭石上的吸附等温线以及金属铜离子存在时的吸附等温线均属Langmuir型等温线；铜离子浓度增加时，其等温线斜率也增加，并认为体系可形成Ⅰ型三元表面络合物，铜离子对氨基酸在高岭石上等温线影响的规律和在相同体系中它对氨基酸在高岭石上交换吸附百分率E（%）-pH曲线的影响规律相一致。     

Variations of the Kuroshio Axis South of Kyushu in Relation to the Large Meander of the Kuroshio

The characteristics of the Kuroshio axis south of Kyushu, which meanders almost sinusoidally, are clarified in relation to the large meander of the Kuroshio by analyzing water temperature data during 1961–95 and sea level during 1984–95. The shape of the Kuroshio axis south of Kyushu is classified into three categories of small, medium, and large amplitude of meander. The small amplitude category occupies more than a half of the large-meander (LM) period, while the medium amplitude category takes up more than a half of the non-large-meander (NLM) period. Therefore, the amplitude and, in turn, the curvature of the Kuroshio axis is smaller on average during the LM period than the NLM period. The mean Kuroshio axis during the LM period is located farther north at every longitude south of Kyushu than during the NLM period, with a slight difference west of the Tokara Islands and a large difference to the east. A northward shift of the Kuroshio axis in particular east of the Tokara Islands induces small amplitude and curvature of the meandering shape during the LM period. During the NLM period, the meandering shape and position south of Kyushu change little with Kuroshio volume transport. In the LM formation stage, the variation of the Kuroshio axis is small west of the Tokara Islands but large to the east due to a small meander of the Kuroshio. In the LM decay stage, the Kuroshio meanders greatly south of Kyushu and is located stably near the coast southeast of Kyushu. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

LAPP对中国对虾(Penaeus chinensis)生长、缺氧耐受力及免疫抵抗力的影响

实验研究维生素C多聚磷酸酯（LAPP）添加在对虾饲料中，对中国对虾的生长、缺氧耐受力及免疫抵抗力的影响；实验进一步证明了中国对虾饲料中LAPP的最适添加量为400mg／100g饲料;本文还提出饲料中的LAPP能够提高中国对虾的缺氧耐受力，在溶氧超过3．1mg／kg海水的情况下，效果显著，在降低到2．3mg／kg海水时，作用减弱；用副溶血弧菌（Vibroparahaemolyticus）注射入虾体内，12小时内记录发现，饲料中不含LAPP的一组中国对虾，死亡率高于其它组，并且，LAPP含量最高的一组，死亡率明显低，死亡时间也出现较晚，这证明LAPP能够提高中国对虾的免疫抵抗力；本实验用注射金黄色葡萄球菌后细胞的吞噬百分率作指标，研究对虾细胞的吞噬作用，发现饲料中不含LAPP的对虾的吞噬百分率较低，随着饲料中LAPP浓度的提高，对虾血细胞的吞噬百分率逐渐升高，说明中国对虾细胞的吞噬作用逐步增强。     

用含氯化镉培养液培养塔胞藻的生物学效应

在塔胞藻培养液中加入不同浓度的CdCl2,然后分析了培养在各种处理和对照组的塔胞藻后代.结果发现,随着镉离子浓度的升高,细胞的生长繁殖量和体积在前2轮(9d为一轮)培养中均明显降低,而在第3轮培养时,细胞的繁殖和大小接近常态.随后对处理后多种细胞内含物含量进行了分析,显示出:随着培养液中镉离子浓度增高,细胞内的蛋白质、叶绿素含量均明显下降,而可溶性糖、核酸的含量与对照相比变化不大.     

哀牢山-红河断裂带中段应变分析

对哀牢山—红河断裂带中段和平—水塘剖面、墨江—元江剖面和其它地段的岩石应变及磁组构进行了分析，表明应变强度的校正磁各向异性度PJ从断裂带向西至三叠系明显降低，变形强度向西迅速减弱。磁化率椭球体主轴展布反映出剪切带内、外变形方式的改变。剪切带内，以水平走滑运动为主；向西则以水平缩短为主。在应变分析中，对断裂带内的S—C组构两组面理夹角、杏仁体和石榴石应变标志体进行了测量，结果显示，剪切带内的磁组构和岩石组构间关系较差。此外，还对这两条剖面中的三叠系进行了应变和磁组构分析，找出了它们与磁化率椭球体对应轴率间的相关性。     

台风“灿鸿”对长江口外海域悬浮体分布的影响

台风作为事件性的强动力因素,其对河口海域沉积环境的影响目前研究较少,开展典型台风事件对长江口外海域悬浮体分布的影响研究对于深入理解长江径流挟带陆源物质向东海陆架扩散机制等具有重要意义。利用2015年09号台风"灿鸿"过境前后长江口外海域现场调查数据,分析台风前后长江口外水体结构和悬浮体粒度分布变化,结合同期环境观测数据与开源数据,阐明台风对河口外海域悬浮体分布的影响机制。结果表明:长江口外海域悬浮体中细颗粒组分(≤ 128μm)主要为无机矿物颗粒,而粗颗粒组分(>128μm)主要是生源有机颗粒。生源有机粗颗粒主要分布于中上层水体,而无机细颗粒主要分布于底层水体,使得长江口外海域悬浮体平均粒径分布呈双层结构。台风前后悬浮体粒度分布变化反映了台风对长江口外海域物理和生物过程的双重影响,其中物理过程主要影响无机细颗粒分布变化,生物过程主要影响有机粗颗粒。台风期间强烈的偏北风使得长江冲淡水在口门外海域由东北输运转为往东输运,与长江冲淡水输运方向一致的表层无机细颗粒在台风后输运方向同样往东。另外,台风作用在河口区产生的下降流将12250-4站位底部再悬浮的泥质沉积物向东搬运至12300-4站,导致12300-4站底层悬浮体浓度增加、粒度变细。台风过境还造成长江口外海域初级生产力提高,而浮游植物生长对悬浮体中有机粗颗粒的形成有促进作用,使得口门外海域上层水体中有机粗颗粒体积浓度升高。长江口外海域由于台风过境导致悬浮体中无机细颗粒和生源有机颗粒含量均增加,使得其平均粒径整体变化不大。