Sensitivity study of the seasonal mean circulation in the northern South China Sea

A study of the circulation in the northern South China Sea （SCS） is carried out with the aid of a three-dimensional, high-resolution regional ocean model. One control and two sensitivity experiments are performed to qualitatively investigate the effects of surface wind forcing, Kuroshio intrusion, and bottom topographic influence on the circulation in the northern SCS. The model results show that a branch of the Kuroshio in the upper layer can intrude into the SCS and have direct influence on the circulation over the continental shelf break in the northern SCS. There are strong southward pressure gradients along a zonal belt largely seaward of the continental slope. The pressure gradients are opposite in the southern and northern parts of the Luzon Strait, indicating inflow and outflow through the strait, respectively. The sensitivity experiments suggest that the Kuroshio intrusion is responsible for generating the imposed pressure head along the shelf break and has no obvious seasonal variations. The lateral forcing through the Luzon Strait and Taiwan Strait can induce the southwestward slope current and the northeastward SCS Warm Current in the northern SCS. Without the lateral forcing, there is the continental slope. The wind forcing mainly causes the The wind-induced water pile-up results in the southward no high-pressure-gradient zonal belt seaward of seasonal variation of the circulation in the SCS. high pressure gradient along the northwestern boundary of the basin. Without the blocking of the plateau around Dongsha Islands, the intruded Kuroshio tends to extend northwest and the SCS branch of the Kuroshio becomes wider and stronger. The analyses presented here are qualitative in nature but should lead to a better understanding of the oceanic responses in the northern SCS to these external influence factors.     

2009年冬季至2010年春季黑龙江省气温持续偏低成因

利用常规观测的温度资料和中国国家气候中心提供的环流特征量、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及美国气候预测中心（CPC）提供的AO指数等,分析了2009年11月至2010年4月中高纬大气环流异常特征,探讨了AO与同期气温的关系。分析表明：黑龙江省冬春气候异常与500 hPa大尺度环流背景有关。冬春持续偏冷,对应北半球欧亚中高纬地区呈“-+-”的波列分布,90°-180°E呈现出“北正南负”的环流形势;北半球极涡面积偏大,冬季东亚大槽位置偏西,春季东亚大槽强度偏强,冬春AO指数持续异常偏强,显著负位相。     

基于时空不确定性的对流尺度集合预报效果评估检验

针对对流尺度天气系统的高度非线性特征和高分辨率模式预报结果存在时、空不确定性现象,以及当前邻域概率法主要考虑高分辨率预报结果的空间位移误差,而不能有效解决预报结果存在时间超前与滞后问题,将时间因素引入到邻域概率法中,结合一次强飑线过程进行对流尺度集合预报试验,并基于改进后的新型邻域概率法与分数技巧评分,对降水预报进行了不同时、空尺度的效果评估检验。结果表明:（1）邻域集合概率法和概率匹配平均法在极端降水的分数技巧评分远高于传统集合平均,弥补了集合平均对极端降水预报能力偏低的缺陷。（2）对于此类飑线过程的对流尺度天气系统而言,邻域半径为15—45 km的空间尺度能够改善降水位移误差的空间不确定性,并使其预报效果达到最优,其中15—30 km的邻域半径对于尺度更小的大量级降水事件预报能力更强。（3）对流尺度降水预报考虑时间尺度与降水强度存在着对应关系,不同时间尺度可以捕获到不同量级降水的时间不确定性。同时,时间尺度与空间尺度对于降水预报效果的影响是相互关联的。（4）改进的邻域概率法能够同时体现高分辨率模式预报结果在对流尺度降水事件上存在的时、空不确定性,实现了对流尺度降水在时、空尺度上的综合评估,并能为不同量级降水提供与其时、空尺度相匹配的概率预报结果。      

Effect of Stochastic MJO Forcing on ENSO Predictability

Within the frame of the Zebiak-Cane model,the impact of the uncertainties of the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) on ENSO predictability was studied using a parameterized stochastic representation of intraseasonal forcing.The results show that the uncertainties of MJO have little effect on the maximum prediction error for ENSO events caused by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP);compared to CNOP-type initial error,the model error caused by the uncertainties of MJO led to a smaller prediction uncertainty of ENSO,and its influence over the ENSO predictability was not significant.This result suggests that the initial error might be the main error source that produces uncertainty in ENSO prediction,which could provide a theoretical foundation for the data assimilation of the ENSO forecast.     

