一种基于二次灰关联分析的数列预测法

数列预测一直是评价决策中最常见而又信于把握的问题之一。本文在总结现有预测方法的基础上，结合前铛预报思想和灰色预测理论，依据数据求同原则，提出了运用二次灰关联分析，建立组合模型的预测方法，该方法易于计算机实现，并已实际应用于油气储量预测研究中。     

Solar modulation of cosmogenic nuclide production over the last millennium: comparison between C and Be records

For about the last 30 years it has been recognized that the high frequency component of the tree rings ¹⁴C/¹²C record is dominated by the modulation of the cosmic ray flux by the solar wind. In particular, it has been demonstrated that the three most recent periods of low sunspot occurrence were characterized by high values of atmospheric ¹⁴C/¹²C. During the last millennium other periods of high ¹⁴C/¹²C values were observed but their solar origin is still debatable. In the present work we compare these fluctuations with an independent record of cosmogenic ¹⁰Be measured in ice from the South Pole to check the solar origin of the observed ¹⁴C/¹²C variations. In order to compare quantitatively the results obtained on ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C, it is necessary to take into account the different behaviour of these two cosmogenic isotopes, and especially the damping effect of the carbon cycle in the case of ¹⁴C. As an input to a 12-box numerical model we used the relative fluctuations of the ¹⁰Be concentrations record measured in South Pole ice and converted it into a synthetic ¹⁴C record. We took into account the fact that ¹⁰Be modulation is enhanced in polar regions due to the orientation of the geomagnetic field. As expected, the fluctuations of the modelled ¹⁴C record are much smaller (a factor of 20) than those observed for the raw ¹⁰Be record. In addition, the variations are smoother and shifted in time by a few decades. The ¹⁰Be-based ¹⁴C variations closely resemble the ¹⁴C measurements obtained on tree rings (R = 0.81). In particular, it is easy to identify periods of maximal ¹⁴C/¹²C which correspond to solar activity minima centred at about 1060, 1320 (Wolf), 1500 (Spörer), 1690 (Maunder) and 1820 (Dalton) yr A.D. Cross-correlation calculations suggest that there is no significant lag between the ¹⁰Be-based ¹⁴C and the tree-ring ¹⁴C records. Our study strongly suggests the dominance of the solar modulation on the cosmonuclide production variations during the last millennium.     

Chemical composition of upper crust in eastern China

In an area of 3.3×10⁶ km² within eastern China, 28 253 rock samples were collected systematically and combined into 2718 composite samples which were analyzed by 15 reliable methods using national preliminary certified reference materials (CRMs) for data quality monitoring. The average chemical compositions of the exposed crust, the sedimentary cover and the exposed basement as well as the upper crust for 76 chemical elements in eastern China are given. A key basic geology projcct supported by Ministry of Geology and Mineral Resources of China.     

东风山前寒武纪含铁建造金矿床中的稀土元素

东风山含铁建造金矿床中稀土元素含量普遍较低。东风山群是含矿层,其不同层位岩石和矿物的稀土含量有所差别。大理岩和含铁层中铁闪石的稀土含量最低,甚至低于稀土地壳丰度;上部角岩、下部角岩和石榴子石中稀土含量近似其他壳丰度;而板岩和花岗岩中稀土含量远高于其他壳丰度。稀土元素分布的特点反映了东风山金矿床形成于一个半封闭和较还原的海盆地,金矿化是在弱碱性条件下产生。黄铁矿中出现独居石类矿物,这可能与陆壳重熔改造形成花岗岩时产生的局部富轻稀土热液沿黄铁矿裂隙渗入有关。     

黄土斜坡地震动时程分析

应用地震危险性分析理论和地震动人工合成技术，给出Newmark法中所需的地震动时程，解决了斜坡稳定性分析Newmark法中难以选取合适地震动时程的难题。通过对黄土斜坡实例计算，给出了坡体中地震动峰值加速度与深度的关系；在计算坡体位移时，提出了等效峰值加速度的概念；对比了使用地面地震动时程和使用坡体内等效地震动时程的计算结果。     

Bathymetric and geochemical investigation of Kawah Ijen Crater Lake, East Java, Indonesia

