珠江口近30a的SST变化特征分析

根据珠江口多个定点站近30a表层海水温度（SST）实测资料和气象站观测的气温资料，使用功率谱和小波分析方法，计算分析珠江口SST变化特点、上升趋势及其与El Nino／La Nino的响应关系．结果表明各月SST存在着1-2℃的海域差异，SST的年较差达10～11℃，SST的季节变化与全球气候变暖呈显著相关．1971-2003年SST呈显著上升趋势，其线性上升率为0．019～0．034℃／a，且珠江口外高于口内．El Nino／La Nino事件对珠江口SST变化的影响并非单一的对应关系．     

Comparison of AVHRR measurements of sea surface temperature with surface observations around New Zealand

Multi‐channel Advanced Very‐High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) images of sea surface temperature (SST) in the New Zealand region have been archived since 1989. A comparison of these data with conductivity‐temperature‐depth (CTD) and expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data shows that the AVHRR temperatures are about 7% too high (when expressed in °C). Once the AVHRR temperatures have been corrected, they measure SST with an uncertainty of about 0.7°C.     

CMIP5模式对南海SST的模拟和预估

分析了32个CMIP5模式对南海历史海表温度(SST)的模拟能力和不同排放情景下未来SST变化的预估。通过检验各气候模式对南海历史SST增温趋势和均方差的模拟,发现大部分模式都能较好地模拟出南海20世纪历史SST的基本特征和变化规律,但也有部分模式的模拟存在较大偏差。尽管这些模拟偏差较大的模式对SST多模式集合平均的影响不大,但会增加未来情景预估的不确定性。剔除15个模式后,分析了南海SST在RCP26、RCP45和RCP85三种排放情景下的变化趋势,发现在未来百年呈明显的增温趋势,多模式集合平均的增温趋势分别为0.42、1.50和3.30℃/(100a)。这些增温趋势在空间上变化不大,但随时间并不是均匀变化的。在前两种排放情景下,21世纪前期的增温趋势明显强于后期,而在RCP85情景下,21世纪后期的增温趋势强于前期。     

Difference characteristics of sea surface temperature observed by GLI and AMSR aboard ADEOS-II

This study compares infrared and microwave measurements of sea surface temperature (SST) obtained by a single satellite. The simultaneous observation from the Global Imager (GLI: infrared) and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR: microwave) aboard the Advanced Earth Observing Satellite-II (ADEOS-II) provided an opportunity for the intercomparison. The GLI-and AMSR-derived SSTs from April to October 2003 are analyzed with other ancillary data including surface wind speed and water vapor retrieved by AMSR and SeaWinds on ADEOS-II. We found no measurable bias (defined as GLI minus AMSR), while the standard deviation of difference is less than 1°C. In low water vapor conditions, the GLI SST has a positive bias less than 0.2°C, and in high water vapor conditions, it has a negative (positive) bias during the daytime (nighttime). The low spatial resolution of AMSR is another factor underlying the geographical distribution of the differences. The cloud detection problem in the GLI algorithm also affects the difference. The large differences in high-latitude region during the nighttime might be due to the GLI cloud-detection algorithm. AMSR SST has a negative bias during the daytime with low wind speed (less than 7 ms⁻¹), which might be related to the correction for surface wind effects in the AMSR SST algorithm.     

海表水温变动对东、黄海鲐鱼栖息地分布的影响

海表水温(SST)通常是表征鱼类栖息地分布的主要指标。本文根据1999—2007年我国大型灯光围网的鲐鱼生产统计数据,结合海洋遥感获得的SST,分析了渔汛期间鲐鱼栖息地的适宜SST范围,探讨了SST变动情况下鲐鱼栖息地的变化趋势。研究结果表明,东、黄海鲐鱼7—12月的适宜SST范围为15~30℃。根据政府气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第四份评估报告,本文拟定4种SST上升的情况,即(1)每月平均SST+0.5℃;(2)每月平均SST+1℃;(3)每月平均SST+2℃;(4)每月平均SST+4℃。结果显示,东、黄海鲐鱼的潜在栖息有明显向北移动的趋势,并且栖息地面积逐渐减小。研究认为,全球气候变化引起的SST上升,可能会对近海鲐鱼栖息地造成严重的影响。     