切变线降水系统微物理特征及隆水机制个例分析

利用机载云粒子探测系统(PMS).对2004年7月1日影响吉林省的一次切变线降水过程进行了探测飞行,利用所获取的宏微观资料对此次降水过程的微物理结构、降水机制进行综合分析.结果表明:此次切变线降水云系主要由高层云、雨层云、碎云构成,高层云和雨层云中间夹有1100m左右的无云区;3类云中平均云滴浓度、平均云滴直径各不相同;云水含量随高度分布不均匀,云的不同部位云水含量起伏较大;冰晶浓度平均为17.3个/L;此次探测的降水云系符合Bergeron提出的催化云一供水云相互作用导致降水的概念.根据云图及其他探测资料综合分析,冰晶主要产生于高层云上部或卷层云的冰晶播撒,供水云为高层云中下部和雨层云.     

不同云系降水过程中GPS可降水量的特征——华北地区典型个例分析

利用石家庄、秦皇岛和张家口2005—2006年4~10月地基GPS反演的可降水量资料和常规天气资料,对可降水量与实际降水的关系进行统计,按降水性质,选取单纯积状云产生的对流降水、单纯层状云产生的稳定性降水及层积混合云产生的暴雨三类样本,对可降水量在三类典型降水过程中的演变趋势进行了分析。结果表明:大气中存在高值可降水量是降水产生的必要条件;可降水量呈阶段性、波状变化特点,其变化幅度、极值水平和持续时间与天气影响系统、降水性质等密切相关;降水强度和可降水量极大值出现时间不一定吻合,但强降水通常出现在可降水量的高值阶段,可降水量的高值阶段往往对应着较高的降水概率。另外,可降水量在以上三类性质降水中表现出不同特征,可为降水的短时临近预报提供参考。     

INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE OVER ASIAN-PACIFIC REGION ON THE SUMMERTIME NORTHEASTERN ASIAN BLOCKING HIGH*

Synthesis analysis and singular value decomposition (SVD) methods were used to study the impact of surface air temperature (SAT) over Asian-Pacific region on the summertime northeastern Asian blocking high (NABH) with NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Data.The results showed that 500 hPa geopotential height and SAT fields over Asian-Pacific region shared the similar pattern of East Asian Pacific (EAP) wave train;there was steady remote response relationship between the EAP wave train in summer and the "+-+" pattern of tropical SAT in zonal direction from former winter to summer;there were two relative negative(positive) Walker circulations over the tropical Indian Ocean and Pacific when being more(less) summertime NABH. The influence of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) on the summertime NABH was possibly as follows.The special distribution of SSTA in tropical zonal direction continuously forced the tropical convection and zonal circulation from former winter to summer,and led them to act anomaly.Finally the abnormal conditions were transported to middle-high latitudes through EAP wave train and yielded the advantageous or disadvantageous atmospheric circulation background for the summertime NABH.     

水阳江洪峰与强降水

用1964－1999年水阳江水位和雨量资料，分析水阳江水位、面雨量变化规律和洪峰出现特征。结果表明，6月平均面雨量为241.5mm，7、8月平均面雨量分别为186.5mm、155.7mm。宣城出现13次超警戒水位过程；新河庄出现25次超警戒水位过程，且连续超警戒水位日数长。洪峰出现前一周为连阴雨天气，一周平均面雨量为164.5mm。季内日面雨量存在60天周期变化现象，新河庄日平均水位存在60－120天周期变化；1999年宣城日平均水位的小波分析结果为60天周期变化，与新河庄日平均水位功率谱分析结果一致。     

六盘山区夏秋季大气水汽和液态水特征初步分析

六盘山区是中国典型的农牧交错带和生态脆弱带,也是黄土高原重要的水源涵养地、生态保护区及国家级扶贫开发区。利用2017年6-11月隆德气象站地基多通道微波辐射计资料,结合同期平凉探空站及隆德地面降水等观测资料,分析了六盘山区夏秋季大气水汽、液态水变化特征。结果表明：六盘山区夏秋季在降水天气背景下,大气水汽含量和液态水含量均较高,分别为无降水天气背景下的1.4倍和7.0倍;降水天气背景下水汽在5000 m以下有明显的增加,且在此高度范围内的水汽密度随高度的递减率比无降水天气背景下明显偏小;各高度层的液态水相比无降水天气背景下均有明显增大,除6月外,主峰值均出现在0℃层高度层以下。六盘山区夏秋季各月中,6-9月。大气水汽含量高值区均出现在正午到傍晚时段,低值区均出现在日出前后;液态水含量在日出前、午后及傍晚分别出现峰值,最明显的峰值出现在午后。对一次对流性降水天气过程分析后发现,降水发生前40 min大气水汽含量和液态水含量出现两次明显的跃增,水汽向上输送不断加强,2500-7500 m高度的相对湿度明显增大。