近40 a石河子地区气候暖湿化特征分析

分析了40 a气温、降水及干旱指数的变化特征,结果表明:(1)近40 a石河子地区平均温度以0.3℃/10 a趋势上升,和全疆变化一致;该地区年、冬季、夏季气温总体呈上升趋势,20世纪60~70年代年、冬季、夏季气温呈降低的趋势,80~90年代气温呈增加趋势,80年代冬季升温比夏季升温明显,而90年代夏季升温比冬季明显。(2)降水总体趋势上升,降水增长率为12.5 mm/10 a,90年代平均降水比30 a均值偏多20.8%。(3)年平均干旱指数总体呈下降趋势,但趋势不明显,其减少率为-0.3/10 a。(4)石河子地区的温度、降水及干旱指数用M ann-kendall方法检验分别在不同年份发生了不同程度的突变。结果指出,石河子地区气候正在趋于暖、湿化,这对于本区绿洲的发展具有有利的一面。     

ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES AND ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS ON STRONG MEIYU IN SHANGHAI

1 INTRODUCTIONWith the methods of correlation and compositeanalyses,Ju et al.[1] discussed the relationship betweenlow-frequency oscillation in the summer monsoonregion in East Asia and droughts/floods in the middleand lower reaches of the Yangtze River and found thatstrong monsoon years usually cause more rain in theregion. Studying the interdecadal variation ofprecipitation in three rain zones over south China,thevalley of Yangtze River and north China,Tan et al.[2]showed that mid- a…     

Integration of transfer function model and back propagation neural network for forecasting storm sewer flow in Taipei metropolis

Typhoons and storms have often brought heavy rainfalls and induced floods that have frequently caused severe damage and loss of life in Taiwan. Our ability to predict sewer discharge and forecast floods in advance during storm seasons plays an important role in flood warning and flood hazard mitigation. In this paper, we develop an integrated model (TFMBPN) for forecasting sewer discharge that combines two traditional models: a transfer function model and a back propagation neural network. We evaluated the integrated model and the two traditional models by applying them to a sewer system of Taipei metropolis during three past typhoon events (NARI, SINLAKU, and NAKR). The performances of the models were evaluated by using predictions of a total of 6 h of sewer flow stages, and six different evaluation indices of the predictions. Finally, an overall performance index was determined to assess the overall performance of each model. Based on these evaluation indices, our analysis shows that TFMBNP yields accurate results that surpass the two traditional models. Thus, TFMBNP appears to be a promising tool for flood forecasting for the Taipei metropolis sewer system. For publication in Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Analysis.     

Study on NDVI- T s space by combining LAI and evapotranspiration

This paper focuses on interpreting the different spatial relationships between NDVI and T _s, a triangular or a trapezoid, and on analyzing transformation conditions, the physical and ecological meanings of the vegetation index-surface temperature space as well. Further, we use the Temperature-Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) to explain the existent meaning of a triangular space after NDVI reaches its saturated state by employing the relationships between NDVI, LAI and evapotranspiration. The specific relations between NDVI and T _s are useful for describing, validating and updating land surface models.     

华东地区测震学指标异常配套和中强震对应关系初探

本文分析了部分地震学指标的物理意义。通过对华东地区1970年以来14个指标的全时间扫描,并使用华东地区Ms≥5.0地震进行对应,结果表明,选取Rm值、b值和AC值进行同步异常分析,能显著提高华东地区的有震报震率,但有漏报。对目前华东地区异常集中区(南黄海及其沿岸地区)进行时间扫描,结果显示该异常集中区未出现同步异常,认为该区域短期内发生中强地震的可能性不大。     

三门峡新一代天气雷达冰雹回波特征分析

利用三门峡新一代天气雷达资料，分析了冰雹天气时雷达产品的特征，并确定冰雹天气预报指标。     

郸城小麦霜冻的危害及预防措施

根据郸城县1987--2007年小麦霜冻情况，分析了小麦霜冻害的影响因素及对小麦产量的影响；并根据观察和试验结果，提出了小麦霜冻的预测指标和预防、灾后补救措施。     

The strength and fractal dimension characteristics of alum–kaolin flocs

Flocs generated by various shear forces exhibit different characteristics of size, strength and structure. These properties were investigated by employing a continuous optical monitoring and a microscope with CCD camera to directly monitor aggregation under six different shear intensities. The floc structure was characterized by the fractal dimension. The results showed that the flocculation index (FI) decreased from 1.16 at 20 rpm to 0.25 at 250 rpm and the floc size decreased from 550 μm to 150 μm, meantime, the FI value showed a good correlation with floc size. In order to determine the floc strength, two methods were used. One was the strength factor, ranging from 18.3% to 62.5%, calculated from FI curve, and the other was a theoretical value between 0.005 N/m² and 0.240 N/m², estimated by calculation. The floc strength increased with the G value in both cases. Furthermore, the fractal dimension increased with G and its value was between 1.30 and 1.63. The relation between fractal dimension and strength was also obtained.     

山西晋城矿区成庄井田3号煤储层的物性研究

对研究区内3号煤储层的几何形态、割理和孔隙系统进行了研究,并引入了储层结构综合指数(SI)来评价研究区内煤层透气性特征和甲烷运移能力,并得出了如下结论:①全区煤层厚度稳定,是煤层甲烷的良好储集层;②根据全区割理发育程度推测出,构造主应力来自NE-SW方向;③通过孔隙系统研究,3号煤层基本上属于非渗透性储层;④成庄井田3号煤层结构综合指数(SI)等值线平面图,显示了煤层透气性由东北向西南呈逐渐变差的趋势。     

Statistical empirical index of chemical weathering in igneous rocks: A new tool for evaluating the degree of weathering

Chemical weathering indices are useful tools in characterizing weathering profiles and determining the extent of weathering. However, the predictive performance of the conventional indices is critically dependent on the composition of the unweathered parent rock. To overcome this limitation, the present paper introduces an alternative statistical empirical index of chemical weathering that is extracted by the principal component analysis (PCA) of a large dataset derived from unweathered igneous rocks and their weathering profiles. The PCA analysis yields two principal components (PC1 and PC2), which capture 39.23% and 35.17% of total variability, respectively. The extent of weathering is reflected by variation along PC1, primarily due to the loss of Na₂O and CaO during weathering. In contrast, PC2 is the direction along which the projections of unweathered felsic, intermediate and mafic igneous rocks appear to be best discriminated; therefore, PC1 and PC2 represent independent latent variables that correspond to the extent of weathering and the chemistry of the unweathered parent rock. Subsequently, PC1 and PC2 were then mapped onto a ternary diagram (MFW diagram). The M and F vertices characterize mafic and felsic rock source, respectively, while the W vertex identifies the degree of weathering of these sources, independent of the chemistry of the unweathered parent rock.

The W index has a number of significant properties that are not found in conventional weathering indices. First, the W index is sensitive to chemical changes that occur during weathering because it is based on eight major oxides, whereas most conventional indices are defined by between two and four oxides. Second, the W index provides robust results even for highly weathered sesquioxide-rich samples. Third, the W index is applicable to a wide range of felsic, intermediate and mafic igneous rock types. Finally, the MFW diagram is expected to facilitate provenance analysis of sedimentary rocks by identifying their weathering trends and thereby enabling a backward estimate of the composition of the unweathered source rock.