寒潮过程中风浪对黄海海气热量通量和动量通量影响研究

采用2009—2013年CFSR(Climate Forecast System Reanalysis)大气和海洋再分析资料对黄海海气间热量通量和动量通量的特征进行统计分析,并通过FVCOMSWAVE浪流耦合模式对典型寒潮过程中风浪的影响效果进行模拟研究与对比分析。统计结果显示,通量受海表大风、海气温差及海洋环流等因子影响,秋冬季节强烈,春夏季节相对较弱,在寒潮活跃的冷季该海域的海流处于弱流期,风浪对海面通量的作用明显增强。海温特征也显示冷季的不稳定性显著强于暖季,因此该海域冷季具有更强的海气热量通量。沿岸站点的比较显示,南部吕泗站面向更开阔的东海海域,其平均波高高出北部20%左右。这与沿海南部通量强于北部特征对应。数值模拟显示,在寒潮过程中,海气界面热量通量和动量通量输送比多年月平均状态显著增强,动量通量增大1~5倍,热量通量增大1~6倍。寒潮过程入海冷锋走向、强度、移动方向显著影响海面热量通量和动量通量大值区的分布。偏北路寒潮纬向型冷锋入海,其强度东部大于西部,造成通量大值区形成在黄海东北部,而偏西路寒潮经向型冷锋入海,其强度南部大于北部,造成通量大值区形成在黄海南部。同时偏北路径寒潮强度大于偏西路径,海气动量通量响应较偏西路径强约25%,热量通量强约50%。耦合风浪作用的模拟显示,海气间热量通量和动量通量明显增大,对不同强度风浪,浪高增加1.5倍,动量通量最大值增大约2倍,热量通量增大10~160 W/m2;浪高减弱至0.5倍,动量通量最大值则减弱约40%,热量通量减小10~55 W/m2。冷锋及其驱动的风浪强烈影响区域海气通量时空特征。     

江汉和江南西部春玉米涝渍指标及风险评估

以江汉和江南西部地区春玉米为研究对象,利用研究区域内57个气象站1961-2012年的逐日降水量资料、春玉米生育期资料和春玉米涝渍灾情资料,筛选春玉米不同生育时期的涝渍灾害样本。采用多元线性回归分析方法,定量分析当前过程降水量和前期降水量对春玉米涝渍灾害的影响,并据此构建当量降水量。基于正态分布的Lilliefors检验和t-分布区间估计方法,计算不同生育时期、不同等级涝渍灾害的当量降水量指标阈值,由此构建该区域春玉米不同生育时期的涝渍灾害等级指标并进行独立样本验证。在此基础上,利用信息扩散理论风险评估方法,计算各站点的春玉米涝渍致灾风险指数。结果表明:当前过程降水量和前2旬降水量对该区域春玉米涝渍灾害有显著性影响;构建的区域春玉米涝渍等级指标能够较好地反映实际受灾情况,指标验证结果与历史记录有较高一致性;出苗-拔节期和拔节-抽雄期发生春玉米涝渍灾害的风险相对较低,抽雄-成熟期为春玉米涝渍灾害的高风险时期,高风险区域主要位于湖北省恩施市、宜昌市西南部、荆州市西南部以及湖南省张家界市北部。     

电力系统元件非线性微分-代数子系统模型的逆系统控制:一种新算法

针对电力系统元件非线性微分-代数子系统模型,本文提出一种新算法研究其逆系统控制问题.所提出的新算法不需要对控制输出及其高阶导数做复杂的变换,具有更好的应用性.本文的逆系统控制方法主要分为两步：第1步,利用所提出的新算法来判断被控元件的可逆性,若可逆,则基于状态反馈与动态补偿,构造出元件的α阶积分右逆系统,实现复合系统的线性化和解耦;第2步,利用线性控制的理论和方法设计闭环控制器,使得元件被控对象满足期望的性能指标.最后按照本文所提出的方法,研究了多机电力系统的分散非线性汽门控制问题.仿真结果验证了本文所提方法的有效性.     