1321号台风“蝴蝶”强度变化特征和影响因素分析

利用NCEP/NCAR全球再分析格点资料（空间分辨率1°×1°）、台风实况资料及海南省气象台站观测资料,选取1321号台风＂蝴蝶＂为研究个例,从天气学原理高低空形势及动力、热力学物理量等多角度分析了＂蝴蝶＂强度演变特征及影响因素.研究结果表明,副热带高压与高空西风槽是影响此次台风的主要大尺度天气系统,弱冷空气南侵、南海海温偏高及越赤道气流强盛是＂蝴蝶＂迅速加强的重要原因.西风槽引导弱冷空气南侵使得台风外围环流气压梯度增加,斜压不稳定状态加剧;南海海温达到29℃,海温偏高使台风区域大气层结降低,深热对流发展;105°E越赤道气流强盛为台风提供了充沛水汽和能量.三者共同作用促使台风强度突然增强.另外,低层涡度、高层散度、湿位涡及水汽通量等物理量能够较好地表征＂蝴蝶＂强度变化特征.低层辐合流入、高层辐散流出为台风的加强提供了动力条件;湿位涡下负上正表明大气热力层结不稳定;水汽通量增加表明水汽条件充足.良好的动力条件、热力条件与水汽条件共同作用,使得＂蝴蝶＂在短时间内迅速加强为强台风.     

基于SOM的海表温度遥感数据集的EOF算法重构

针对海表温度数据集的数据缺失,提出了一种基于自组织映射算法(SOM)和经验正交函数算法(EOF)有机结合的重构缺失值的新方法。该方法应用了SOM的非线性估计,能够很好的反映数据集的非线性结构,并把SOM估计的结果用于EOF算法的初始化,克服了EOF对数据集初始化敏感的问题。在处理过程中,对奇异值分解使用了lanczos算子分解矩阵,提高了程序运行效率。此外,该方法还引入蒙特卡罗交叉校正集,确定最佳重构的EOF模态数,最终高精度计算出重构误差。使用AQUA遥感卫星海表温度数据进行实验,结果表明该方法能够很好地重构出缺失率高达83.23%的数据集,且重构精度高。     

中国近海海平面变化与ENSO的关系

利用中国沿海台站潮位和中国近海及赤道太平洋的卫星测高、海表温度、风及气压资料,分析了中国近海海平面变化与ENSO的关系。分析结果表明:中国沿海海平面季节变化受ENSO影响明显,在厄尔尼诺事件期间,中国沿海海平面Sa分潮的振幅明显减小,其中年振幅的历史极小值均出现厄尔尼诺年,不同区域历史极小值出现的年份不同;另外,中国沿海Sa分潮的振幅对厄尔尼诺事件的响应与其强弱有关,在强事件中,响应区域和幅度较大,弱事件中,响应区域和幅度偏小。在厄尔尼诺年,中国沿海海平面多低于相邻年份,并且其年际变化存在明显的2~3a、4~7a、准9a、11a和准19a的周期,其中4~7a的周期在冬春季节震荡最显著,其震荡幅度接近2cm。中国近海海平面与赤道东太平洋区域的海表温度年际变化之间存在反相关关系,其相关系数为-0.42;同时与Nio4和Nio3.4指数序列也呈现反相关关系。针对典型的1997/1998年尼诺事件发生前后的风场和气压场分析发现,尼诺发生前的冬半年,冬季风偏强,气压梯度加强,中国沿海海平面偏低;到了厄尔尼诺的盛期,出现较强的南风异常,气压梯度反向,季风转向,过渡到了厄尔尼诺事件的衰减期,为拉尼娜事件做准备,此时海平面偏高。     

Remote Sensing Observations of Ocean Surface Chlorophyll and Temperature with the Impact of Cyclones and Depressions over the Bay of Bengal Water

MODIS-Aqua derived eight-day composite chlorophyll concentration data analyzed to study the impact of cyclones and depressions on the Bay of Bengal productivity. A total of 15 cyclonic storms and depressions picked up from the India Meteorological Department datasets. MODIS-Aqua data analyzed during October 2002 to December 2009. There was observation of depressions (D), deep depressions (DD), cyclonic storms (CS), severe cyclonic storms (SCS), and very severe cyclonic storms (VSCS) with categories of intensities (“T” numbers 1.5–6) and wind speeds (25–108 knots). The chlorophyll concentration observed to be high (1.0–5.0 mg/m³) with the impact in the coastal and offshore waters. Quickscat scatterometer data showed high wind speed (about 10 meters/second). Sea surface temperature (SST) observed to be decreased (roughly 2°C) with effect of cyclones. The cyclone numbers, intensity, and chlorophyll concentration has been observed to be increasing from 2002 to 2009, with observation of VSCS “Sidr” during 2007. The study would be interesting to link carbon flux/sequestration, marine food chain, and harnessing fishery resources in a postcyclone period.     

7月份降雨分布型的预报方法

综述了我国７月份雨型的划分方法，各种雨型的多雨特点及环流特征，总结了各类雨型的预报判据，着眼于赤道东太平洋海温（ＳＳＴ），冬季（１－３月）５００ｈＰａ环流，春季（３－５月）西太平洋副热带高压，夏季（６－８月）赤道平流层纬向风准两年振荡（ＱＢＯ）等方面，分析了与７月雨型的关联。该方法对业务预报有很好的指导意义。