一次暴雨过程中云微物理特征的卫星反演分析

利用卫星反演技术和云微物理分析方法,以陕北2006年7月2日发生的暴雨过程为例,反演了云顶粒子有效半径(Re)、云顶温度(T)等云物理特征参数,通过卫星不同时次对暴雨云团的探测资料,分析了暴雨发展过程.暴雨云团表现为多单体特征,发展旺盛期对流单体的数量明显增加、云团尺度大幅增加.根据暴雨云系中的对流云、层云、过冷水云、低云(未被高云遮挡住)4种类型,分别选择了9个代表区,用于分析这次暴雨过程中不同类型云的物理特征和垂直结构.结果表明:此次暴雨云团由多种高度的云组成,低云高度较低,温度较高,云顶在0--10℃;层云高度略高,T为-10--20℃,Re为10-20 μm,并含有连片分布的过冷水云(Re为10 μm左右);高度最高的云为对流云,镶嵌在系统性层云中或在其上发展,T最低达到-80℃左右.从云底至0℃层存在一个较厚的凝结增长带,Re为5-10μm;0--10℃层存在一个碰并增长带,Re从13-15μm增长到20～25μm,但其厚度小于凝结增长带;T<-10℃层以上存在一个深厚的冰相增长带,表明在对流云团的发展成熟期,冰相增长过程为优势云物理过程.随着云的逐渐发展,混合相增长带由厚变薄,冰化增长带增厚,晶化温度升高、高度降低,表明在对流云团发展到成熟的过程中,冰化增长带在下传,云中冰化增长过程向下传递明显.     

A novel approach to fog/low stratus detection using Meteosat 8 data

A method is presented for fog and low stratus detection from daytime satellite imagery based on Meteosat 8 SEVIRI (Spinning-Enhanced Visible and Infra-Red Imager) data. With its excellent spatial, spectral and temporal resolutions, this imagery is an ideal basis for operational fog monitoring. The scheme utilizes a range of pixel-based and novel object-oriented techniques to separate fog and low stratus clouds from other cloud types. Fog and low stratus are identified by a number of tests which explicitly and implicitly address fog/low stratus spectral, spatial and microphysical properties. The scheme's performance is evaluated using ground-based measurements of cloud height over Europe. The algorithm is found to detect low clouds very accurately, with probabilities of detection (POD) ranging from 0.632 to 0.834 (for different inter-comparison approaches), and false alarm ratios (FAR) between 0.059 and 0.021. The retrieval of sub-pixel and temporal effects remain issues for further investigation.     

An evaluation of extrapolation techniques for the short‐term prediction of rain amounts

Abstract

Twenty‐seven radar cells from the Tropical Atlantic observed during GATE were followed and measurements of their fluxes and areas for initial time increments T₀ were fitted to various extrapolation schemes. The extrapolation procedure that gave the smallest error inforecasting the changes influx and area, was found to be the linear one and the optimum increment T₀ was about 30 min. However, even though these techniques have the advantage of establishing a trend in the behaviour of the flux and area with time, a comparison of the forecast errors from the linear extrapolation scheme with those from the “status quo” (persistence) assumption shows little if any improvement.

A technique including both cell motion and internal changes influx and area of the rain cells was developed to evaluate the accuracy of rain accumulation forecasts. It was found that the errors generated by the “status quo” assumption were of the order of 77% for a 2‐h forecast with little improvement by allowing for the extrapolation of area and flux.     

The structure and dynamics of M17SW

The M17SW molecular cloud core has been mapped at high resolution in the C¹⁷OJ = 3 2 transition and in 450, 600, 800, 1100 and 1300µm continuum emission, using the JCMT. The clumpy nature of the cloud core is clearly revealed and the northern condensation has been resolved into 3 main clumps, each of which lies close to an H₂O maser, suggesting that they may contain young embedded stellar objects.     

The oxidation of S(IV) during riming by cloud droplets

Experiments have been performed to investigate whether the process of freezing during riming in clouds may induce oxidation of dissolved SO₂ to SO ₄ ^2– . The experiments were conducted in a cold room at varying temperatures between –6 and –15 °C. Solutions containing dissolved SO₂ and NH₄OH in various proportions, in the range of concentrations between 3×10^–5 and 10^–3 M, were sprayed. Rime was collected on a rotating cylinder and analyzed. Absorption of oxygen from laboratory air was prevented, except in the spray, to avoid spurious oxidation. Blank experiments were made at +3 to +6 °C. The results indicate clearly that, as the dominant cation becomes NH ₄ ⁺ rather than H⁺, substantial oxidation of S(IV) occurs during riming. This is consistent with redox reactions taking place as a result of charge separation at the ice-water interface during freezing.     