具有不确定参数的滞后型Lurie控制系统鲁棒绝对稳定性的LMI方法

分别针对具有结构参数和范数有界参数的滞后型Lurie控制系统的鲁棒绝对稳定性问题,利用Lyapunov方法给出了系统鲁棒绝对稳定的时滞无关条件及时滞相关条件.得到的结果用线性矩阵不等式（LMI）表示,易于利用MATLAB工具箱求得保守性较低的条件.     

南极普里兹湾附近海域表层海流特征分析

利用第29次南极科考期间在普里兹湾海区释放的8个Argos漂流浮标所获的总计662 d的数据,对普里兹湾及其邻近海域的表层海流特征进行了分析,并和以前的研究结果进行对比,结果表明:普里兹湾西部和北部表层海流基本呈现向西的流动,说明此地区的表层海流以沿南极大陆的逆时针沿岸流为主。普里兹湾东部海流呈现先向南再向西或先向南再向北的流动,普里兹湾西北部海流呈现向南的流动。8个浮标平均流速在0.02—0.20 m·s~(-1)之间,最大流速为1.57 m·s~(-1),流速1.0 m·s~(-1)的大流速区主要集中在普里兹湾、克洛斯角外侧、达恩利角外侧海域,流速1.5 m·s~(-1)的大流速区只出现在普里兹湾、克洛斯角外侧两处海域。     

Remote sensing and GIS based determination of groundwater dependent ecosystems in the Western Cape, South Africa

Finding the location of groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs) is important in determining the extent of restrictions that need to be placed upon the abstraction of groundwater. Remote sensing was combined with geographical information system (GIS) modelling to produce a GDE probability rating map for the Sandveld region, South Africa. Landsat TM imagery identified the areas indicating the probable presence of GDEs and GIS assisted in their delineation. Three GIS models were generated: a GIS model predicting landscape wetness potential (LWP model) based on terrain morphological features; the LWP model was modified to highlight groundwater generated landscape wetness potential (the resulting GglWP model); and a groundwater elevation model was interpolated, combining groundwater level measurements in boreholes in the region with digital elevation model data. Biomass indicators generated from Landsat were classified and combined with the GIS models, followed by field verification of riverine and wetland GDEs. The LWP model provided the most accurate results of the three models tested for GDEs in this region.

Detecting planets in planetary nebulae

We examine the possibility of detecting signatures of surviving Uranus/Neptune-like planets inside planetary nebulae. Planets that are not too close to the stars (orbital separation larger than ∼5 au) are likely to survive the entire evolution of the star. As the star turns into a planetary nebula, it has a fast wind and strong ionizing radiation. The interaction of the radiation and wind with a planet may lead to the formation of a compact condensation or tail inside the planetary nebula, which emits strongly in H α , but not in [O  iii ]. The position of the condensation (or tail) will change over a time-scale of ∼10 yr. Such condensations might be detected with currently existing telescopes.     

Accurate analytical nutation series

In this letter we present the first accurate analytical nutation series, deduced from the Hamiltonian theory by the authors. They provide the highest accuracy ever obtained by any analytical nutation series, since the deviation in CEP (celestial ephemeris pole) offsets with respect to that of the IERS Conventions 1996 is kept below 1 mas in the time domain, in spite of still lacking ocanic corrections.     

Methods of searching for planets around pulsars

We analyse different methods of searching for planets around neutron stars by timing observations of pulsars. To this end, we study a few interesting models describing TOA residual variations that are observed, or could be observed, and which can mimic planets. We carry out a detailed theoretical analysis of the behaviour of these methods in the situations mentioned. We show that it is very helpful to look at these phenomena as some kind of quasi-periodic variations of residuals of time of arrival of pulsar pulses. We demonstrate that such a model-independent approach leads to promising conclusions that can be useful when analysing timing observations of pulsars to find planets or to prove that observed phenomena are of planetary origin.     

矿田构造研究方法的技术结构

笔者在多年从事矿田构造研究的基础上,对矿田构造学的工作方法进行结构分析,按主要属性分别归纳为观察与探测技术、测试与分析技术、模拟与实验技术、计算机信息处理技术。这个排列恰好与工作程序大体吻合,并对各类方法的技术项作了简要评述,论及应用的条件、学科交叉关系,以及研究的前沿与热点,并介绍了某些适用的新技术。