A bathymetric survey of Kawah Ijen crater lake was conducted by acoustic sounding in 1996 to compare the lake morphology with those measured in 1922, 1925 and 1938, and to calculate the present lake volume. Even though the lake experienced several hydrothermal eruptions, the maximum depth became shallower (182 m) than before (200 m), resulting in a reduced lake volume (3.0×10⁷ m³).Fifty-two major and minor constituents including rare earth elements and polythionates (PT) of the lake waters at various depths were determined by ICP-AES, ICP-MS and HPLC, respectively. These ions except for several volatile elements are taken up by lake fringe through congruent dissolution of pyroclastics of Kawah Ijen volcano. Most ions are homogeneously distributed throughout the lake, although PT showed a considerable vertical variation. Rare earth elements (REE) in the Kawah Ijen water as well as those from other hyper-acidic crater lakes show distribution patterns likely due to the three rock dissolution (preferential, congruent and residual) types, and their logarithmic concentrations linearly depend upon the pH values of the lake waters.Using the PT degradation kinetics data, production rates of PT, injection rates of SO₂ and H₂S into the lake were estimated to be 114, 86 and 30 tons/day, respectively. Also travel time of the spring water at the Banyupahit Riverhead from Kawah Ijen was estimated to be 600–1000 days through the consideration of decreasing rates of PT. Molten sulfur stocks containing Sn, Cu, Bi sulfides and Pb-barite exposed on the inner crater slope were presumed to be extinct molten sulfur pools at the former lake bottom. This was strongly supported by the barite precipitation temperature estimated through the consideration of the temperature dependence of Pb-chlorocomplex formation.     

济南-济阳地区土壤地球化学特征

通过对济南—济阳研究区内土壤地球化学特征的对比分析,探讨了元素的丰缺、土壤质量及对农业环境的影响。     

北大别漫水河混合岩化片麻岩中锆石微区微量元素特征及其地质意义

本文通过对北大别漫水河片麻岩的锆石进行阴极发光(CL)显微图像观察及激光剥蚀等离子体质谱(LA-ICP-MS)微区微量元素分析，试图对重结晶和深熔成因变质锆石的微量元素特征进行制约。CL图像显示该片麻岩锆石存在复杂的内部结构，有原岩岩浆锆石、重结晶变质锆石和深熔锆石。不同锆石区域的Hf、P、Ti、Nb、Ta和Ce等元素含量及Nb/Ta比值相似。但重结晶和深熔锆石的Th/U比值明显低于原岩锆石(分别为0.33～1.12、0.03～0.60和0.92～1.99).重结晶锆石区域低Th/U比值是由于重结晶过程中Th比U更易排出锆石晶格，而深熔锆石区域低Th/U比值是其结晶的熔体中低Th和高U含量的原因。不同锆石区域的稀土元素含量也不相同。原岩锆石稀土总量高(621.9～1331.6ppm)，变化较大，而深熔锆石和重结晶锆石稀土总量低(分别为236.8～642.5ppm；98.5～435，6ppm)。不同锆石区域的稀土元素配分模式相似。但重结晶锆石的稀土元素含量比原岩锆石低3～4倍，可能是重结晶过程中稀土元素被逐出锆石晶格所致。深熔锆石的稀土元素含量受深熔熔体与残留体之间平衡与否的制约，如果熔体与残留体之间达到了平衡，则深熔锆石与原岩锆石有相似的稀土元素含量；反之，深熔锆石的稀土元素含量就会低于原岩锆石。漫水河片麻岩深熔锆石的稀土含量比原岩锆石低1～4倍，反映了深熔熔体与残留体之间没有达到平衡。结合已有的花岗岩与混合岩化岩石的年龄和同位素特征，说明北大别混合岩化片麻岩可能与同时代花岗岩的形成有成因关系。     

安徽铜陵矿集区海底喷流沉积体系的流体包裹体微量元素对比

铜陵矿集区与铜-金(多金属)矿床有关的热液活动主要有两大体系。即与海西期海底喷流沉积有关的热液体系和与矽卡岩矿化有关的燕山期岩浆热液体系。查明这两类热液体系的流体包裹体特征对区域找矿和矿床成因研究都有实际意义。在包裹体岩相学研究基础上，应用ICP-MS技术和热爆提取方法，研究了新桥、冬瓜山、峙门口、铜官山、朝山等矿床具代表性的热液石英中流体包裹体的微量元素、稀土元素特征。结果表明，两类热液体系在流体包裹体特征上有较大的区别，在流体的微量元素和稀土元素特征方面也很不相同。海底喷流沉积体系的热液石英中流体包裹体与岩浆热液体系的相比。稀土总量较高，LREE／HREE比值较大，δEu不明显。且Mo／(W Sn)比值较高，反映流体中成矿物质的深源特征；Ga／T1、Rb／Cs大。Zr／Hf低，也不同于岩浆热液体系。