冰雹与雷暴大风的云对地闪电特征

利用京津冀中尺度试验基地三站闪电定位资料，对１９８９—１９９２年２０个冰雹大风实例进行了分析。发现云对地闪电（简称地闪）活动表现为一次冰雹大风天气过程。且正的云对地闪电（简称正闪）占绝对优势，而负的云对地闪电（简称负闪）则与强降水相关。其开始发生时间与雷雨同步，比冰雹平均提前２５ｍｉｎ左右，出现在雹云前进方向右侧（下风方）１０—５０ｋｍ。当正闪发生在雹云后部时是冰雹发生与加强阶段，而闪电密集区与云体重叠时是冰雹过程强盛阶段，当位于云体的前方且散开时是冰雹减弱消亡阶段。这个特征对超短期预报具有指示意义。     

Modelling Boundary-Layer Clouds With a Statistical Cloud Scheme and a Second-Order Turbulence Closure

We present a second-order turbulence model for the cloudy planetary boundary layer (PBL), which includes a statistical scheme of the sub-grid scale condensation. The model contains prognostic equations for the turbulent kinetic energy, total water, and liquid water temperature, the latter two being assumed to be conservative variables. Using these conservative thermodynamic variables the condensation process is formulated as a function of the departure of the total water from saturation and its variance. The computation of the variance requires second moment correlations which are modelled through the parameterization of the third-order moments using a convective mass-flux formulation. The inclusion of these third moments and new assumptions on heat flux transport lead to a nonlocal turbulence scheme with counter-gradient effects. The final form for the heat flux turns out to be a linearized version of a previously established result. For the statistical cloud formulation, a linear combination of a Gaussian and a positively skewed distribution function is used with a modified liquid water flux expression to account fornon-Gaussian behaviour.The effect of the turbulence scheme on the boundary-layer cloud structure is discussed and the performance of the model is tested by comparing it against the large eddy simulation (LES) of the undisturbed period of the Atlantic Stratocumulus Transition Experiment (ASTEX). The model is able to produce both mean and turbulent quantities that are in reasonable agreement with the LES output of ASTEX.     

On the bulk parameterization of snow and its application to the quantitative studies of precipitation growth

Appropriate formulation of bulk parameterization of snow growth and evaporation based on observational characteristics of snow particles is presented. The parameterization is compared to that of S. A. Rutledge and P. V. Hobbs and to detailed treatment in which snow particles are assumed to grow or evaporate in each size bin separately. On the contrary to bulk parameterization of rain, snow diffusional growth or evaporation is accurately represented in the suggested bulk formulation, but growth by riming is overpredicted. Integrations of water budget equations in a one-dimensional updraft have shown that quantitative results, e.g., precipitation intensity, cloudwater content, supersaturation with respect to ice, depend on the parameterization scheme employed, which suggests that comparisons of field measurements with parameterized model outputs is usually not straightforward.     

中国东部暖季对流云与层状云的比例及与降水的对应关系

基于1985~2011年逐时地面台站观测云资料,分析了对流云和层状云及其比例关系的时空演变特征,结合逐日融合降水资料研究了对流云、层状云与季风雨带的对应关系。结果表明,中国东部暖季（5~9月）对流云发生频率平均为15.4%,层状云为30.0%。对流云与层状云发生频率的比例在广东、广西、海南省东部和贵州省大部分地区大于1,其它地区均小于1。伴随季风雨带的北进南退,层状云发生频率和云量中心均与降水中心对应,且层状云云带与季风雨带位置吻合,随时间的演变趋势也相同,说明季风雨带主要由层状降水构成,对流云发生频率和云量大值中心则位于季风雨带南侧。对流云和层状云发生频率/云量的变化在华南地区和江淮流域呈显著负相关,云的类型主要由大气稳定度决定。对流云和层状云发生频率在华北地区呈显著正相关,水汽是形成云的决定因素。就降水频率而言,华南地区层状云降水和对流云降水各占一定的比例,而江淮流域和华北地区层状云降水频率更大。