嘉峪关地震台地震定位方位偏差研究

对嘉峪关地震台记录的500个地震逐一分析定位,将本台和中国地震台网中心的定位结果对比,统计平均偏差率。详细计算本台及3个子台的四象限定位结果偏差率,对发生方位偏差的震中位置进行归类研究,寻找规律。研究发现,远震定位结果受台基噪声影响大,近震定位结果受地质构造中断层影响大。应用方位角法定位地震可以最大限度地增加定位准确度,近地震速报时注意肃南区域方位异常的偏差角度,可提供较为准确的地震参数。     

鲁甸 MS6.5级地震强震动记录及震害分析

2014年8月3日发生的鲁甸地震是我国继2013年芦山地震之后的又一次破坏性浅源地震,造成了严重的人员伤亡和工程结构破坏.本文处理了我国数字强震动台网捕获的60余组主震三分量强震动记录,绘制了震中附近区域的峰值加速度等值线图,长轴沿西北-东南方向展布.通过与中国西部常用衰减关系的对比,发现各模型的预测值均不同程度高估了峰值加速度、峰值速度的观测值.最后以水平向峰值加速度较大的三个典型台站为例,详细调查了附近建筑的破坏情况,结合宏观烈度分布结果,分析了地震动特征与震害的相关性.     

沉积层地震观测噪声的对比试验

天津地区的地质构造条件复杂,其中大部分地区被新生代沉积物深度覆盖,地势以平原和洼地为主,北部有少量低山丘陵,平原约占93％.因此,天津市测震台网地震观测台站除蓟县台有基岩出露台外,其余台站均为井下地震观测.而井下地震计维修价格昂贵且不易维修,同时还面临着由于井下电缆损毁,地震计无法回收等问题.为此,天津市测震台网一直在寻找一种可替代现有井下观测的新方式,以应对深覆盖层地震观测存在的问题.本文通过地震观测,完成了一地多台基情况下台基噪声的对比试验,得到了很好的对比结果.该方法适合在其它类似天津这样沉积层较厚的地区推广使用,可达到简化地震计安装、降低设备维护成本和方便维护的目的.     

Ambient noise as the new source for urban engineering seismology and earthquake engineering: a case study from Beijing metropolitan area

In highly populated urban centers, traditional seismic survey sources can no longer be properly applied due to restrictions in modern civilian life styles. The ambient vibration noise, including both microseisms and microtremor, though are generally weak but available anywhere and anytime, can be an ideal supplementary source for conducting seismic surveys for engineering seismology and earthquake engineering. This is fundamentally supported by advanced digital signal processing techniques for effectively extracting the useful information out from the noise. Thus, it can be essentially regarded as a passive seismic method. In this paper we first make a brief survey of the ambient vibration noise, followed by a quick summary of digital signal processing for passive seismic surveys. Then the applications of ambient noise in engineering seismology and earthquake engineering for urban settings are illustrated with examples from Beijing metropolitan area. For engineering seismology the example is the assessment of site effect in a large area via microtremor observations. For earthquake engineering the example is for structural characterization of a typical reinforced concrete high-rise building using background vibration noise. By showing these examples we argue that the ambient noise can be treated as a new source that is economical, practical, and particularly valuable to engineering seismology and earthquake engineering projects for seismic hazard mitigation in urban areas.     

Application and Verification of Joint Probability Method in Potential Forecast for Severe Convective Weather in Anhui Province

In consideration of large uncertainties in severe convective weather forecast, ensemble forecasting is a dynamic method developed to quantitatively estimate forecast uncertainty. Based on ensemble output, joint probability is a post-processing method to delineate key areas where weather event may actually occur by taking account of the uncertainty of several important physical parameters. An investigation of the environments of little rainfall convection and strong rainfall convection from April to September (warm season) during 2009-2015 was presented using daily disastrous weather data, precipitation data of 80 stations in Anhui province and NCEP Final Analysis (FNL) data. Through ingredients-based forecasting methodology and statistical analysis,four convective parameters characterizing two types of convection were obtained, respectively, which were used to establish joint probability forecasting together with their corresponding thresholds. Using the ECMWF ensemble forecast and observations from April to September during 2016-2017, systematic verification mainly based on ROC and case study of different weather processes were conducted. The results demonstrate that joint probability method is capable of discriminating little rainfall convection and non-convection with comparable performance for different lead times, which is more favorable to identifying the occurrence of strong rainfall convection. The joint probability of little rainfall convection is a good indication for the occurrence of regional or local convection, but may produce some false alarms. The joint probability of strong rainfall convection is good at indicating regional concentrated short-term heavy precipitation as well as local heavy rainfall. There are also individual missing reports in this method, and in practice, 10% can be roughly used as joint probability threshold to achieve relative high TS score. Overall, ensemble-based joint probability method can provide practical short-term probabilistic guidance for severe convective weather.     

城镇有限场地条件下的物探找水试验

为在城区强干扰环境、有限场地条件下进行物探方法找水,特利用等值反磁通瞬变电磁法,在湖南郴州市某城镇进行了野外试验。在地表调查和周边人文环境基础上,常规电测深等找水有效手段在城镇区域难以施工,面对这个难题利用等值反磁通瞬变电磁法进行试验,其利用对偶中心耦合装置消除了收发线圈感应耦合来消除干扰。首先根据地质信息设计了近似南北向的4条剖面,然后进行了发射频率试验并进行单点连续探测,最后利用探测结果绘制了多测道曲线和二维模拟断面等值线图并设计了钻孔。钻探验证结果表明:等值反磁通瞬变电磁法在强干扰、场地受限的城镇区域找水效果较好,是一种值得推广的新方法。     

顾及共模误差的西南极GPS坐标时间序列噪声分析

使用Bernese 5.2软件双差定位程序处理西南极区域24个GPS基准站9 a的观测资料,获得各站单日解坐标时间序列.利用主分量分析法和独立分析法对其进行空间滤波,对比分析2种方法的滤波效果,然后采用极大似然估计法分析滤波前后各站时间序列的噪声特征,建立最优噪声模型,并分析共模误差对测站速度的影响.结果表明,2种方法...     

利用定尺度小波变换比方法测量远震极远震P和PKIKP震相到时

许多起始缓慢的震相的到时不易测量准确, 人眼测量的到时往往偏后. 本文对定尺度Morlet小波变换比方法加以改善和简化之后, 测量了50条远震和极远震记录的初至震相P和PKIKP的到时. 在对结果的合理性和误差进行分析讨论的基础上, 肯定了该方法的有效性.       

利用小波变换方法分析形变观测资料的正常背景变化特征

为定量刻画数字化形变观测资料中背景信息和噪声的时 频分布特征, 本文应用二进小波变换方法, 通过对小波分解的主模特征和随机白噪声识别因子变化特征分析, 剖析了山东数字化形变观测资料的正常动态背景和噪声变化规律. 结果表明, 当尺度取2, 3和4时, 分解后的细节部分存在着1/4日波、 半日波、 日波和半月波等准循环周期信号, 其中尤以尺度为3时的信号波幅最大; 尺度取1和5时的细节部分主要包含着噪声; 通过分析和追踪指定尺度的数字化形变观测资料小波变换的非震异常特征变化, 可望捕捉到与强地震孕育过程有关的前兆异常信息.      

基于小波理论的沉降监测数据序列分析

介绍了基于小波理论的沉降数据分析的理论背景、内容及实现方法。结合兖州地区某矿的沉降实测资料,研究了沉降数据降噪、沉降剧烈程度探测以及沉降数据中周期性识别3个方面的内容。